All eyes will be on Reale Arena when two Basque teams battle for a place in the final of the Copa del Rey on Wednesday, 4 March 2026.
View our free Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao predictions below.
Contents
Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao predictions: Low-scoring affair
Key stats
- Four of the last five Basque derbies went below the 2.5-goal mark.
- Athletic Bilbao have no wins in their last nine trips to Reale Arena.
- Real Sociedad are unbeaten in their last six home games across all competitions.
Correct score prediction: Real Sociedad 1-0 Athletic Bilbao
To be fair, Athletic Bilbao have had an impressive run of results on the road in recent weeks, with a 3-1-1 win-draw-loss record in their last five away games.
However, Ernesto Valverde's troops suffered a 1-0 home defeat in the first leg of this tie and are without a win in nine consecutive trips to this stadium.
Interestingly, the last two Copa del Rey clashes between these Basque giants ended 1-0 in favour of Real Sociedad. Keeping in mind that the hosts have three wins in their last four home games, we believe they will win both legs of this tie.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Athletic Bilbao up against it
- HOME: 21/20 (2.05) – 48.8%
- DRAW: 12/5 (3.40) – 29.4%
- AWAY: 5/2 (3.50) – 28.6%
*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Athletic Bilbao will look to overturn a one-goal deficit when they take on their biggest rivals on Wednesday. They are coming off a 1-1 draw at Rayo Vallecano and are unbeaten in three consecutive games (W2, D1).
On the other hand, Real Sociedad ran out 1-0 winners in their La Liga clash with Mallorca last weekend. They have been a tough team to beat, losing only once in their last 14 matches across all competitions.
Ahead of the second leg of this Copa del Rey semi-final tie, Real Sociedad are the expected winners at 21/20 (2.05). Teams with these odds usually have a 48.8% probability of winning.
Don’t forget to check out more of our best betting tips and predictions after you’ve dissected our Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao predictions.
Also, keeping in mind that Real Sociedad opened the scoring in the last three Basque derbies, Real Sociedad to score first has an appealing look at 4/5 (1.80). That one has a 55.6% chance of landing.
Most recent H2Hs: Real Sociedad have bragging rights
This will be the fourth encounter between these teams this season, and Athletic Bilbao are still hunting for their first win against Real Sociedad (D1, L2). In fact, Sociedad are unbeaten in the last four Basque derbies.
Spain Copa del Rey 11/02/26
Athletic Bilbao
Real Sociedad
Spain La Liga 01/02/26
Athletic Bilbao
Real Sociedad
Spain La Liga 01/11/25
Real Sociedad
Athletic Bilbao
Spain La Liga 04/05/25
Real Sociedad
Athletic Bilbao
Spain La Liga 24/11/24
Athletic Bilbao
Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad preview: Eyeing the sweep
Real Sociedad are missing some key players due to injury, with Takefusa Kubo and Orri Steinn Oskarsson both absent and unlikely to return until later this month.
Former Real Madrid defender Alvaro Odriozola has picked up a long-term cruciate ligament injury, effectively ruling him out for the remainder of the campaign.
Benat Turrientes, who scored the only goal when these sides last met in February, is expected to partner Jon Gorrotxategi in a double pivot. Mikel Oyarzabal should lead the line, while Goncalo Guedes and Brais Mendez feature from the wide areas as the hosts eye a return to the final of the Copa del Rey for the first time since 2020.
Predicted lineup: Remiro (GK), Aramburu, Caleta-Car, Herrera, Gomez, Gorrotxategi, Turrientes, Guedes, Soler, Mendez & Oyarzabal
Last five matches
- 28/02/26: Mallorca 0-1 Real Sociedad (La Liga)
- 21/02/26: Real Sociedad 3-3 Real Oviedo (La Liga)
- 14/02/26: Real Madrid 4-1 Real Sociedad (La Liga)
- 11/02/26: Athletic Bilbao 0-1 Real Sociedad (Copa del Rey)
- 07/02/26: Real Sociedad 3-1 Elche (La Liga)
Athletic Bilbao preview: Few injury concerns
Athletic Bilbao, who were Copa del Rey champions in 2024, will have Nico Williams and Maroan Sannadi both sidelined with groin and knee injuries, respectively.
Long-term absentees Unai Eguiluz and Benat Prados will also be unavailable for the visitors, with both players ruled out due to tendon ruptures.
Seeking to overturn a 1-0 deficit, Ernesto Valverde will look to line up his best men for this game, with the likes of Oihan Sancet, Inaki Williams, and Gorka Guruzeta all expected to start.
Predicted lineup: Simon (GK), Gorosabel, Paredes, Laporte, Berchiche, De Galarreta, Jauregizar, Serrano, Sancet, Guruzeta & I. Williams
Last five matches
- 28/02/26: Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Athletic Bilbao (La Liga)
- 20/02/26: Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Elche (La Liga)
- 15/02/26: Real Oviedo 1-2 Athletic Bilbao (La Liga)
- 11/02/26: Athletic Bilbao 0-1 Real Sociedad (Copa del Rey)
- 08/02/26: Athletic Bilbao 4-2 Levante (La Liga)
Player to watch: Mikel Oyarzabal
Mikel Oyarzabal will look to return to scoring ways after drawing blanks in his last two appearances. The 28-year-old, who has 24 goal contributions across all competitions for club and country this season, will be called upon to provide goals on Wednesday night.