Alaves are hoping to boost their survival prospects with a home win on Saturday. Our Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano prediction and La Liga betting tips consider whether Chacho Coudet’s side can claim what would be a big three points.
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Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano prediction: Low-scoring draw in Vitoria
Key stats
- Our Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano betting tips take into account that the visiting team’s away matches this season in the league average just 1.64 goals per game.
- Only Girona have drawn more matches than Rayo Vallecano (10) in La Liga this term.
- 57% of Alaves matches since Coudet took over have ended in score draws.
Correct score prediction: Alaves 1-1 Rayo Vallecano
Alaves have played reasonably well in most of their games since the change in coach, but they’ve consistently struggled to turn one point into three.
That trend may continue here against a Rayo side that defends well and has avoided defeat in 64% of their away games this season in La Liga.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Alaves the favourites with home advantage
- HOME: 5/4 (2.25) – 44.4%
- DRAW: 21/10 (3.10) – 32.3%
- AWAY: 12/5 (3.40) – 29.4%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
The hosts are the favourites according to the Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano odds, with an implied probability of 44.4% that they win this match.
They head into this game following a 2-2 draw at Las Palmas that would have felt like a defeat given their opponents scored twice after the 90th minute to level the game.
Rayo also drew 2-2 last time out, with Real Sociedad the opposition in Vallecas.
For more from the upcoming matches in Europe, today’s football tips look at some of the best picks.
Most recent H2Hs: Home advantage usually key
Our Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano prediction suggests this one could end level, but the last five meetings have all been won by the side playing at home.
There have been two or fewer goals scored in five of the last six meetings in the Basque Country.
Spain La Liga 26/10/24
Rayo Vallecano
CD Alaves
Spain La Liga 10/03/24
CD Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
Spain La Liga 15/09/23
Rayo Vallecano
CD Alaves
Spain La Liga 16/04/22
CD Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
Spain La Liga 18/12/21
Rayo Vallecano
CD Alaves
Alaves preview: Hosts at full strength
Coudet has a full squad to pick from here, with no reported Alaves injuries ahead of this game.
Predicted Lineup: Sivera (GK), M. Sanchez, Mourino, Abqar, Tenaglia, Blanco, Alena, Jordan, Vicente, Martin & K. Garcia
Spain La Liga 11/05/25
L Athletic Bilbao 1 CD Alaves 0 Spain La Liga 03/05/25
D Atletico Madrid 0 CD Alaves 0 Spain La Liga 23/04/25
W Real Sociedad 0 CD Alaves 1 Spain La Liga 20/04/25
D Sevilla 1 CD Alaves 1 Spain La Liga 13/04/25
L Real Madrid 1 CD Alaves 0
Rayo Vallecano preview: Defensive issues for Perez
The visitors are missing their first choice centre-backs with Florian Lejeune suspended and Abdul Mumin injured. Striker Sergio Camello is also out.
Predicted Lineup: Batalla (GK), Chavarria, A. Hernandez, Pelayo, Ratiu, U. Lopez, Ciss, I. Palazon, A. Garcia, Embarba & De Frutos
Spain La Liga 09/05/25
W Las Palmas 0 Rayo Vallecano 1 Spain La Liga 02/05/25
W Getafe 0 Rayo Vallecano 1 Spain La Liga 24/04/25
L Atletico Madrid 3 Rayo Vallecano 0 Spain La Liga 19/04/25
D Valencia 1 Rayo Vallecano 1 Spain La Liga 13/04/25
L Athletic Bilbao 3 Rayo Vallecano 1
Player to watch – Kike Garcia
Alaves have at times been carried in the final third by the goal threat of Kike Garcia. The experienced striker has scored 11 times in 27 appearances in La Liga this term.
Kike striking early and late
The 35-year-old has been fast out of the blocks, with 45% of his league goals coming in the opening 30 minutes. He hasn’t netted once between the 30th and 60th minutes, but does have four goals after the 75th minute to his name.