Real Madrid play their second game at the FIFA Club World Cup on Sunday. Our Real Madrid vs Pachuca prediction considers whether they can claim their first win under new boss Xabi Alonso.
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Real Madrid vs Pachuca prediction: Garcia to score in low-scoring win for Los Blancos
Key stats
- Our Real Madrid vs Pachuca betting tips take into account that all of the last four games involving Los Blancos have produced three or fewer goals.
- The Spaniards haven’t won any of their last 28 matches by more than two goals.
- Pachuca averaged only 1.65 points per game in the 2024/25 Liga MX Clausura, finishing eighth.
Correct score prediction: Real Madrid 2-0 Pachuca
It wasn’t a particularly convincing start to the Alonso era at Real Madrid, but the former Bayer Leverkusen boss has had less than a fortnight to work with these players, and they are clearly still a work in progress.
They should grow into this tournament, and they ought to find this game considerably more comfortable against a Pachuca side that hasn’t been particularly impressive in 2025.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Los Blancos the odds-on favourites
- REAL MADRID: 2/7 (1.29) – 77.8%
- DRAW: 5/1 (6.00) – 16.7%
- PACHUCA: 9/1 (10.00) – 10.0%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Los Blancos are the favourites according to the Real Madrid vs Pachuca odds, with an implied probability of 77.8% that they win this match.
They started with a 1-1 draw against Al Hilal who ended their 11-match Club World Cup winning streak (including previous formats). That was the first time Real Madrid had failed to win a Club World Cup match since 2000.
As for Pachuca, they got their campaign going with a 2-1 defeat to Salzburg, with Bryan Gonzalez’s goal not enough for the Mexicans.
For more from the upcoming matches, today’s free football betting tips look at some of the best picks.
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Most recent H2Hs: Second meeting in six months
Our Real Madrid vs Pachuca prediction suggests this will go the way of the team from La Liga, as was the case when these sides met earlier on in the 2024/25 season at the FIFA Intercontinental Cup.
That match finished 3-0 in favour of Real Madrid with Kylian Mbappe, Rodrygo and Vinicius Junior grabbing the goals.
Real Madrid preview: Selection problems for Alonso
Mbappe has been released from hospital after a bout of gastroenteritis, but he may not be in a good enough condition to feature here. Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao, David Alaba, Eduardo Camavinga, Endrick and Ferland Mendy are also all still fighting back to fitness after injuries and are unlikely to be involved.
Predicted Lineup: Courtois (GK), F. Garcia, Huijsen, Asencio, Alexander-Arnold, Bellingham, Tchouameni, Valverde, Vinicius, G. Garcia & Rodrygo
Spain La Liga 11/05/25
L Barcelona 4 Real Madrid 3 Spain La Liga 04/05/25
W Celta Vigo 2 Real Madrid 3 Spain Copa del Rey 26/04/25
L Barcelona 3 Real Madrid 2 Spain La Liga 23/04/25
W Getafe 0 Real Madrid 1 Spain La Liga 20/04/25
W Athletic Bilbao 0 Real Madrid 1
Pachuca preview: Few changes expected
The underdogs are not expected to change too much from their opening game. They are missing Andres Micolta to a long-term injury.
Predicted Lineup: Moreno (GK), B. Gonzalez, Pereira, Bauermann, L. Rodriguez, Montiel, Pedraza, A. Dominguez, Palavecino, Kenedy & Rondon
Mexico Liga MX 11/05/25
L Club America 2 Pachuca 0 Mexico Liga MX 08/05/25
D Club America 0 Pachuca 0 Mexico Liga MX 28/04/25
W Monterrey 1 Pachuca 2 Mexico Liga MX 21/04/25
L Atletico San Luis 2 Pachuca 1 Mexico Liga MX 16/04/25
D Tigres UANL 0 Pachuca 0
Player to watch – Gonzalo Garcia
With Mbappe and Endrick out, Gonzalo Garcia was handed a start up front in Alonso’s first game. The 21-year-old academy product scored the opening goal of this new era at Real Madrid and should keep his place on Sunday.
Prolific in the Spanish third tier
Garcia scored 25 goals this season in the Primera Federacion for Real Madrid Castilla. He clearly has an eye for goal and registered six shots against Al Hilal last time out.