The 2025 Africa Cup of Nations title will be at stake when Senegal and Morocco lock horns at Complexe Sportif Moulay Abdellah Stadium on Sunday, 18 January 2026.
View our free Senegal vs Morocco predictions below.
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Senegal vs Morocco predictions: Low-scoring affair
Key stats
- Nine of the last 12 AFCON finals went below the 1.5-goal line.
- Fewer than three goals were scored in five of Morocco’s last six matches.
- Morocco have not lost a competitive game on home soil since November 2009
Correct score prediction: Senegal 0-1 Morocco
Senegal have had a near-perfect record in this competition and have kept four clean sheets in their six AFCON 2025 games so far.
However, they are up against hosts Morocco, who are currently on a 23-game unbeaten run and have lost only once since January 2024 (CHAN included). In fact, Walid Regragui's troops have not trailed at any point in this competition, and the only goal they've conceded so far came from the penalty spot.
Keeping in mind that Morocco won five of the last six meetings between these teams, we are confident that they will secure the AFCON 2025 title on home soil.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Senegal up against it
- AWAY: 11/5 (3.20) – 31.3%
- DRAW: 19/10 (2.90) – 34.5%
- HOME: 23/20 (2.15) – 46.5%
*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
This will be Senegal's fourth appearance in an AFCON final, and their first since 2021. The Teranga Lions will set their sights on a second Nations Cup title after winning only one of their previous three finals.
Like their opponents, Morocco have one AFCON title to their name, which they won in 1976. This will be their second final since then, and their first since 2004.
It is worth mentioning that an AFCON host nation has never lost a final in regulation time. All three defeats for host nations in AFCON finals came after extra time, with two of those going all the way to penalty shootouts.
Moreover, the last three host nations to reach the final have won this competition, and the last time a host nation lost in the final of the Nations Cup was in 2000.
Ahead of the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations final, Morocco are the expected winners at 23/20 (2.15). Teams with these odds usually have a 46.5% probability of winning.
Don’t forget to check out more of our best betting tips and predictions after you’ve dissected our Senegal vs Morocco predictions.
Also, keeping in mind that Morocco have five clean sheets in their six matches in this competition, under 0.5 Senegal goals has an appealing look at 6/5 (2.20). That one has a 45.5% chance of landing.
Most recent H2Hs: One-sided affair
Senegal have managed only one win in their last six clashes with Morocco, with five defeats in that stretch. The last encounter between these sides was in the CHAN semifinal in August last year; Morocco won on penalties.
Interestingly, while Morocco have an 18-6-7 win-draw-loss record in 31 previous meetings between these outfits, this will be their first-ever skirmish in the Nations Cup (qualifiers excluded).
African Nations Championship 26/08/25
Morocco
Senegal
International Match 09/10/20
Morocco
Senegal
Senegal preview: Couple of key absences
Captain Kalidou Koulibaly is unavailable for the Teranga Lions due to accumulated yellow cards from the semifinal clash against Egypt, with Mamadou Sarr likely taking his place at the heart of the defence. Interestingly, Koulibaly was also absent from the 2021 final triumph over Egypt, which could be a good omen for the West Africans as they won the title then.
Habib Diarra is also suspended for this clash after being booked in the same battle against the Pharaohs, and Lamine Camara is highly expected to replace him.
Sadio Mane made the difference for Senegal against Egypt, and the former Liverpool star will be eager to steer the team to their second Nations Cup title in history.
Predicted lineup: Mendy (GK), Diatta, Sarr, Niakhate, Diouf, Camara, I. Gueye, P. Gueye, Ndiaye, Jackson & Mane.
Last five matches
- Senegal 1-0 Egypt
- Mali 0-1 Senegal
- Senegal 3-1 Sudan
- Benin 0-3 Senegal
- Senegal 1-1 DR Congo
Morocco preview: Eyeing their first title in 50 years
Morocco are still missing the services of Romain Saiss, Sofyan Amrabat, and Azzedine Ounahi, with these players unavailable for the Atlas Lions due to injury.
Brahim Diaz, who has been in excellent form for Morocco in this tournament will hope to inspire the team in the final third alongside Ayoub El Kaabi and exciting winger Abdessamad Ezzalzouli.
Predicted lineup: Bono (GK), Hakimi, Aguerd, Masina, Mazraoui, El Aynaoui, Saibari, El Khannouss, Diaz, Ezzalzouli & El Kaabi.
Last five matches
- Nigeria 0-0 (2) AP (4) Morocco
- Cameroon 0-2 Morocco
- Morocco 1-0 Tanzania
- Zambia 0-3 Morocco
- Morocco 1-1 Mali
Player to watch: Brahim Diaz
Brahim Diaz has been nothing short of impressive in this competition, having scored in each of his first five AFCON 2025 appearances. The Real Madrid midfielder, who has almost certainly secured the Golden Boot, will look to return to scoring ways after drawing blanks in the semifinal against Nigeria.