Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid prediction, odds & betting tips – 18/02/2024

Rayo Vallecano
18/02/24 - 13:00

Finished

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Real Madrid

Rayo Vallecano - Real Madrid

Spain Primera Liga - Estadio de Vallecas

rayo vallecano vs real madrid predictions
Vinicius Junior and Eduardo Camavinga celebrate – Photo by Icon Sport

There’s a Madrid derby on Sunday in La Liga as Rayo Vallecano and Real Madrid clash with the hosts playing their first game under new management. Our Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid prediction considers whether it’ll be a dream start for Iñigo Perez who is just 36 years old.

Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid prediction: Baptism of fire for new Rayo boss

Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid predictions
Our pick

⚽Total Goals prediction

Over 2.5

⚽ Correct Score prediction

Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Real Madrid

⚽ Anytime Goalscorer prediction

Vincius Junior to Score Anytime

Rayo Vallecano haven’t been terrible but a failure to convert chances means they’ve taken just one point from their last five games, enough to convince the board to dismiss Francisco. 

Real Madrid meanwhile have won five out of six in all competitions including the 4-0 demolition of Girona last weekend to take firm control of the title race.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Real the clear favourites

  • HOME: 17/4 (5.25) – 19.0%
  • DRAW: 14/5 (3.80) – 26.3%
  • AWAY: 8/13 (1.62) – 61.9%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

The Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid odds point to Los Blancos continuing their strong form, although they did need Andriy Lunin to pull off a string of fine saves to beat RB Leipzig 1-0 in midweek in the Champions League.

Last five H2Hs: Rayo competitive in recent derbies

Spain Primera Liga 05/11/23

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

0
Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano

0

Spain Primera Liga 24/05/23

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

2
Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano

1

Spain Primera Liga 07/11/22

Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano

3
Real Madrid

Real Madrid

2

Spain Primera Liga 26/02/22

Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano

0
Real Madrid

Real Madrid

1

Spain Primera Liga 06/11/21

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

2
Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano

1

Rayo Vallecano were inspired in a 3-2 win in this fixture last term under Andoni Iraola and recent history points to this being close with Los Blancos not winning any of the last five clashes by more than a single goal.

Team news and form guide

Rayo Vallecano: Sliding towards a relegation battle

Rayo play their first game under Iñigo Perez who was previously assistant to Andoni Iraola here, with Francisco paying the price for a run of just one win in 14 league games.

Predicted Lineup: Dimitrievski (GK), Espino, Lejeune, Aridane, Balliu, Ciss, Valentin, Alvaro Garcia, Trejo, Isi Palazon, Camello

Spain Primera Liga 26/02/24

L

Girona

Girona

3

Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano

0

Spain Primera Liga 18/02/24

D

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

1

Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano

1

Spain Primera Liga 11/02/24

L

Mallorca

Mallorca

2

Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano

1

Spain Primera Liga 05/02/24

L

Sevilla

Sevilla

2

Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano

1

Spain Primera Liga 31/01/24

L

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid

2

Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano

1

Real Madrid: Hard to look past Los Blancos for the title

Despite huge defensive selection issues, Real Madrid come into the game after two wins to nil over usually free-scoring sides in the shape of Girona and RB Leipzig.

Predicted Lineup: Lunin (GK), Fran Garcia, Nacho, Tchouameni, Carvajal, Modric, Camavinga, Valverde, Vinicius, Joselu, Rodrygo

Spain Primera Liga 25/02/24

W

Sevilla

Sevilla

0

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

1

Spain Primera Liga 18/02/24

D

Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano

1

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

1

Others 14/02/24

D

Man Utd

Man Utd

0

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

0

UEFA Champions League 13/02/24

W

RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig

0

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

1

Spain Primera Liga 10/02/24

W

Girona

Girona

0

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

4

Our free expert picks: 2-1 to Real Madrid with Vinicius on target again

Our betting tips for this Madrid derby point to a road win and you back Real Madrid and Both Teams to Score at 5/2 (3.50), an implied probability of 28.6%.

We’re also backing Vinicius Junior to score first in our La Liga first scorer predictions this weekend. He’s priced at 9/2 (5.50) to net first, an implied probability of 18.2%

Hot tip – Over 2.5 Goals

  • Our Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid prediction suggests the away team might not totally get away with their defensive problems again, having been fortunate not to concede in Leipzig.
  • This fixture in Vallecas has a history of goals with two of the last four meetings ending with 3-2 scorelines.

Other tips

Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Real Madrid

  • Rayo have won just one of their last 14 in La Liga with confidence low in the home camp.
  • Real Madrid have lost just one match in the league this term.

Vincius Junior to score anytime

  • Our Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid betting tips point to Vincius being the biggest threat for the visitors, particularly with top scorer Jude Bellingham missing due to injury.
  • Vinicius is in good form with six in his last seven in all competitions.
Rodrygo
Rodrygo Goes in action against RB Leipzig in midweek – Photo by Icon Sport

Player to watch – Rodrygo

The other main danger man for the visitors is likely to be Rodrygo who has eight goals and four assists in La Liga this term.

Striking early in the Second Half

Rodrygo has been particularly threatening in the Second Half with half of his league goals coming between the 46th and 75th minutes.


Avatar of Mark Sochon
Mark Sochon

Mark is a freelance football writer based in Madrid. He regularly attends and covers La Liga matches around Spain, whilst also following football across Europe.