Second-from-bottom host second-from-top in the Championship on Saturday, with Luton Town welcoming Leeds United to Kenilworth Road. Read on to see how we think this important encounter at both ends of the table will go.
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Luton vs Leeds prediction: Farke's side looking to recover from recent wobble
Key stats
- Leeds have scored 78 goals in the Championship, 17 more than the next best side, Norwich City.
- Luton have scored the fewest amount of goals at home this season in the Championship, averaging just 1.05 goals-per-game at Kenilworth Road.
- Despite netting just four goals in five games, Luton have picked up 10 points in that time.
- Leeds have won just one of their last five matches in the Championship – a 2-0 success over Millwall.
Correct score prediction: Luton 0-2 Leeds
Leeds have been free-scoring throughout the campaign, and if they can eliminate the individual errors, then Premier League football awaits.
Even though Luton have returned to form of late, none of their recent opponents have been on the level of Leeds, and this will be a significantly tougher task for Matt Bloomfield’s men on Saturday.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Away win heavily fancied
- HOME: 19/4 (5.75) – 17.4%
- DRAW: 3/1 (4.00) – 25.0%
- AWAY: 4/7 (1.57) – 63.6%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
As has been the case on numerous occasions this season, Leeds are the odds-on favourites to take all three points here, and with good reason, considering they are 22 places higher in the standings.
Luton were in a higher division than Leeds last season, but now find themselves a whopping 43 points behind the Whites, and in a fight against relegation, and the bookies only give them a narrow chance of pulling off a surprise here.
Also, feel free to check out our expert predictions and football betting tips today.
Most recent H2Hs: Leeds have dominated of late
These two clubs swapped divisions in 2022-23, with Leeds suffering relegation and Luton winning promotion to the Premier League, but they are now at the same level for the first time in five years.
Leeds won the reverse fixture 3-0 thanks to goals from Sam Byram, Joel Piroe and Daniel James in November, and have not lost any of the last seven head-to-heads, with their last defeat coming here in 2006.
England Championship 27/11/24
Leeds
Luton
Spain Super Cup 09/08/24
Leeds
Luton
England Championship 30/06/20
Leeds
Luton
England Championship 23/11/19
Luton
Leeds
England EFL Cup 23/08/16
Luton
Leeds
Luton preview: Hosts battling to avoid back-to-back relegations
Taking 10 points from five games has still not been enough to lift Luton out of the bottom three, and they will not be gifted goals as bizarre as the own goal Hull City scored to settle their close encounter last weekend very often.
Bloomfield’s men are just two points from safety though, in a relegation battle between seven clubs, but Luton have one of the toughest assignments of any team in the division this weekend.
Izzy Jones is close to returning from injury, but Jacob Brown joined the likes of Marvelous Nakamba, Shandon Baptiste and Teden Mengi on the sidelines last weekend.
Predicted lineup: Kaminski (GK), Doughty, Makosso, McGuinness, Bell, Walsh, Clark, Aasgaard, Chong, Morris & Adebayo
England Championship 03/05/25
L
West Brom
5
Luton
3
England Championship 26/04/25
W
Coventry
0
Luton
1
England Championship 21/04/25
W
Bristol City
1
Luton
3
England Championship 18/04/25
W
Derby
0
Luton
1
England Championship 12/04/25
L
Blackburn
1
Luton
0
Leeds preview: Looking to hold off Burnley's challenge
Despite slipping up at home to Swansea last week, recording a second-straight 2-2 draw, Leeds remain in the automatic promotion places, but they will need to rapidly return to winning ways, with Burnley only behind them on goal difference.
Leeds’ last two away games have seen them lose at Portsmouth, and go 2-0 down at Queens’ Park Rangers, before salvaging a point, so a return to form away from Elland Road is a must.
Wilfried Gnonto was able to recover from injury to come off the bench and score against Swansea a week ago, meaning manager Daniel Farke has a full-strength squad to choose from this weekend.
Predicted lineup: Darlow (GK), Bogle, Rodon, Struijk, Firpo, Rothwell, Tanaka, James, Aaronson, Solomon & Piroe
England Championship 03/05/25
W
Plymouth
1
Leeds
2
England Championship 28/04/25
W
Bristol City
0
Leeds
4
England Championship 21/04/25
W
Stoke
0
Leeds
6
England Championship 18/04/25
W
Oxford Utd
0
Leeds
1
England Championship 12/04/25
W
Preston
1
Leeds
2
Player to watch: Karl Darlow
The spotlight was on Illan Meslier again last weekend after another two errors leading to goals saw Leeds only draw at home, meaning Daniel Farke has now confirmed the Frenchman will be dropped this weekend, having cost his side 10 points through direct mistakes this season.
Can Darlow take his chance?
That will hand Welsh international Karl Darlow an opportunity to impress, and if Leeds can get the three points, accompanied by a clean sheet, the number one jersey may well remain his.