France vs Belgium prediction, odds & betting tips – 01/07/2024

🔥 Our Hot tip

France to win

France are unbeaten in competitive action since their 2022 World Cup Final loss against Argentina

In what is undoubtedly the pick of the Round of 16 ties, France and Belgium clash in a star-studded showdown at the Düsseldorf Arena on Monday, 1 July. Which heavyweight’s Euro 2024 dreams will be crushed in North Rhine-Westphalia? Find out below in our free Euro 2024 betting tips for the fixture.

France vs Belgium prediction: Les Bleus to prevail?

Key Stats

  • France haven’t lost a competitive fixture since they were beaten in the 2022 World Cup Final by Argentina.
  • Belgium managed to claim just four points from the nine on offer in Group E.
  • France have yet to score from open play at Euro 2024, while Belgium failed to score in two of their first three assignments at the tournament.
  • France notched exactly one goal in two of their three group matches.

Correct score prediction: France 1-0 Belgium

For all the firepower at their disposal, both France and Belgium have failed to ignite as an attacking force at Euro 2024 so far, netting a meagre four goals between them in six games combined. The teams have conceded just one goal apiece however, so expect margins to be razor-thin in Dusseldorf.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Markets moving in France’s favour

  • HOME: 10/11 (1.91) – 52.4%
  • DRAW: 11/5 (3.20) – 31.3%
  • AWAY: 7/2 (4.50) – 22.2%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

France stuttered through Group D, securing just one win to finish in second spot behind Austria, though the only goal they conceded in three games was from the penalty spot against Poland.

Les Bleus remain 10/11 favourites to make the quarter-finals at Belgium’s expense however, having beaten Monday’s opponents in each of the nations’ last two competitive encounters (Nations League (2021 & World Cup 2018).

Like France, Belgium have toiled in the goal-scoring department at Euro 2024, though only two teams have posted a better xGA (expected goals against) figure than Domenico Tedesco’s side (2.59).

However, the Belgians trudged through a group they were tipped to stroll, notching just one win from games against Slovakia, Romania and Ukraine. With that form a factor, they aren’t currying much favour in the markets and they’ve been given just a 22.2% chance of beating France. Visit our football tips page for more top Euro 2024 predictions and expert analysis.

Last five H2Hs: Belgium aiming to end French hoo-doo

France came from two goals down to beat Belgium in the semi-finals of the Nations League when the sides last met in 2021 and Les Bleus also dumped their rivals out of the 2018 World Cup at the same stage.

UEFA Nations League 07/10/21

Belgium

Belgium

2
France

France

3

World Cup 2018 10/07/18

France

France

1
Belgium

Belgium

0

International Match 07/06/15

France

France

3
Belgium

Belgium

4

France preview: Griezmann to return?

Kylian Mbappe returned to the French XI with a protective mask on against Poland and the Real Madrid-bound attacker should start again here. Antoine Griezmann should also be recalled having been named as a sub in the same game.

Predicted lineup: Maignan (GK), Kounde, Upamecano, Saliba, Hernandez, Kante, Tchouameni, Rabiot, Dembele, Griezmann, Mbappe

Euro 2024 09/07/24

L

Spain

Spain

2

France

France

1

Euro 2024 05/07/24

W

Portugal

Portugal

0 (3)

France

France

0 (5)

Euro 2024 01/07/24

W

Belgium

Belgium

0

France

France

1

Euro 2024 25/06/24

D

Poland

Poland

1

France

France

1

Euro 2024 21/06/24

D

Netherlands

Netherlands

0

France

France

0

Belgium preview: Lukebakio back from suspension

Dodi Lukebakio is free to feature again having served a one-game ban for an accumulation of yellow cards and the winger could displace Leandro Trossard on the flank. Orel Mangala could come back into midfield ahead of Youri Tielemans if Domenico Tedesco chooses to solidify his team's centre.

Predicted lineup: Casteels (GK), Castagne, Faes, Vertonghen, Theate, Tielemans, Onana, Lukebakio, De Bruyne, Doku, Lukaku

Euro 2024 01/07/24

L

France

France

1

Belgium

Belgium

0

Euro 2024 26/06/24

D

Ukraine

Ukraine

0

Belgium

Belgium

0

Euro 2024 22/06/24

W

Romania

Romania

0

Belgium

Belgium

2

Euro 2024 17/06/24

L

Slovakia

Slovakia

1

Belgium

Belgium

0

International Match 08/06/24

W

Luxembourg

Luxembourg

0

Belgium

Belgium

3

Key duels

Ousmane Dembele vs Arthur Theate

Ousmane Dembele has been his usual frustrating self at Euro 2024 and has been completing just over a third of his attempted dribbles so far. Nevertheless, the winger has the right package of skills to trouble Belgium’s Arthur Theate, who is more comfortable at centre-half than he is at fullback.

N’golo Kante vs Kevin De Bruyne

33-year-old N’Golo Kante has been rolling back the years for France, making 2.30 tackles per game in Les Bleus’ engine room. His ball-winning prowess will be required again to shackle the creative capabilities of Belgian maestro, Kevin De Bruyne.

Kylian Mbappe vs Timothy Castagne

Even if he’s deployed as a centre-forward, Kylian Mbappe’s tendency to drift into the left channel should put him on a collision course with Timothy Castagne. The Belgian defender was dribbled past twice against Ukraine and he looks ill-equipped to match Mbappe’s pace and trickery.

Player to watch – Kevin De Bruyne

Belgian skipper Kevin De Bruyne has been trying to lead by example at Euro 2024 and while many of his teammates have been below par in Germany, the 33-year-old schemer has been keeping his standards high.

France vs Belgium prediction
Kevin De Bruyne will try to provide inspiration for Belgium – Photo by Icon Sport

De Bruyne’s creativity could be key

Kevin De Bruyne has been playing a staggering 3.70 key passes per game at Euro 2024 on average, though he has yet to be rewarded with an assist. The attacking midfielder is virtually guaranteed to put more chances on a plate against France and will be up to his Belgian counterparts to gobble them up on Monday.

Winner’s next potential opponents

Whoever manages to get to the quarter-finals from this duel will play either Portugal or Slovenia in the next stage. Of course, Portugal are huge favourites and we will likely see them in the quarter-finals, so how would France or Belgium fare against Portugal based on history?

France have a great H2H record against Portugal since the two teams have met 28 times and the French national team have emerged victorious from 19 of those matches, along with three draws and six losses. On the other hand, Belgium won't be as happy to meet with Portugal, although they have done ok against them, with their overall H2H record currently tied: 6-7-6.

After that, if they can eliminate Portugal, the winner of this duel would meet with either Spain or Germany, probably the two teams that have shown the most at the tournament so far. Finally, if they can reach the final, they would probably meet the Netherlands or England as the two main favourites from the other side of the bracket, although Switzerland have shown they shouldn't be underestimated either.

The latest Tweets from each camp

France

Belgium


Simon Winter is a professional football tipster and sports journalist with over ten years in the industry. Best known for his time with Racing Post, Simon has also had work published by Freesupertips, Bloomberg Sports, bet365, Paddy Power, Colossus Bets, These Football Times and more. Simon covers the Bundesliga and Serie A for Football Whispers.