Lorient host Metz at Stade Yves Allainmat-Le Moustoir in Ligue 1 Round 17 on Sunday evening.
Both teams ended 2025 with Coupe de France wins over lower-league opponents and now return to league duty, where they have had contrasting fortunes lately.
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Lorient vs Metz prediction: More Ligue 1 misery for Les Grenats
Key stats
- For Metz, the win over Biesheim was their first in five matches, ending a run of four straight league losses.
- They have conceded first in five of their last six games.
- In contrast, Lorient are on a six-game unbeaten run across all competitions, with three wins in their last four.
- Three consecutive clean sheets underscore the hosts’ defensive progress after 12 matches without one, marking a notable turnaround.
Correct score prediction: Lorient 3-1 Metz
No Ligue 1 team has a higher share of goals (17/19) or points (15/18) at home than Lorient, underscoring the importance of their home form.
Given Metz's struggles, we back Lorient to capitalise on home advantage and secure the win on Sunday.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Hosts seeking to live up to expectations
- HOME: 4/5 (1.80) – 55.6%
- DRAW: 13/5 (3.60) – 27.8%
- AWAY: 17/5 (4.40) – 22.7%
*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
After taking nine of the last 15 points on offer, Lorient are in top form and poised to claim another victory this weekend.
Olivier Pantaloni's men have a 55.6% win probability, nearly two-and-a-half times that of Metz (22.7%).
For Metz, even a point Sunday would be a welcome boost in a poor campaign, but a 27.8% chance suggests this is unlikely.
Stephane Le Mignan's men have only one league away win this season, at Nantes in November.
For more from the upcoming matches, today’s free football betting tips look at some of the best picks.
Most recent H2Hs: Little to choose between the teams
Lorient and Metz drew in both of last season's meetings, the most recent of which was just under a year ago.
Before that, the teams won one match apiece in three straight seasons.
France Ligue 2 11/01/25
Lorient
Metz
France Ligue 2 21/09/24
Metz
Lorient
France Ligue 1 04/02/24
Metz
Lorient
France Ligue 1 26/11/23
Lorient
Metz
France Ligue 1 20/04/22
Lorient
Metz
Lorient preview: Les Merlus set for improved second half of the season
After struggling to find their feet in the early stages of the campaign, Lorient have steadied the ship, and all evidence points to a more productive second half as the 2025-26 campaign reaches the halfway point.
Lorient are currently six points clear of the bottom three, but will know that any slump in form could easily see them sucked into a relegation scrap.
Predicted lineup: Mvogo (GK), Meite, Adjei, Silva, Mvuka, Abergel, Cadiou, Pagis, Makego, Pagis & Soumano
Lorient's last five matches:
- Gosier 0-7 Lorient (Coupe de France)
- Strasbourg 0-0 Lorient (Ligue 1)
- Lorient 1-0 Lyon (Ligue 1)
- Lorient 3-1 Nice (Ligue 1)
- Nantes 1-1 Lorient (Ligue 1)
Metz preview: Tough challenge to beat the drop lying in wait
Metz's poor start to the season has them currently at the bottom of the table and on course for an immediate return to Ligue 2.
Still, the away side have enough time to turn things around, and this weekend's trip to Lorient would be a good place to start.
Predicted lineup: Fischer (GK), Ballo-Toure, Sane, Colin, Kouao, Traore, Deminguet, Tsitashvili, Hein, Mbaye & Asoro
Metz's last five matches:
- Biesheim 0-3 Metz (Coupe de France)
- Metz 2-3 PSG (Ligue 1)
- Auxerre 3-1 Metz (Ligue 1)
- Metz 0-1 Rennes (Ligue 1)
- Brest 3-2 Metz (Ligue 1)
Player to watch – Gauthier Hein
In an otherwise torrid season for Metz, Hein has been a rare positive, racking up five goals and three assists in 14 league matches.
The Frenchman has racked up direct goal contributions in each of his side's last three outings across all competitions.
In the absence of Habib Diallo and Tosin Aiyegun, Metz's joint second top scorers so far, Hein will need to supply the goods once again.