There’s a Madrid derby at the Santiago Bernabeu on Sunday. Our Real Madrid vs Leganes prediction and La Liga betting tips consider whether Carlo Ancelotti’s side will claim the spoils here.
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Real Madrid vs Leganes prediction: Mbappe to hit the target in home win-to-nil
Key stats
- Our Real Madrid vs Leganes betting tips take into account that Los Blancos have a 100% record in the league this season at home to teams outside the top three.
- All of their last eight matches in La Liga have served up three or fewer goals.
- Real Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their home league matches.
- The visitors have failed to score in 36% of their road games in La Liga 2024/25.
Correct score prediction: Real Madrid 3-0 Leganes
We’ve not really seen Real Madrid hit top gear in recent weeks, and they may need to be patient at times here against a Leganes side that is likely to park the bus, and leave just one man up front.
However, Carlo Ancelotti’s side are vastly superior in terms of individual quality and that should be telling over the course of 90 minutes.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Los Blancos the red hot favourites
- HOME: 2/13 (1.15) – 86.7%
- DRAW: 7/1 (8.00) – 12.5%
- AWAY: 14/1 (15.00) – 6.7%
*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
The hosts are the favourites according to the Real Madrid vs Leganes odds, with an implied probability of 86.7% that they win this match.
They were 2-1 winners in a potentially tricky game at Villarreal just before the internationals, with Kylian Mbappe scoring twice.
As for Leganes, they wasted a two-goal lead thanks to a brace from Dani Raba, to lose 3-2 at home to Real Betis in a bitter blow to their survival prospects.
For more from the upcoming action around Europe, today’s free football betting tips look at some of the best picks.
Most recent H2Hs: Two out of two for Madrid so far this term
Our Real Madrid vs Leganes prediction suggests Ancelotti’s men can complete a hat-trick of victories over this opposition this season.
Leganes have also been beaten to nil on their last two trips to the Bernabeu, although they’ve not made the trip since 2019.
Spain Copa del Rey 05/02/25
Leganes
Real Madrid
Spain La Liga 24/11/24
Leganes
Real Madrid
Spain La Liga 19/07/20
Leganes
Real Madrid
Spain La Liga 30/10/19
Real Madrid
Leganes
Spain La Liga 15/04/19
Leganes
Real Madrid
Real Madrid preview: Ancelotti to hold some internationals back?
With a number of South Americans only just returning from World Cup qualifiers, Ancelotti could consider resting the likes of Fede Valverde and Rodrygo, although he’s still expected to name a strong side.
Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao and Dani Ceballos are out injured, while Ferland Mendy and Thibaut Courtois are doubts.
Predicted Lineup: Lunin (GK), F. Garcia, Rudiger, Asencio, L. Vazquez, Bellingham, Tchouameni, Modric, Brahim, Vinicius & Mbappe
Spain La Liga 13/04/25 W CD Alaves 0 Real Madrid 1 UEFA Champions League 08/04/25 L Arsenal 3 Real Madrid 0 Spain La Liga 05/04/25 L Valencia 2 Real Madrid 1 Spain Copa del Rey 01/04/25 D Real Sociedad 4 Real Madrid 4 Spain La Liga 29/03/25 W Leganes 2 Real Madrid 3
Leganes preview: Neyou rated doubtful
Midfielder Yvan Neyou is an injury doubt for the away team. They are also missing Borna Barisic and Enric Franquesa to injuries.
Predicted Lineup: Dmitrovic (GK), J. Hernandez, Nastasic, Saenz, Sergio, Rosier, O. Rodriguez, Cisse, Brasanac, Cruz & Raba
Spain La Liga 12/04/25 L Barcelona 1 Leganes 0 Spain La Liga 07/04/25 D Osasuna 1 Leganes 1 Spain La Liga 29/03/25 L Real Madrid 3 Leganes 2 Spain La Liga 16/03/25 L Real Betis 3 Leganes 2 Spain La Liga 08/03/25 L Celta Vigo 2 Leganes 1
Player to watch – Kylian Mbappe
After his brace last time out, Mbappe is closing in on Robert Lewandowski in the Pichichi race. The Frenchman is now on 20 goals in 26 appearances this term in La Liga.
Mbappe scoring midway through the first half
30% of Mbappe’s goals in the league for Real Madrid have come between the 16th and 30th minutes. Both of his strikes at the Ceramica a fortnight ago came in that time interval.