Leeds are hoping to go clear at the top of the Championship this weekend. Our Derby vs Leeds prediction and betting tips consider whether they can leave Pride Park with maximum points.
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Derby vs Leeds prediction: Rams to pick up a point
Key stats
- Our Derby vs Leeds betting tips take into account that the Rams have avoided defeat in 73% of their home league fixtures.
- They average a very respectable 1.82 points per home game.
- 82% of Leeds’ away matches in the Championship this season have produced under 2.5 goals.
Correct score prediction: Derby 1-1 Leeds
Leeds take good form into this one and they are making a really strong promotion push, but it’s a trickier match than some of their recent fixtures.
The Rams have won their last two at home, defeating promotion hopefuls West Brom on Boxing Day, and they look capable of getting a point.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Visitors the clear favourites
- HOME: 9/2 (5.50) – 18.2%
- DRAW: 3/1 (4.00) – 25.0%
- AWAY: 3/5 (1.60) – 62.5%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
The visitors are the favourites according to the Derby vs Leeds odds with an implied probability of 62.5% that they win this match.
They head into this one after a 2-0 road win at Stoke, with Joel Piroe bagging both goals.
As for Derby, they were 2-1 winners on Boxing Day, with Jerry Yates on target against the Baggies.
For more from the upcoming matches, today’s free football betting tips look at some of the best picks.
Most recent H2Hs: Second meeting this month
Our Derby vs Leeds prediction suggests it’ll be closer than the clash in Yorkshire earlier this month which ended in a 2-0 Leeds win.
Four of the last six meetings overall have ended with two or fewer goals.
England Championship 07/12/24
Leeds
Derby
England Championship 19/07/20
Derby
Leeds
England Championship 21/09/19
Leeds
Derby
England Championship 15/05/19
Leeds
Derby
England Championship 11/05/19
Derby
Leeds
Derby preview: Trio out with hamstring issues
The home team are missing David Ozoh, Eiran Cashin, Liam Thompson and Ryan Nyambe to injuries, three of which are hamstring problems.
Predicted Lineup: Zetterstrom (GK), Wilson, Phillips, Nelson, Bradley, Elder, Osborn, Adams, Goudmijn, Jackson & Yates
England Championship 03/05/25
D Stoke 0 Derby 0 England Championship 26/04/25
W Hull 0 Derby 1 England Championship 21/04/25
W West Brom 1 Derby 3 England Championship 18/04/25
L Luton 1 Derby 0 England Championship 12/04/25
D Portsmouth 2 Derby 2
Leeds preview: Visitors missing four
The away team will have to cope without Ilia Gruev, Joe Gelhardt, Junior Firpo and Maximilian Wober who are all injured.
Predicted Lineup: Meslier (GK), Bogle, Rodon, Ampadu, Byram, Tanaka, Rothwell, James, Aaronson, Solomon & Piroe
England Championship 03/05/25
W Plymouth 1 Leeds 2 England Championship 28/04/25
W Bristol City 0 Leeds 4 England Championship 21/04/25
W Stoke 0 Leeds 6 England Championship 18/04/25
W Oxford Utd 0 Leeds 1 England Championship 12/04/25
W Preston 1 Leeds 2
Player to watch – Joel Piroe
After his latest brace, Piroe is now on nine Championship goals in 23 appearances this term. That’s more than any other player who could feature in this game.
Piroe scoring late
Four of the Dutchman’s nine league strikes this term have come after the 75th minute. His latest strike came in the 95th minute against QPR.