Marseille vs Toulouse prediction, odds & betting tips – 04/03/2026
Carles Martinez, head coach of Toulouse - photo by IMAGO / PsnewZ
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Over 2.5 goals

Six of the last seven meetings between the two sides have produced over 2.5 goals.

Marseille host Toulouse at the Stade Velodrome on Wednesday, aiming to book their spot in the Coupe de France semi-finals.

View our Marseille vs Toulouse predictions below.

Marseille vs Toulouse preview: Goals expected

Key stats

  • Marseille are unbeaten in their last 17 meetings with Toulouse.
  • Toulouse have failed to win their last four matches.
  • Each of Marseille’s last six matches has produced fewer than 11 corners.

Correct score prediction: Marseille 2-1 Toulouse

Marseille have been impressive in the Coupe de France this season, progressing confidently and securing a 3–0 victory over Rennes in the previous round. After a challenging run that included two defeats and a draw, they enter this match on the back of a 3-2 Ligue 1 win against Lyon, which should provide a timely boost in confidence under Habib Beye.

Toulouse, meanwhile, reached this stage with a narrow 1-0 win over Amiens in the last round. However, their recent league form is a major concern, with three defeats in their last four Ligue 1 matches.

Both sides have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last four matches. Likewise, each of the previous four meetings between the two teams has seen both sides get on the scoresheet.

Nine of Marseille’s last 10 matches have produced over 2.5 goals, and a home win with both teams scoring appears the most likely outcome.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Both teams to score

  • HOME: 4/7 (1.57) – 63.7%
  • DRAW: 14/5 (3.8) – 26.3%
  • AWAY: 18/5 (4.6) – 21.7%

*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

Marseille have won this competition 10 times in their history, and they will be aiming to reach their first Coupe de France semi-final since 2016, if they secure victory in front of their home fans.

We can also see that Les Olympiens are considered favourites for this game and are priced at 4/7 (1.57), implying a 63.7% probability of victory.

Toulouse have conceded the opening goal in four of their last five games, while Marseille are backed to score first at odds of 1/2 (1.5).

Both sides have found the net in six of the last seven H2H clashes, making BTTS – Yes at 4/5 (1.8) an appealing option.

Don’t forget to check out more of our best betting tips and predictions after you’ve dissected our Marseille vs Toulouse predictions.

Most recent H2Hs: Marseille dominance to continue?

Marseille are unbeaten against Toulouse in their last 17 meetings. Earlier this season, when the two sides met at this venue, the match ended in a 2–2 draw.

France Ligue 1 29/11/25

Marseille

Marseille

2
Toulouse

Toulouse

2

France Ligue 1 06/04/25

Marseille

Marseille

3
Toulouse

Toulouse

2

France Ligue 1 31/08/24

Toulouse

Toulouse

1
Marseille

Marseille

3

France Ligue 1 21/04/24

Toulouse

Toulouse

2
Marseille

Marseille

2

France Ligue 1 17/09/23

Marseille

Marseille

0
Toulouse

Toulouse

0

Marseille preview: Missing several key players

The home side have won eight matches, drawn three, and lost only once at home in the league this season. While their league form has been inconsistent, they have shown impressive quality in the Coupe de France so far.

Marseille captain Leonardo Balerdi could miss the match due to a head injury, while Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg is suspended.

Predicted lineup: Rulli (GK), Weah, Aguerd, Egan-Riley, Medina, Kondogbia, Timber, Greenwood, Nwaneri, Paixao & Gouiri

Last five matches

  • 01/03/26: Marseille 3-2 Lyon (Ligue 1)
  • 20/02/26: Brest 2-0 Marseille (Ligue 1)
  • 14/02/26: Marseille 2-2 Strasbourg (Ligue 1)
  • 08/02/26: PSG 5-0 Marseille (Ligue 1)
  • 03/02/26: Marseille 3-0 Rennes (Coupe de France)

Toulouse preview: Can they pick up an away win?

The visitors have lost their previous three away games across all competitions. However, they have traditionally performed well in this competition and have not lost a Coupe de France quarter-final since 1993.

Abu Francis is likely to miss out with a lower leg issue, while Rasmus Nicolaisen continues to recover from a thigh strain.

Predicted lineup: Restes (GK), Sidibe, McKenzie, Cresswell, Kamanzi, Vossah, Casseres, Methalie, Sauer, Gboho & Emersonn

Last five matches

  • 28/02/26: Rennes 1-0 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
  • 21/02/26: Toulouse 1-1 Paris FC (Ligue 1)
  • 15/02/26: Le Havre 2-1 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
  • 08/02/26: Angers 1-0 Toulouse (Ligue 1)
  • 04/02/26: Toulouse 1-0 Amiens (Coupe de France)

Player to watch: Mason Greenwood

Greenwood has been in great form this season, continuing the renaissance of his career since arriving to France. This season, he has netted 14 goals in 23 games in Ligue 1 and Marseille will rely on his goalscoring instincts once again as they host Toulouse.

Marseille vs Toulouse
Mason Greenwood in action for Marseille – photo by IMAGO / PsnewZ

Saikat is a freelance Sports Journalist with over ten years of experience covering football (and other sports) for various publications including GRV Media, Rocket Sports Network, Breaking Media, and Football Whispers. Saikat also has a keen interest in F1, cricket, and tennis and has taken face to face interviews of footballers such as Emile Heskey and Robbie Fowler.