Real Madrid travel to Vitoria this weekend, potentially still reeling from a heavy defeat in Europe. Our Alaves vs Real Madrid prediction and La Liga betting tips consider whether Carlo Ancelotti’s side can bounce back in style here.
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Alaves vs Real Madrid prediction: Kike to strike first in draw
Key stats
- Our Alaves vs Real Madrid betting tips take into account that Los Blancos have gone nine matches without keeping a clean sheet.
- 50% of Alaves matches since Chacho Coudet took over have ended in draws.
- They’ve a reasonably strong home defensive record, with only 1.07 goals per game conceded in front of their own fans this term.
Correct score prediction: Alaves 1-1 Real Madrid
Real Madrid have endured a miserable week, losing in the league and in Europe, and those results had been coming, with some really poor defensive performances in recent weeks.
There are issues across the pitch, particularly in midfield, where they’ve struggled to get much control in the absence of Dani Ceballos in recent weeks. Alaves have only lost one of their last five in La Liga, and the strugglers look capable of getting something here.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Bookies still favour Madrid
- HOME: 4/1 (5.00) – 20.0%
- DRAW: 3/1 (4.00) – 25.0%
- AWAY: 13/20 (1.65) – 60.6%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
The visitors are the favourites according to the Alaves vs Real Madrid odds, with an implied probability of 60.6% that they win this match.
They collapsed in the second half at Arsenal on Tuesday, with two stunning Declan Rice free-kicks helping to condemn them to a 3-0 defeat in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final.
As for Alaves, they head into this following an excellent 1-0 win at Girona in a boost to their survival prospects. Carlos Vicente grabbed the only goal.
For more from the upcoming games, today’s football betting tips look at some of the best picks.
Most recent H2Hs: Los Blancos dominant
Our Alaves vs Real Madrid prediction suggests the visitors will fall short of a seventh straight victory against this opposition.
They’ve won on all four visits to Vitoria since a 1-0 defeat in 2018.
Spain La Liga 24/09/24
Real Madrid
CD Alaves
Spain La Liga 14/05/24
Real Madrid
CD Alaves
Spain La Liga 21/12/23
CD Alaves
Real Madrid
Spain La Liga 19/02/22
Real Madrid
CD Alaves
Spain La Liga 14/08/21
CD Alaves
Real Madrid
Alaves preview: Hosts rocked by three suspensions
Valencia defeated Los Blancos last time out despite three suspensions, and Alaves are bidding to do likewise, with Antonio Sivera, Tomas Conechny and Jon Guridi all banned.
Predicted Lineup: Owono (GK), M. Sanchez, Abqar, Mourino, Tenaglia, Blanco, Alena, Jordan, C. Vicente, C. Martin & Kike
Spain La Liga 11/05/25
L Athletic Bilbao 1 CD Alaves 0 Spain La Liga 03/05/25
D Atletico Madrid 0 CD Alaves 0 Spain La Liga 23/04/25
W Real Sociedad 0 CD Alaves 1 Spain La Liga 20/04/25
D Sevilla 1 CD Alaves 1 Spain La Liga 13/04/25
L Real Madrid 1 CD Alaves 0
Real Madrid preview: Light rotation expected
We’re likely to see a few changes from Real Madrid ahead of the second leg against Arsenal. Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao and Ferland Mendy are still out injured, while David Alaba is rated doubtful.
Predicted Lineup: Courtois (GK), F. Garcia, Asencio, Tchouameni, L. Vazquez, Camavinga, Valverde, Vinicius, Bellingham, Rodrygo & Mbappe
Spain La Liga 11/05/25
L Barcelona 4 Real Madrid 3 Spain La Liga 04/05/25
W Celta Vigo 2 Real Madrid 3 Spain Copa del Rey 26/04/25
L Barcelona 3 Real Madrid 2 Spain La Liga 23/04/25
W Getafe 0 Real Madrid 1 Spain La Liga 20/04/25
W Athletic Bilbao 0 Real Madrid 1
Player to watch – Kike Garcia
Alaves aren’t a team blessed with many huge attacking weapons, but they’ve been able to count upon Kike Garcia for goals this term. The experienced striker has netted 11 times in 28 appearances in the Spanish top flight.
Kike fast out of the blocks
The former Middlesbrough striker has tended to make a fast start to games this season and 45% of his goals in La Liga have come inside the opening 30 minutes.