In command of this Europa League third qualifying round clash, KuPS welcome Rigas Futbola Skola to VARE Areena on Thursday with their eyes firmly on a place in the playoff phase.
The Finnish champions carry a slender one-goal cushion from their hard-earned win in Riga last week and will be determined to protect it in front of their home faithful.
Don’t forget to check out more of our best betting tips and predictions after you have dissected our KuPS vs RFS predictions below.
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KuPS vs RFS predictions: KuPS to see tie through?
Key stats:
- KuPS have triumphed in each of their last five home matches in all competitions, keeping three clean sheets along the way.
- The Kuopio outfit have opened the scoring in four of their previous five competitive fixtures at VARE Areena.
- RFS lost their most recent away trip in Europe by a 1-0 margin.
Correct score prediction: KuPS 1-0 RFS
With the upper hand after their first-leg success, the Canaries are well-placed to finish the job, especially with the energy of the Kuopio crowd behind them, and having shut out opponents in both of their last two continental games on home soil, another narrow win looks very possible.
Pre-match odds and win probability: Hosts hold the cards
- HOME: 11/10 (2.10) – 47.6%
- DRAW: 13/5 (3.60) – 27.8%
- AWAY: 11/5 (3.20) – 31.3%
*Odds courtesy of Ladbrokes; subject to change.
KuPS, with implied odds of 11/10 (2.10) and a 47.6% win probability, are justifiably favoured given their formidable home record and their first-leg victory in Latvia.
However, the market still expects a competitive affair, as underlined by RFS’ price of 11/5 (3.20) and 31.3% win probability.
In the goals market, our recommended punt of under 2.5 goals is trading at 1/1 (2.00) with a 50% likelihood, which is a tempting option considering KuPS’ defensive steel at home.
As for the correct score prediction, a 1–0 KuPS victory is priced at 15/2 (8.50), offering value in light of their strong record at Vare Areena and the stats mentioned above.
Head-to-head history: KuPS eye back-to-back wins
The only previous meeting between these two came in last week’s 2-1 victory for KuPS in Riga, meaning the Finnish side now have the chance to claim a win in both legs.
UEFA Europa League Qualifying 06/08/25
RFS
KuPS Kuopio
KuPS preview: Wiss set to make changes again
Fresh from their first-leg success, KuPS eased past KTP 2-0 in the Finnish top flight at the weekend to make it three consecutive victories in all competitions.
Boss Jarkko Wiss rotated heavily, with more than half of the starting line-up differing from the Riga clash, but striker Mohamed Toure, who bagged the decisive goal in Latvia, is expected to return to the XI after scoring from the bench at the weekend.
Predicted lineup: Kreidl (GK), Savolainen, Cisse, Miettinen, Armah, Oksanen, Arifi, Luyeye-Lutumba, Ruoppi, Pennanen & Toure
Finland Veikkausliiga 10/05/25
W
KTP
0
KuPS Kuopio
3
Finland Veikkausliiga 02/05/25
W
SJK
0
KuPS Kuopio
1
Finland Veikkausliiga 27/04/25
W
IF Gnistan
1
KuPS Kuopio
2
Finland Veikkausliiga 23/04/25
W
IFK Mariehamn
1
KuPS Kuopio
4
Finland Veikkausliiga 19/04/25
W
FF Jaro
0
KuPS Kuopio
1
RFS preview: Ikaunieks remains suspended
RFS bounced back from their midweek European loss by dismantling Super Nova 4-1 in the Latvian top flight, with Janis Ikaunieks finding the net. However, the 30-year-old midfielder will not be available to feature on Thursday as his suspension in continental competition continues.
Predicted lineup: Maric (GK), Maraes, Lipucek, Stuglis, Savalnieks, Rakic, Panic, Zelenkovs, Wouter, D Ikaunieks & Diedhiou
Europe Friendlies 31/01/17
W
SK Babite
1
RFS
3
Player to watch: Mohamed Toure
It is rare to see a match-winner dropped immediately after delivering the goods, but that was the case for Mohamed Toure, who started on the bench at the weekend despite scoring the clincher in Riga. The only logical explanation is that Wiss was saving his in-form Guinean forward for this decisive European clash.
Mohamed Toure (Photo – Imago)
Toure further showed his sharpness by striking again after coming on against KPS, taking his tally to six goals in his last six outings, and he will be eager to keep that hot streak alive.