It is a clash between League Two and the Championship in the FA Cup third round on Friday night as MK Dons welcome Oxford United to the Stadium MK. At the time of writing, the hosts are in fifth place in England's fourth division, seven points off of league leaders Bromley.
Meanwhile, the visitors are flirting with relegation in the Championship, as they are currently second-from-bottom and three points away from safety. Nonetheless, this will feel like an opportunity for the Dons to create an upset.
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MK Dons vs Oxford United prediction: Dons to cause “cupset”?
Key stats
- MK Dons are unbeaten in seven home games in all competitions, winning four of them.
- Oxford United are winless in six away league matches, losing four.
- MK Dons are also unbeaten in the previous three H2Hs in all competitions.
Correct score prediction: MK Dons 2-1 Oxford United
MK Dons will be the underdogs as they play two divisions below Oxford United in the English football pyramid. However, they have been strong on home soil of late, while the visitors have struggled on their travels, so we could see an upset here.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Oxford United favourites with bookmakers
- HOME: 15/8 (2.88) – 34.8%
- DRAW: 5/2 (3.50) – 28.6%
- AWAY: 11/8 (2.38) – 42.1%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
As shown by the implied probabilities, Oxford United are unsurprisingly the favourites with bookmakers to win and progress into the fourth round of the competition. However, an MK Dons victory can still be backed at just under 35%, while a draw after normal time is rated at just under 29%.
Also, feel free to check out our dedicated Today’s betting tips page for more of our expert FA Cup predictions.
Most recent H2Hs: Dons aiming for four unbeaten
As mentioned before, MK Dons are actually unbeaten in the previous three meetings between the two sides across all competitions. The last H2H was in the FA Trophy in 2023, where they beat Oxford United 1-0 away from home.
England EFL Trophy 19/09/23
Oxford Utd
Milton Keynes Dons
England League 1 11/02/23
Milton Keynes Dons
Oxford Utd
England League 1 17/09/22
Oxford Utd
Milton Keynes Dons
England League 1 19/04/22
Oxford Utd
Milton Keynes Dons
England League 1 11/12/21
Milton Keynes Dons
Oxford Utd
MK Dons preview: No fresh concerns
MK Dons have reported no fresh concerns in their squad at the time of writing. We are expecting them to field a strong XI amid hopes of reaching round four.
Predicted lineup: MacGillivray (GK); Jones, Sanders, Offord; Nemane, Crowley, Kelly, Lemonheigh-Evans, Mellish; Hepburn-Murphy & Paterson
Last five results:
- MK Dons 2-2 Chesterfield
- Colchester 1-0 MK Dons
- MK Dons 1-1 Notts County
- MK Dons 1-0 Swindon
- Harrogate 0-4 MK Dons
Oxford United preview: Davies doubtful
Ben Davies is a doubt for this one with a knock. He could join five other squad players on the injury list for Oxford United.
Predicted lineup: Cumming (GK); Long, Helik, Brown, Currie; Placheta, De Keersmaecker, Vaulks, Goodrham; Krastev & Lankshear
Last five results:
- Ipswich 2-1 Oxford United
- Oxford United 0-1 Swansea
- Oxford United 2-1 Southampton
- Charlton 1-0 Oxford United
- Oxford United 1-2 Preston
Player to watch: Callum Paterson
Callum Paterson scored in his last appearance for MK Dons, and also grabbed an assist in their 3-1 win at home to Oldham in the FA Cup second round. The striker has experience of playing higher up in the English pyramid, which could help his teammates ahead of the visit of Championship Oxford United.