🔥 Our Hot tip

Elijah Adebayo to score anytime

Adebayo has accumulated the highest expected goals value this season, and scored in the reverse fixture.

Luton welcome Norwich City to Kenilworth on New Year's Day, hoping to avenge their 4-2 defeat in the reverse fixture. Read on for our Luton vs Norwich predictions and more.

Luton vs Norwich prediction: Can Borja Sainz rediscover his finishing touch? – Photo by imago/MI News

Luton vs Norwich prediction: Goals galore?

Key Stats

  • Luton have the second worst defence in the league, with 41 goals conceded. Norwich have not been much better, with 36 against.
  • Borja Sainz is top scorer in the Championship with 15 goals, though he is on a seven game barren streak.
  • Luton have won the last three in a row at home to Norwich.

Correct score prediction: Luton 2-2 Norwich

As mentioned above, neither side has been good at keeping the ball out of the net. Norwich have been better scorers, but the Canaries have struggled on the road, with just two wins away wins all season. As such, we anticipate a score draw here.

Pre-game odds and win probability: 

  • HOME: 29/20 (2.45) – 40.8%
  • DRAW: 12/5 (3.40) – 29.4%
  • AWAY: 7/4 (2.75) – 36.4%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

Luton are the expected winner of this game, albeit by a narrow margin, with a win probability of 40.8%. However, we think a draw is more likely.

You can find all our predictions for today's games on our football betting tips page.

Most recent H2Hs: Luton edge it

Despite their 4-2 loss at Carrow Road earlier this season, Luton still have the edge on their visitors, winning three and losing two of their last five meetings with the Canaries.

England Championship 30/11/24

Norwich

Norwich

4
Luton

Luton

2

England Championship 26/12/22

Luton

Luton

2
Norwich

Norwich

1

England Championship 18/10/22

Norwich

Norwich

0
Luton

Luton

1

England Championship 06/03/21

Norwich

Norwich

3
Luton

Luton

0

England Championship 02/12/20

Luton

Luton

3
Norwich

Norwich

1

Luton preview: Still rediscovering their footing

It's not been an easy return to the Championship for Luton after their Premier League fever dream in 2023/24. The Hatters are 19th coming into this one.

Rob Edwards' side have been better of late, with wins in Derby and Stoke in their last five, but they have still underwhelmed.

Despite missing seven players through injury and suspension, the Kenilworth Road faithful will be hoping to see their side turn over a new leaf at the start of 2025.

Predicted lineupKaminski (GK), Holmes, McGuinness, Bell, Moses, Clark, Krauss, Chong, Morris, Adebayo

England Championship 03/05/25

L

West Brom

West Brom

5

Luton

Luton

3

England Championship 26/04/25

W

Coventry

Coventry

0

Luton

Luton

1

England Championship 21/04/25

W

Bristol City

Bristol City

1

Luton

Luton

3

England Championship 18/04/25

W

Derby

Derby

0

Luton

Luton

1

England Championship 12/04/25

L

Blackburn

Blackburn

1

Luton

Luton

0

Norwich preview: Growing pains

Despite a wildly inconsistent opening act of 2024/25 that sees them in 12th place on New Year's Day, it's not all doom and gloom at Carrow Road.

After pursuing quick fixes with older players and coaches to try and find a shortcut back to the Premier League, Norwich have returned to a more youthful approach, which has shown some green (and yellow) shoots.

After back to back losses to Burnley and Sunderland, the Canaries have steadied the ship with a win over Millwall and a draw with QPR.

Predicted lineup: Gunn (GK), Fisher, Duffy, Cordoba, Doyle, McLean, Marcondes, Nunez, Schwartau, Crnac, Sainz

England Championship 03/05/25

W

Cardiff

Cardiff

2

Norwich

Norwich

4

England Championship 26/04/25

D

Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough

0

Norwich

Norwich

0

England Championship 21/04/25

L

Millwall

Millwall

3

Norwich

Norwich

1

England Championship 18/04/25

L

Portsmouth

Portsmouth

5

Norwich

Norwich

3

England Championship 11/04/25

L

Burnley

Burnley

2

Norwich

Norwich

1

Elijah Adebayo has already scored against Norwich this season – Photo by imago/David Horn

Player to watch: Elijah Adebayo

Perhaps no player has been more representative of Luton's underperformance than big centre-forward Elijah Adebayo, who has scored just five goals from an expected goals of 9.59, the highest in the Championship.

Adebayo netted 10 goals in the Premier League last season, including finishes against Arsenal and Manchester City, so clearly possesses the requisite quality.

Combine that with the number of chances he's getting, it can't be long until he starts finding the back of the net with more regularity again.

With one goal already scored against Norwich this season, we back him to score here.


William Evans is a football and politics fanatic. A first-class graduate of UEA's Broadcast and Digital Journalism MA course, he also achieved a first class degree in politics and media studies during his time at UEA.