Mainz vs Dortmund prediction, odds & betting tips 27/09/2025
Castello Lukeba and Paul Nebel in action during a recent meeting between Mainz and Leipzig - Photo by IMAGO
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Over 2.5 Goals

Only one of their last five H2H meetings returned fewer than three total goals.

Second-place Borussia Dortmund will travel to the Mewa Arena to face Mainz in the latest round of Bundesliga fixtures. The visiting side have won three and drawn one match since the start of the campaign.

Mainz, on the other hand, have recorded one victory, drawn one, and suffered three losses in their four opening league fixtures. Meanwhile, other than this fixture, we have more Bundesliga predictions available to you at no cost.

Mainz vs Dortmund predictions: A high-scoring game is expected

Key stats

  • Only one of their last five H2H meetings returned fewer than three total goals.
  • Dortmund have scored at least three goals in each of their last two encounters.
  • The hosts have found the back of the net in all of their last five meetings.

Correct score prediction: Mainz 1-3 Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund have had a blistering start to the season, recording three wins and one draw, which has earned them 10 points from a possible 12 so far. Their points haul leaves them adrift of Harry Kane's Bayern Munich, who are on 12 points.

While Mainz have earned a solitary win this season, they remain inconsistent, and they are in for a tough task on Saturday.

Pre-game odds and win probability: The visitors have the upper hand

  • HOME: 2/1 (3.00) – 33.3%
  • DRAW: 11/4 (3.75) – 26.7%
  • AWAY: 19/4 (2.15) – 46.5%

*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

Dortmund endured an underwhelming campaign last term, but that has not deterred them from going all out since the start of the new season. Having recorded three victories and one draw, scoring nine and conceding three in the process, the bookies have installed them as favourites at odds of  19/4 (2.15) – meaning a 46.5% chance of winning.

Having said that, the hosts have fewer chances of a victory on Saturday, with odds of  2/1 (3.00), a 33.3% probability to win.

Don’t forget to check out more of our best betting tips for other competitions.

Most recent H2Hs: The hosts own the bragging rights

Contrary to their respective recent forms, which see Dortmund flying high in the early stage of the season, Mainz have dominated their more illustrious opponents in previous meetings.

Mainz have two wins, while the Yellow Submarines only have one and two draws to show for their efforts in their last five head-to-head meetings.

Germany Bundesliga I 30/03/25

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

3
Mainz

Mainz

1

Germany Bundesliga I 09/11/24

Mainz

Mainz

3
Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

1

Germany Bundesliga I 11/05/24

Mainz

Mainz

3
Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

0

Germany Bundesliga I 19/12/23

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

1
Mainz

Mainz

1

Germany Bundesliga I 27/05/23

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

2
Mainz

Mainz

2

Mainz preview: The hosts are battling injuries

Mainz have a few injuries ahead of this fixture on Saturday, with Benedict Hollerbach (muscle), Dal Maxim (ACL) and Lee Jae-Sung (hamstring) will all not be in the manager's plan.

Meanwhile, Dominik is not eligible for this contest, as he is serving a suspension due to accumulated cautions. 

Predicted lineup: Zentner (GK), Hanchen-Olsen, Litsch, Da Costa, Mwene, Amiri, Sano, Boving, Nordin, Nebel & Weiper.

Last five matches

  • Augsburg 1-4 Mainz
  • Mainz 0-1 RB Leipzig
  • Wolfsburg 1-1 Mainz
  • Mainz 4-1 Rosenberg
  • Mainz 0-1 Koln

Dortmund preview: The visitors will be looking to improve their record against Mainz

Beyond recent meetings between these teams, Dortmund have been poor against the hosts over time. In their trips away to Mainz, they have lost and conceded at least three goals on each occasion.

Their trip could even be made more difficult with injuries to several players within the squad, as Cole Campbell (International duty), Emre Can (Groin). Julien Duranville (shoulder), Niklas Sule (Calf) and Fabio Silva (muscle) are sidelined for Saturday's encounter.

Predicted lineup: Kobel (GK), Ryerson, Anton, Bensebaini, Couto, Sabitzer, Nmecha, Svensson, Beier, Adeyemi & Guirassy.

Last five matches

  • Dortmund 1-0 Wolfsburg
  • Juventus 4-4 Dortmund
  • Heidenheim 0-2 Dortmund
  • Dortmund 3-0 Union Berlin
  • St Pauli 3-3 Dortmund

Player to watch: Serhou Guirassy

After four Bundesliga fixtures, Guinean and Borussia Dortmund Serhou Guirassy is the second top scorer after Harry Kane (8) with four goals. That tally makes it an average of one goal per match, and he is likely to increase his goal return this weekend.

Mainz vs Dortmund prediction
Serhou Guirassy should be brimming with confidence ahead of this fixture. (Photo by Imago)

 

 

 


Ademola is a passionate sports writer and betting expert with a degree in Plant Science and a Masters degree in Plant Ecology.