Germany have a narrow 2-1 advantage to protect ahead of their Nations League playoff second-leg tussle with Italy at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund on Sunday, 23 March. Read our Nations League predictions for the skirmish below.
Contents
- 1 Germany vs Italy prediction: Goals are likely at both ends
- 2 Pre-game odds and win probability: Markets favour Germany
- 3 Most recent H2Hs: Germany’s record is impressive
- 4 Germany preview: Nagelsmann could make changes
- 5 Italy preview: Several players pushing to start
- 6 Player to watch – Joshua Kimmich
Germany vs Italy prediction: Goals are likely at both ends
Key Stats
- Both teams managed to score in Thursday’s first leg (Italy 1-2 Germany) and that was the sixth time in seven Nations League fixtures involving the Italians where BTTS landed.
- Germany have won five and drawn two of their last seven matches in the Nations League.
- Tim Kleindienst’s goal on Thursday was his third goal in as many appearances in the Nations League.
- Fourteen corners were won by both teams combined when Germany beat Italy in Thursday’s first leg.
Correct score prediction: Germany 2-1 Italy
Germany overcame a stiff Italian challenge to win Thursday’s first leg 2-1 and with BTTS a common outcome in Nations League matches involving Italy, a similar result could be worth backing in Sunday’s return fixture.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Markets favour Germany
- HOME: 8/11 (1.73) – 57.9%
- DRAW: 13/8 (3.80) – 26.3%
- AWAY: 7/2 (4.50) – 22.2%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Germany enjoyed nearly 60% possession in their first-leg win over Italy in Milan on Thursday, so it isn’t surprising to see them priced as 8/11 favourites to triumph on Sunday.
Italy have just a 22.2% chance of turning this playoff tie on its head on Sunday. The visitors have lost each of their last two matches in the Nations League, however. Make sure to check out our football tips page for more Nations League analysis.
Most recent H2Hs: Germany’s record is impressive
Germany are unbeaten in seven previous meetings with Italy and haven’t lost to the Azzurri in any competition since a European Championships semi-final defeat in 2012.
UEFA Nations League 20/03/25
Italy
Germany
UEFA Nations League 14/06/22
Germany
Italy
UEFA Nations League 04/06/22
Italy
Germany
International Match 15/11/16
Italy
Germany
Euro 2016 02/07/16
Germany
Italy
Germany preview: Nagelsmann could make changes
Florian Wirtz, Marc-Andre ter Stegen and Kai Havertz are all injured and absent for Germany. Die Mannschaft were set up in a 4-2-3-1 formation by Head Coach Julian Nagelsmann on Thursday, though the German head coach is a notorious tactical tinkerer and could rejig things on Sunday.
Predicted lineup: Baumann (GK), Kimmich, Tah, Rudiger, Raum, Andrich, Goretzka, Amiri, Sane, Musiala, Kleindienst
UEFA Nations League 23/03/25
D
Italy
3
Germany
3
UEFA Nations League 20/03/25
W
Italy
1
Germany
2
UEFA Nations League A 19/11/24
D
Hungary
1
Germany
1
UEFA Nations League A 16/11/24
W
Bosnia-Herzegovina
0
Germany
7
UEFA Nations League A 14/10/24
W
Netherlands
0
Germany
1
Italy preview: Several players pushing to start
Federico Dimarco is unavailable for Italy, though the Azzurri have few injury issues to contend with elsewhere. Raoul Bellanova, Samuele Ricci, Daniel Maldini, Lorenzo Lucca and Davide Frattesi will all be pushing to start having come off the bench in Thursday's first leg.
Predicted lineup: Donnarumma (GK), Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Calafiori, Politano, Barella, Rovella, Tonali, Udogie, Kean, Raspadori
UEFA Nations League 23/03/25
D
Germany
3
Italy
3
UEFA Nations League 20/03/25
L
Germany
2
Italy
1
UEFA Nations League A 17/11/24
L
France
3
Italy
1
UEFA Nations League A 14/11/24
W
Belgium
0
Italy
1
UEFA Nations League A 14/10/24
W
Israel
1
Italy
4
Player to watch – Joshua Kimmich
The versatile Joshua Kimmich was deployed as a right back for Germany in Thursday’s first leg and the Bayern Munich regular showcased his class from a deeper position by registering two assists in his team’s 2-1 win over Italy.
Creative Kimmich can shine again.
Kimmich played a remarkable five key passes in Germany’s win in Milan on Thursday, in fact, no other player involved in the first leg created more chances. The 30-year-old skipper will be eager to put his line-breaking passing ability to good use again in Dortmund on Sunday.