Sparks will fly as Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano go toe-to-toe with each other in the 22nd round of La Liga at the Bernabeu Stadium on Sunday, 1 February 2026.
View our free Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano predictions below.
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Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano predictions: Goals expected
Key stats
- At least four goals were scored in four of Real Madrid's last six matches across all competitions.
- Four of Rayo Vallecano's last five games went above the 2.5-goal line.
- Both teams were on the scoresheet in five of Real Madrid's last seven skirmishes with Rayo Vallecano.
Correct score prediction: Real Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano
To be fair, Rayo Vallecano have held their own against Real Madrid in recent years, as four of the last five clashes between these sides ended in stalemates.
However, Inigo Perez's troops are going through a rough patch, having lost three consecutive matches. They are up against a Real Madrid side that won their last four home games across all competitions.
Considering Rayo's recent shortcomings, we are confident that Real Madrid will claim all the spoils after 90 minutes.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Real Madrid clearly favoured
- HOME: 3/10 (1.30) – 76.9%
- DRAW: 19/4 (5.75) – 17.4%
- AWAY: 8/1 (9.00) – 11.1%
*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Real Madrid suffered a disappointing 4-2 defeat in their UEFA Champions League encounter with Benfica earlier this week in a game they finished with nine men.
On the other hand, Rayo Vallecano are coming off a 3-1 home defeat at the hands of Osasuna. They have now lost three in a row and are 16th in La Liga ahead of their encounter with second-placed Real Madrid.
Considering their winning streak at the Bernabeu, it is unsurprising that Real Madrid are the expected winners at 3/10 (1.30). Teams with these odds generally have a 76.9% probability of winning.
Don’t forget to check out more of our best betting tips and predictions after you’ve dissected our Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano predictions.
It is also worth mentioning that there were at least 11 corners in five of Real Madrid's last six matches and in four of Rayo Vallecano's last five games. For this reason, over 10.5 total corners has an appealing look at 9/10 (1.90). That one has a 52.6% chance of landing.
Most recent H2Hs: Madrid's dominance to continue?
Rayo Vallecano lost 12 of their last 13 trips to the Bernabeu and have not beaten Real Madrid at this stadium since January 1996.
However, although Real Madrid are unbeaten in six consecutive clashes between these outfits, it is fair to note that four of the last five H2Hs ended in stalemates, including the reverse fixture.
Spain La Liga 09/11/25
Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid
Spain La Liga 09/03/25
Real Madrid
Rayo Vallecano
Spain La Liga 14/12/24
Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid
Spain La Liga 18/02/24
Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid
Spain La Liga 05/11/23
Real Madrid
Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid preview: Defensive injury crisis continues
Real Madrid have a few injury concerns ahead of this game, as defenders Eder Militao, Ferland Mendy, and Antonio Rudiger are all ruled out.
Trent Alexander-Arnold could be back amongst the substitutes after the Englishman resumed training with the squad in recent days.
Predicted lineup: Courtois (GK), Valverde, Asencio, Huijsen, Carreras, Camavinga, Bellingham, Guler, Mastantuono, Vinicius Jr & Mbappe.
Last five matches
- Benfica 4-2 Real Madrid
- Villarreal 0-2 Real Madrid
- Real Madrid 6-1 Monaco
- Real Madrid 2-0 Levante
- Albacete 3-2 Real Madrid
Rayo Vallecano preview: Hoping to halt their losing streak
Rayo remain without Diego Mendez and Abdul Mumin due to serious knee injuries, while Andrei Ratiu and Ivan Balliu are doubtful for this clash because of hamstring problems.
Predicted lineup: Batalla (GK), Chavarria, Mendy, Lejeune, Balliu, Lopez, Ciss, Garcia, Palazon, Akhomach & De Frutos.
Last five matches
- Rayo Vallecano 1-3 Osasuna
- Celta Vigo 3-0 Rayo Vallecano
- Alaves 2-0 Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Mallorca
- Granada 1-3 Rayo Vallecano
Player to watch: Kylian Mbappe
Kylian Mbappe has been nothing short of impressive, scoring braces in each of his last three appearances across all competitions. The former Paris Saint-Germain forward is on a four-game scoring streak and will look to extend that run this weekend.