Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen prediction, odds and betting tips 19/02/2024

Ajax
18/02/24 - 13:30

Finished

2

-

2

NEC

Ajax - NEC

Netherlands Eredivisie - Johan Cruijff ArenA

Ajax have only lost three times against NEC Nijmegen
Ajax have only lost three times against NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie – Photo by Icon sport

Before last weekend's slip-up against RKC Waalwijk, NEC Nijmegen had not lost a league game since playing Ajax back at the start of December. Ajax have been flying since a stuttering start to the campaign and now look to be serious contenders for a Champions League spot.

Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen predictions: Fight for European football getting very tight

Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen predictions
Our pick

⚽ Total goals prediction

Over 3.5

⚽ Anytime goalscorer prediction

Brian Brobbey

⚽ Team to score first prediction

Ajax

These sides are separated by just two places and six points heading into this clash. Ajax have not won in their last two Eredivisie matches, while NEC Nijmegen's last league defeat was against Sunday's opponents.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Ajax overwhelming favourites in tough league clash

Home: 2/5 (1.4) – 71.4%

Draw: 19/5 (4.8) – 20.8%

Away: 6/1 (7.0) – 14.3%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

Ajax certainly have the edge in H2Hs, having won six of the last seven matches played between the two sides. As well as that, NEC Nijmegen failed to defeat them even when the Dutch giants were experiencing a tough start to the current season.

Last five H2Hs: Ajax almost perfect in this fixture

Netherlands Eredivisie 03/12/23

NEC

NEC

1
Ajax

Ajax

2

Netherlands Eredivisie 05/03/23

Ajax

Ajax

1
NEC

NEC

0

Netherlands Eredivisie 08/01/23

NEC

NEC

1
Ajax

Ajax

1

Netherlands Eredivisie 23/04/22

NEC

NEC

0
Ajax

Ajax

1

Netherlands Eredivisie 14/08/21

Ajax

Ajax

5
NEC

NEC

0

Three of the previous five meetings have seen both sides fail to score more than once. This suggests the first goal will be crucial, especially for NEC Nijmegen.

Going even further back, a HT lead for Ajax would seemingly guarantee victory, with 18 victories from 19 occasions on which they've led at the break in an Eredivisie home clash versus Nijmegen.

Notably, the Amsterdam side have also been breached just once before HT across the last dozen occasions on which they've hosted NEC, with that anomaly coming back in May 2014.

Team news and form guide

Ajax: A must-win game to maintain their Champions League push

After going 12 league games without defeat, Ajax have now not won in their past two matches, losing more ground in the Champions League race and making this a must-win for the Dutch giants.

Predicted lineup: Ramaj (GK), Sosa, Hato, Sutalo, Gooijer, Henderson, Taylor, Hylnsson, Akpom, Brobbey, Berghuis

Netherlands Eredivisie 03/03/24

W

FC Utrecht

FC Utrecht

0

Ajax

Ajax

2

Netherlands Eredivisie 25/02/24

L

AZ

AZ

2

Ajax

Ajax

0

UEFA Conference League 22/02/24

W

no

Bodo/Glimt

1

Ajax

Ajax

2

Netherlands Eredivisie 18/02/24

D

NEC

NEC

2

Ajax

Ajax

2

UEFA Conference League 15/02/24

D

no

Bodo/Glimt

2

Ajax

Ajax

2

NEC Nijmegen: Revenge will be on the cards after previous defeat

NEC Nijmegen were shocked last weekend when RKC Waalwijk handed them a loss, but will be motivated to avenge a defeat by Ajax earlier in the season and keep their European dreams alive.

Predicted lineup: Cillessen (GK), Verdonk, Nuytinck, Sandler, Van Rooij, Proper, Gonzalez, Chery, Borges Sanches, Ogawa, Hansen

Netherlands Eredivisie 01/03/24

W

FC Volendam

FC Volendam

2

NEC

NEC

5

Netherlands Cup 27/02/24

W

Cambuur Leeuwarden

Cambuur Leeuwarden

1

NEC

NEC

2

Netherlands Eredivisie 24/02/24

W

Sparta Rotterdam

Sparta Rotterdam

0

NEC

NEC

2

Netherlands Eredivisie 18/02/24

D

Ajax

Ajax

2

NEC

NEC

2

Netherlands Eredivisie 09/02/24

L

RKC

RKC

2

NEC

NEC

0

Our free expert picks: 3-1 to Ajax with Brobbey to score first

If you don't feel tempted to lump on an outright winner in this tight match, then check out the other free betting tips we have to offer.

As well as our standout expert pick, this game has a lot more in the way of tempting options. You could back the Draw/Ajax market with the home side's quality likely being too much, and with odds of 3/1 (4.0) – for a probability figure of 25% – this is more than tempting.

Something more outlandish would be Brian Brobbey to outscore NEC Nijmegen at 16/5 (4.2 -23.8%) with Ajax having kept a clean sheet in three of the last five head-to-head games.

Hot tip – Brian Brobbey to score anytime

  • Brobbey has eight goals in his last eight league games
  • Brian Brobbey has scored eight goals in the 10 league games Ajax have won this season

Other tips

Over 3.5 goals

  • Six of Ajax's last eight games have seen over 3.5 goals scored
  • Half of NEC Nijmegen's away league games have seen over 3.5 goals scored

Ajax to score first

  • Ajax scored the first two goals in the reverse fixture this season
  • Ajax have two of the top 10 scorers in the league so are more potent in the final third
Ajax's striker, Chuba Akpom
Ajax's Chuba Akpom has six goals from just three starts in the Eredivisie – Photo by Icon Sport

Player to watch – Chuba Akpom

Chuba Akpom has not enjoyed the dream since joining Ajax in the summer, having played second fiddle to Brobbey. However, he's often proven his worth when allowed to, with 10 goals in 21 appearances. Six of those strikes have come in the league, which equates to 74 minutes per goal and 1.21 per 90 minutes.

A goal off the bench this weekend?

Five of Akpom's six goals in the league have come when he's been subbed into the game, so while he won't wish to be an impact substitute, he's certainly good at the role.


Avatar of Aaron Hindhaugh
Aaron Hindhaugh

Aaron is a multi-skilled sports content writer and media professional. He is a specialist in both Men's and Women's football, along with golf.