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France visit Italy at San Siro on Thursday 12 November with a three-point lead in UEFA Nations League Group A1 and a quarter-final place within reach.
The Azzurri trail the leaders by three points and need a positive result before a potentially decisive final group match away to Belgium.
Our Italy vs France prediction is a narrow 1-2 away win, with the three-way handicap draw offering a higher-priced alternative to a straight France victory.
Read our prediction, preview and betting tips for the game below, and make sure to check out our today's betting tips page for more of our expert predictions.
Italy vs France key stats
- France top League A Group 1 with 10 points from four matches, while Italy have seven.
- France have conceded just two goals in four Nations League matches, compared with Italy's five.
- Seven of Italy's eight Nations League goals came in their two games against Turkiye.
- France won both away group games 1-0, against Turkiye and Belgium.
- The sides drew 1-1 in Saint-Denis on 2 October, with Michael Olise and Alessandro Bastoni scoring.
Italy vs France preview: Zidane can edge a crucial encounter
Italy vs France – Tale of the Tape
| Italy | vs | France |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Position | 1st |
| 7 | Points | 10 |
| 8 | Goals For | 7 |
| 5 | Goals Against | 2 |
| 0 | Clean Sheets | 2 |
| W1 D0 L1 (H) | Home / Away Record | W2 D0 L0 (A) |
Roberto Mancini has steadied Italy after their opening 2-0 loss to Belgium, but second place remains vulnerable with the Belgians only one point behind.
Italy have beaten Turkiye 4-1 away and 3-1 at home, yet those two fixtures account for seven of their eight group-stage goals.
The Azzurri salvaged a 1-1 draw in France through Alessandro Bastoni, despite spending long spells without the ball against an aggressive French attack.
Italy have conceded in every Nations League match, while injured defender Gianluca Mancini is unavailable and Federico Gatti has joined the latest squad.
Zinedine Zidane's France are unbeaten in the group, with three wins and a draw, and have allowed only two goals across four matches.
The visitors were particularly disciplined on the road, winning 1-0 in both Turkiye and Belgium before returning home for their October fixtures.
Kylian Mbappe has returned to the France squad following a knee problem, although his exact role and expected minutes will become clearer nearer kick-off.
Michael Olise has provided an attacking spark, while the return of Aurelien Tchouameni and Ibrahima Konate offers Zidane further experienced options.
France dominated possession in the reverse fixture and managed eight shots on target to Italy's two, but still had to settle for a draw.
Italy will expect San Siro to lift them, although France won 3-1 at the same stadium in the previous Nations League campaign.
Italy vs France form guide & betting tips
| Italy | vs | France |
|---|---|---|
WLWDW | Last 5 (All Comps) | LWWDW |
| 9 | Goals For | 11 |
| 5 | Goals Against | 8 |
LWDW | UEFA Nations League | WWDW |
Whispers predicts: Italy 1-2 France
3-way Handicap: Draw (France -1) at 27/10 (3.70) is our Hot Tip, requiring France to win by exactly one goal, as in the projected 1-2.
Double Chance: France/Draw at 6/25 (1.24) offers the more cautious approach, supported by the visitors' unbeaten Nations League record and stronger defensive numbers.
Kylian Mbappe anytime scorer at 17/20 (1.85) is our player pick after his return to the squad and World Cup scoring form, subject to team selection.
> 3-way Handicap: Draw (France -1) at 27/10 (3.70) | Likelihood: Possible
> Double Chance: France/Draw at 6/25 (1.24) | Likelihood: Probable
> Kylian Mbappe anytime scorer at 17/20 (1.85) | Likelihood: Possible