Mali and Tunisia continue their quest for Africa Cup of Nations glory with a clash at the Stade Mohammed on Saturday.
A place in the quarter-finals is up for grabs, and the winners of this weekend's last-16 tie will face one of Senegal or Sudan.
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Mali vs Tunisia prediction: North Africans to march on
Key stats
- Mali are unbeaten in six matches, although the last four have ended with honours even.
- Six of the last seven games involving Mali have yielded fewer than three goals, in stark contrast to Tunisia, whose previous six games have produced at least three goals on five occasions.
- Unsurprisingly, Tunisia are without a clean sheet in four outings leading up to Saturday's clash.
Correct score prediction: Mali 1-2 Tunisia
Knockout ties often take on an attritional tone, but we are expecting an exciting watch this weekend with both sides going full throttle.
That said, Tunisia boast more experience at this level, and we are tipping them to carry the day.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Game of fine margins on the cards
- HOME: 15/8 (2.88) – 34.8%
- DRAW: 9/5 (2.80) – 35.7%
- AWAY: 29/20 (2.45) – 40.8%
*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Despite failing to win any of their three group-stage matches, Mali finished second in Group A behind Morocco with three points.
A first victory in Saturday's encounter would be more than welcome for the West Africans, but with only a 34.8% win probability, they will need to upset the odds.
Tunisia began their AFCON journey with a bang, securing a 3-1 triumph over Uganda.
Their form, however, has since waned: a 3-2 defeat to Nigeria followed, before a 1-1 draw with Tanzania closed the group stage.
Sami Trabelsi's men will head to Casablanca with the bookmakers' cautious approval and a 40.8% chance of victory.
For more from the upcoming matches, today’s free football betting tips look at some of the best picks.
Most recent H2Hs: Three unbeaten for Tunisia
Saturday's clash will see Mali and Tunisia lock horns for a second straight AFCON tournament after a 1-1 stalemate in the 2024 edition.
Before then, the teams last met in the 2022 World Cup playoffs, where Tunisia secured their place at football's biggest event with a 1-0 aggregate triumph over two legs.
Africa Cup of Nations 20/01/24
Tunisia
Mali
Africa - World Cup Qualifying 29/03/22
Tunisia
Mali
Africa - World Cup Qualifying 25/03/22
Mali
Tunisia
Africa Cup of Nations 12/01/22
Tunisia
Mali
International Match 15/06/21
Tunisia
Mali
Mali preview: Amadou Haidara ineligible to feature
Following his red card against Comoros, Haidara will not play any part for Mali as he serves a one-game ban.
Meanwhile, Sikou Niakate and Hamari Traore are huge doubts due to their respective injuries.
Predicted lineup: Diarra (GK), Doucoure, Diaby, Camara, Gassama, Coulibaly, Dieng, Sangare, Doumbia, Nene & Sinayoko
Mali's last five matches:
- Comoros 0-0 Mali (Africa Cup of Nations)
- Morocco 1-1 Mali (Africa Cup of Nations)
- Mali 1-1 Zambia (Africa Cup of Nations)
- Jordan 0-0 Mali (International Friendly)
- Mali 4-1 Madagascar (World Cup Qualifiers)
Tunisia preview: Can Elias Achouri shake off injury scare?
Achouri was forced off in the early exchanges of the second half against Tanzania last time out with an injury problem, and the winger is in a race against time to be fit for this weekend.
Should Achouri miss out, Tunisia are not short of replacements with Ferjani Sassi at the top of the list.
Predicted lineup: Dahmen (GK), Abdi, Talbi, Bronn, Valery, Mejbri, Skhiri, Sassi, Tounekti, Mastouri & Gharbi
Tunisia's last five matches:
- Tanzania 1-1 Tunisia (Africa Cup of Nations)
- Nigeria 3-2 Tunisia (Africa Cup of Nations)
- Tunisia 3-1 Uganda (Africa Cup of Nations)
- Tunisia 2-1 Botswana (International Friendly)
- Qatar 0-3 Tunisia (Arab Cup)
Player to watch – Lassine Sinayoko
Sinayoko has scored both of Mali's AFCON goals so far, taking his tally to five goals in the last five matches for club and country.
The 26-year-old endured a largely pedestrian display against Comoros but should have no problems retaining his starting berth.
Having netted against Tunisia in the most recent meeting between Saturday's opponents, Sinayoko is definitely one to keep an eye on.