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Italy will continue their quest to remain in the UEFA Nations League A on Monday, when they welcome Turkey to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
The Italians are third with four points in their four-team group, whereas Turkey are last in fourth with no points, and a loss could guarantee relegation.
Read our prediction, preview and betting tips for the game below, and make sure to check out our today's betting tips page for more of our expert predictions.
Italy vs Turkey key stats
- Italy have scored at least two goals in four of their last six home games.
- Turkey have scored one goal in their three Nations League games so far.
- Moise Kean has averaged the most shots per 90 in the Nations League for Italy (3.5).
Italy vs Turkey preview: A relegation decider?
Italy vs Turkey — Tale of the Tape
| Italy | vs | Turkey |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd | Position (Nations League) | 4th |
| 4 | Points | 0 |
| 5 | Goals For | 1 |
| 4 | Goals Against | 8 |
| 0 | Clean Sheets | 0 |
| 3rd | Home / Away Rank | 4th |
Italy earned a positive point on Friday, drawing 1-1 with France, though they struggled to create opportunities in the second half.
The hosts' inconsistencies should not necessarily be a surprise given manager Roberto Mancini named a youthful squad for the Nations League, a sensible decision after years of failure from senior stars.
Italy have failed to qualify for any of the last three World Cups, and they exited Euro 2024 after losing against Switzerland in the round of 16.
When Mancini's side faced Turkey in the reverse fixture, they emerged as 4-1 winners on September 28 and were leading 3-0 by the 27th minute.
Centre-back Alessandro Bastoni scored against France, and he is set to play alongside Giorgio Scalvini in the heart of defence on Monday.
Turkey arrive in Italy having suffered a 3-0 loss against Belgium on Friday, a game in which they missed several chances in front goal.
The worrying prospect for Turkey is that if they were to lose on Monday and if Belgium avoided defeat against France on the same day, they would be relegated to Nations League B.
Boss Vincenzo Montella is under significant pressure following his side's dismal showing at World Cup 2026, with his team finishing last in their group behind Paraguay, Australia and the United States of America.
Monday's match will be made significantly more challenging given attackers Arda Guler and Baris Alper Yilmaz are suspended, meaning the nation's hopes in the forward line may rest on Deniz Gul.
Italy vs Turkey preview form guide & betting tips
| Italy | vs | Turkey |
|---|---|---|
| LWD | Nations League Form | LLL |
| 4 | Points | 0 |
| N/A | Form Table | N/A |
| 5 | Goals For | 1 |
| 4 | Goals Against | 8 |
|
W
W
L
W
D
|
Form (All Comps) |
L
W
L
L
L
|
Whispers predicts: Italy 2-0 Turkey
It should come as no surprise that Italy are favoured by the bookmakers, who have priced a home win at 9/20 (1.45).
Italy have netted at least two goals in four of their last six home matches, and that makes a prediction of Over 1.5 Goals for Italy at 4/9 (1.4) sensible.
Turkey have scored just one goal in their three Nations League games in 2026-27, and they are missing two key attackers, so it makes sense to bet Under 0.5 Goals for Turkey at 29/20 (2.45).
Italy forward Moise Kean has averaged the most shots per 90 of any member of the squad in the Nations League so far, and it could be worthwhile to predict Moise Kean to Score First at 3/1 (4).
> Over 1.5 Goals for Italy at 4/9 (1.4) | Likelihood: Probable
> Under 0.5 Goals for Turkey at 29/20 (2.45) | Likelihood: Possible
> Moise Kean to Score First at 3/1 (4) | Likelihood: Outsider