Asia’s representative in the intercontinental playoffs will be determined on Tuesday as Iraq welcome the United Arab Emirates to Basra for the second leg of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers fifth round.
The first leg concluded all square in Abu Dhabi, leaving both sides with everything to play for in this decisive encounter.
Read our Iraq vs UAE prediction and preview to find out more, and remember to check our other World Cup qualifiers tips
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Iraq vs UAE prediction: Tight contest expected
Key stats:
- Iraq secured 1-0 victories the last two occasions they hosted UAE in World Cup qualifiers.
- The home side have kept clean sheets in four of their last six fixtures, claiming the same number of wins across this sequence.
- UAE have lost three of their last five World Cup qualifiers on the road (W1, D1).
- Iraq have opened the scoring in four of their last six matches, including in the first leg against the Emirati.
Correct score prediction: Iraq 1-0 UAE
Iraq were impressive in the first leg in Abu Dhabi and are expected to deliver an improved performance in Basra, buoyed by home support.
The Lions of Mesopotamia have better momentum, fuelled by defensive stability, and this could prove decisive in a match of this nature. A solitary goal may be enough to settle the tie, just as it was in the previous two World Cup qualifiers of this fixture hosted by Iraq.
Pre-match analysis: Hosts have the edge
- HOST: 23/20 (2.15) – 46.5%
- DRAW: 15/8 (2.88) – 34.8%
- AWAY: 23/10 (3.30) – 30.3%
*Odds courtesy of Ladbrokes; subject to change*
Although the margins are not substantial, the odds indicate Iraq as favourites to take victory in Basra, with a 46.5% probability compared to UAE’s 30.3%. The 34.8% chance of a draw highlights the competitive nature of this fixture.
Our hot tip of a home win or draw combined with under 2.5 goals offers value at 1.85 odds, considering the historically low-scoring outcomes in this fixture.
Most recent H2H: First leg ended in stalemate
The sides last met in Abu Dhabi for the first leg of this fifth-round World Cup qualifier, where both Iraq and UAE shared the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
Asia - World Cup Qualifying 13/11/25
United Arab Emirates
Iraq
Asia - World Cup Qualifying 24/03/22
Iraq
United Arab Emirates
Asia - World Cup Qualifying 12/10/21
United Arab Emirates
Iraq
Gulf Cup 29/11/19
United Arab Emirates
Iraq
Gulf Cup 02/01/18
Iraq
United Arab Emirates
Iraq preview: Key absentee in midfield
Iraq finished the first leg without injury concerns; however, midfielder Aimar Sher is set to miss the return leg on Tuesday after picking up his second booking of the qualifiers.
Meanwhile, forward Ayman Hussein is pressing for a starting role following a second-half cameo in the opening leg.
Predicted XI: J Hasan (GK), Doski, Tahseen, Hashem, H Ali, Jabbah, Al-Amari, Jasim, Iqbal, M Ali & A Hussein
Iraq’s last five results:
- 13/11/25: UAE 1-1 Iraq (D)
- 14/10/25: Saudi Arabia 0-0 Iraq (D)
- 11/10/25: Iraq 1-0 Indonesia (W)
- 07/09/25: Thailand 0-1 Iraq (W)
- 04/09/25: Iraq 2-1 Hong Kong (W)
UAE preview: No fresh injuries
UAE also left the first leg unscathed, providing head coach Cosmin Olaroiu with a fully fit squad to choose from.
Luan Pereira is expected to retain his position on the right flank, while Caio Lucas may earn a starting berth after impressing off the bench in Abu Dhabi.
Predicted XI: Eisa (GK), Meloni, Pimenta, Zouhir, R Canedo, L Pereira, Nader, Ramadan, S Alamiri; N Gimenez & Lucas
UAE’s last five results:
- 13/11/25: UAE 1-1 Iraq (D)
- 14/10/25: Qatar 2-1 UAE (L)
- 11/10/25: UAE 2-1 Oman (W)
- 08/09/25: UAE 1-0 Bahrain (W)
- 04/09/25: UAE 3-1 Syria (W)
Player to watch: Ayman Hussein
Ayman Hussein is Iraq’s leading scorer in the ongoing World Cup qualifiers, netting eight goals. Having returned to full fitness, as evidenced by his cameo in the first leg, he is expected to start on Tuesday and much of the home side’s attacking responsibility will fall on his shoulders.