Porto vs Benfica prediction, odds & betting tips – 03/03/2024

03/03/24 - 20:30

Finished

5

-

0

FC Porto - Benfica

Portugal Primeira Liga - Estadio do Dragao

Here are our Portuguese league predictions for Porto vs Benfica on Sunday.

This is one of the biggest derby matches in European football and the result this weekend could play a big part in the title race. Derby matches don't come much bigger than Porto vs Benfica but these four upcoming derby clashes do compare favourably.

Porto vs Benfica predictions: Close game expected

Key Stats

• Under 2.5 goals have been produced in four of the last five meetings between Porto and Benfica.
• Porto and Benfica have only lost one of their last six matches in all competitions and the visitors have drawn two of their last three away games.
• Both teams have scored in four of Benfica's last six matches, as well as in three of Porto's last five outings.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Porto the slight favourites

• HOME: 29/20 (2.45) – 40.8%
• DRAW: 5/2 (3.50) – 28.6%
• AWAY: 19/10 (2.90) – 34.5%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

Porto are the expected winners of this game with a probability of 40.8%, but we are expecting a very tight and tense 90 minutes between these two giants of Portuguese football.

With both Porto and Benfica only losing one of their last six outings in league and cup, you can see why we're backing a stalemate between the pair this weekend.

For more football betting tips on the game, check out the Anytime Goalscorer market. Francisco Evanilson is the favourite to score for Porto this weekend at 2/1 (3.00) which has a probability of 33.3%, while a bet on Benfica's Marcos Leonardo to score is priced at 11/5 (3.20) with a probability of 31.3%.

Last five H2Hs: Benfica have had the better of Porto this season

Portugal Primeira Liga 29/09/23

Benfica

1

FC Porto

0

Portugal Super Cup 09/08/23

Benfica

2

FC Porto

0

Portugal Primeira Liga 07/04/23

Benfica

1

FC Porto

2

Portugal Primeira Liga 21/10/22

FC Porto

0

Benfica

1

Portugal Primeira Liga 07/05/22

Benfica

0

FC Porto

1

Benfica have won three and lost four of their last seven matches against Porto, but the visitors have already beaten their hosts twice this season. Benfica ran out 2-0 winners in the Super Cup in August and followed that up the following month with a 1-0 home win in the Primeira Liga.

Team news and form guide

Porto: Unbeaten in last four matches

The hosts could be without Zaidu Sanusi, Mehdi Taremi, Ivan Marcano and Gabriel Veron all of whom have injuries.

Predicted lineup: Costa (GK), Pepe, Wendell, Mário, Otávio, Eustáquio, Jaime, Varela, Aquino, Evanilson & Conceição

UEFA Europa League 03/10/24

D

Man Utd

3

FC Porto

3

Portugal Primeira Liga 29/09/24

W

Arouca

0

FC Porto

4

UEFA Europa League 25/09/24

L

Bodo/Glimt

3

FC Porto

2

Portugal Primeira Liga 21/09/24

W

Guimaraes

0

FC Porto

3

Portugal Primeira Liga 15/09/24

W

SC Farense

1

FC Porto

2

Benfica: Lost in the cup in midweek

Juan Bernat is a big doubt for Sunday's derby match but is expected back from his long-term injury within the next month.

Predicted lineup: Trubin (GK), Otamendi, Bah, Silva, Di María, Mário, Aursnes, Rafa, Kökçü, Neves & Neres 

UEFA Champions League 02/10/24

W

Atletico Madrid

0

Benfica

4

Portugal Primeira Liga 28/09/24

W

Gil Vicente

1

Benfica

5

Portugal Primeira Liga 23/09/24

W

Boavista

0

Benfica

3

UEFA Champions League 19/09/24

W

Crvena Zvezda

1

Benfica

2

Portugal Primeira Liga 14/09/24

W

Santa Clara

1

Benfica

4

Player to watch – Rafa

Rafa could provide the key to Benfica coming away with another good result against Porto this weekend.

The 30-year-old is having a fantastic season both in front of goal and creatively. Arguably, Rafa has been Benfica's best player this season, someone who could guide the club to the league title if he continues in this vein of form.

Rafa the key for positive Benfica result

Rafa top scores in the league for Benfica this season with 12 goals but it has been the forward's creativity that has really impressed the Benfica fans. With 11 assists in the Primeira Liga alone, Rafa is the creative force in this Benfica team as well as being their main source of goals.