Georgia vs Portugal prediction, odds & betting tips – 26/06/2024

Georgia have certainly made an impression at Euro 2024 but will need a performance of a lifetime, and results elsewhere to go in their favour, if the minnows are to progress into the knockout stage.

Following their point against the Czech Republic, Georgia sit bottom of Group F and have to beat the already qualified Portugal on Wednesday night if they are to have any chance of avoiding elimination.

Roberto Martinez may well make wholesale changes to his Portugal side in order to give the rest of his squad some game time and to rest some of their key players which could make for a closer game than most would have expected.

Georgia vs Portugal prediction: Goals expected in Gelsenkirchen

Key Stats

  • Both teams have scored in each of Georgia's opening two group games.
  • Three of Portugal's last five outings have ended with both teams scoring.
  • Over 2.5 goals have been produced in each of Portugal's last five fixtures.
  • Two of Georgia's last three matches have witnessed over 2.5 goals.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Odds stacked against Georgia

  • HOME: 15/2 (8.50) – 11.8%
  • DRAW: 9/2 (5.50) – 18.2%
  • AWAY: 2/5 (21.40) – 71.4%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

Portugal are the expected winner of this game with a probability of 71.4%, but we are expecting Roberto Martínez to make a lot of changes to his starting lineup which could make for a closer-than-expected 90 minutes.

You can find all our predictions for today's games on our football betting tips page.

Last five H2Hs: One previous meeting

These two sides met for the first and only time to date back in 2008 where Portugal claimed a 2-0 victory and both Pepe and Cristiano Ronaldo started the game.

Georgia preview: Need to show more than just heart

Georgia tried hard against Turkey but were eventually well-beaten and failed to hold onto their lead against the Czech Republic despite their best efforts but will need to show more quality in the final third against Portugal.

The odds are stacked against Georgia, even if Portugal change their entire starting lineup, as the depth of quality Roberto Martinez is working with means that they can afford to rest their major players and still get a result against Willy Sagnol's side.

Predicted lineup: Mamardashvili (GK), Kashia, Kverkvelia, Kakabadze, Dvali, Kochorashvili, Tsitaishvili, Mekvabishvili, Davitashvili, Kvaratskhelia & Mikautadze 

Euro 2024 30/06/24

L

Spain

Spain

4

Georgia

Georgia

1

Euro 2024 26/06/24

W

Portugal

Portugal

0

Georgia

Georgia

2

Euro 2024 22/06/24

D

Czech Republic

Czech Republic

1

Georgia

Georgia

1

Euro 2024 18/06/24

L

Turkey

Turkey

3

Georgia

Georgia

1

International Match 09/06/24

W

Montenegro

Montenegro

1

Georgia

Georgia

3

Portugal preview: Expected to rotate their starting lineup

Portugal cruised to a 3-0 victory against Turkey to book their place in the knockout round, so Roberto Martinez has the option to rest his key players against Georgia.

Wednesday's match is a game that Portugal would be expected to win even with a fully rotated starting lineup but we've backed Georgia to get a draw out of this one as they have to go all out for the victory which should lead to an open and end-to-end 90 minutes.

Predicted lineup: Sá (GK), A. Silva, Semedo, Inácio, Dalot, Nunes, R. Neves, Félix, J. Neves, Ramos & Jota

Euro 2024 05/07/24

L

France

France

0 (5)

Portugal

Portugal

0 (3)

Euro 2024 01/07/24

W

Slovenia

Slovenia

0 (0)

Portugal

Portugal

0 (3)

Euro 2024 26/06/24

L

Georgia

Georgia

2

Portugal

Portugal

0

Euro 2024 22/06/24

W

Turkey

Turkey

0

Portugal

Portugal

3

Euro 2024 18/06/24

W

Czech Republic

Czech Republic

1

Portugal

Portugal

2

Player to watch – Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

Georgian hopes for a successful Euro 2024 campaign were always going to rely on the performances of Napoli's Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia player to watch
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia of Georgia in action against Turkey – Photo by Icon Sport

Kvaratskhelia has scored 15 times in just 32 caps for his country and the 23-year-old is the best player to don a Georgain shirt since the country's all-time top scorer Shota Arveladze, whose record Kvaratskhelia will surely break over the next couple of years.

Georgia's star player is yet to make a big impression at Euro 2024

We're expecting a big performance from Georgia against a heavily rotated Portugal side that has no motivation for the points and if anyone is going to guide the underdogs to a surprise result then our money would be on Kvaratskhelia.

Potential next opponents

Things are pretty clear for both teams ahead of the last round—Portugal have already secured the first place, while Georgia have to win this match to get to the next stage.

Portugal's next opponent will be one of the best-third best teams and we already know that it will be either Hungary or Slovenia. Against both teams Portugal would have the advantage when it comes to quality. When it comes to the H2H record, against Hungary Portugal have never lost and they have won 10 of 14 previous duels. Meanwhile, Portugal and Slovenia have only met once, in a friendly played earlier this year, and Slovenia have won that match.

Georgia, on the other hand, could finish second or third, but they do have to beat Portugal for this to happen. If they finish second, they would go up against Austria, with whom they've met twice and notched a draw and a loss. If they finish third, they could either go against Spain or England, depending on other results in the last round.

The latest Tweets from each camp

Georgia

Portugal


A lifelong Evertonian, James started writing for an Everton fan site in the mid-2000s and then developed his own blog covering football transfers from across Europe's big leagues before becoming a regular match preview and betting tips writer for Biggest Free Bets. James moved to Free Super Tips next, and then Racing Post, where he worked as a full-time betting tips writer for a few years. Following that, James joined Football Whispers in December 2020 and has been a permanent fixture ever-since, currently covering the Premier League amongst other things