Bottom-of-the-table Plymouth head into Saturday's relegation six-pointer at home to Derby on the back of a morale-boosting away win in midweek.
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Plymouth vs Derby prediction: Possible home win on the cards?
Key Stats
- Derby have lost 12 of their 18 away games in the league this season, winning just once on the road so far.
- Both teams have found the back of the net in 72% of Plymouth's home games this season.
- Some 61% of Derby's away games in the Championship have ended with both teams scoring.
Correct score prediction: Plymouth 2-1 Derby
We expect a close game between these two struggling clubs but have backed Plymouth to come out on top. The hosts score an average of 1.67 goals per home game and we've backed them to score twice against a Derby side that are only scoring an average of 0.78 goals per away game in the Championship.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Derby the slight favourite
- HOME: 21/10 (3.10) – 32.3%
- DRAW: 23/10 (3.30) – 30.3%
- AWAY: 13/8 (2.63) – 38.1%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Derby are the expected winner of this game with a probability of 38.1% but we fancy Plymouth to upset the odds this weekend.
You can find all our predictions for today's games on our football betting tips page.
Most recent H2Hs: Plymouth in front
Saturday's hosts have picked up three wins, one draw and suffered one defeat from their last five games against Derby County, with the pair drawing 1-1 in November's reverse league meeting.
England Championship 09/11/24
Derby
Plymouth
England League 1 07/03/23
Plymouth
Derby
England League 1 28/01/23
Plymouth
Derby
England League 1 03/09/22
Derby
Plymouth
Plymouth preview: Big win at Pompey
Plymouth made the trip to Portsmouth on Wednesday night hoping to secure a rare away win.
Mustapha Bundu fired the visitors in front just before the interval and top scorer Ryan Hardie scored his sixth league goal of the campaign early in the second half to make it 2-0. Portsmouth did score a goal late on but it proved to be no more than a consolation.
Defender Brendan Galloway is out for the rest of the season due to a hip injury.
Predicted lineup: Hazard (GK), Pleguezuelo, Puchacz, Katic, Sorinola, Talovierov, Houghton, Gyabi, Hardie, Obafemi & Bundu
England Championship 03/05/25
L
Leeds
2
Plymouth
1
England Championship 26/04/25
W
Preston
1
Plymouth
2
England Championship 21/04/25
W
Coventry
1
Plymouth
3
England Championship 18/04/25
L
Middlesbrough
2
Plymouth
1
England Championship 12/04/25
W
Sheff Utd
1
Plymouth
2
Derby preview: Beat high-flying Coventry
Derby weren't expected to do much at home to promotion-chasing Coventry City but the underdogs claimed a huge three points in their bid to avoid the drop.
Matthew Clarke opened the scoring with his first goal of the campaign in the 23rd minute and a goal from Marcus Myers-Harness early in the second half handed the Rams a two-goal cushion that they refused to let slip.
Defender Curtis Nelson isn't expected to feature again until next season due to a knee injury.
Predicted lineup: Widell Zetterstrom (GK), Forsyth, Clarke, Elder, Nyambe, Phillips, Harness, Adams, Thompson, Armstrong & Yates
England Championship 03/05/25
D
Stoke
0
Derby
0
England Championship 26/04/25
W
Hull
0
Derby
1
England Championship 21/04/25
W
West Brom
1
Derby
3
England Championship 18/04/25
L
Luton
1
Derby
0
England Championship 12/04/25
D
Portsmouth
2
Derby
2
Player to watch: Mustapha Bundu
Plymouth's 28-year-old forward Mustapha Bundu is on course to have his best season in front of goal since leaving Denmark where he has played for most of his career.
Bundu has scored five times in the Championship this season and only needs four more goals to beat his best-ever total which was recorded during the 2019/20 season with AGF in the Danish SuperLiga.
Bundu has eight goal involvements in the Championship
The Sierra Leone international was on target in midweek as Plymouth beat Portsmouth and we're backing the forward to put in another impressive display against Derby County on Saturday.