Wales vs Finland prediction, odds & betting tips – 21/03/2024

Wales
21/03/24 - 19:45

Finished

4

-

1

Finland

Wales - Finland

Euro 2024 Qualifying - Cardiff City Stadium

2nd Round

Wales vs Finland prediction
Dan James of Wales during the UEFA Euro Group D Qualifier – Photo by Icon Sport

Wales have the home advantage in this Euro 2024 qualifying match against Finland on Thursday night, where we are predicting a tight and tense 90 minutes.

Harry Wilson top scores for The Dragons in qualifying with three goals but the hosts have a selection of goalcoring options throughout the team and you can find even more goalscoring tips in our betting insights area.

Wales vs Finland predictions: History favours the Welsh

Wales vs Finland Predictions
Our pick

🔥 Hot Tip

Under 2.5 Goals

⚽ Correct Score prediction

Wales 1-0 Finland

Anytime Goalscorer predictions

Kieffer Moore

Key Stats

  • Under 2.5 goals have been produced in five of the last seven meetings between these two countries, while four of Wales' last six international matches have also witnessed fewer than three goals.
  • Wales are unbeaten in their last four encounters with Finland, picking up two wins during that period. The hosts have kept three clean sheets in their last six matches and have scored exactly one goal in each of their last two Euro 2024 qualifiers-
  • Only Aaron Ramsey has scored more goals for Wales than Kieffer Moore in the current squad and we're backing the on-loan Ipswich striker to find the back of the net on Thursday night. Moore has scored three goals in his last seven appearances for Wales, netting 12 times in 39 caps in total.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Bookmakers backing a home win

  • HOME: 9/10 (1.90) – 52.6%
  • DRAW: 5/2 (3.50) – 28.6%
  • AWAY: 39/10 (4.90) – 20.4%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

Wales are the expected winners of this game with a probability of 52.6%, and we tend to agree with the bookmakers on this one.

Wales played out a 1-1 draw against Turkey in their last qualifying match and have won three and drawn three of their last six matches in all competitions. Finland only just managed to beat San Marino 2-1 in their last Euro 2024 qualifier and have managed to secure three wins and three defeats from their last six outings.

For more football betting tips on the game, check out the Both Teams to Score market. You can back BTTS in this game at 16/13 (2.23) which has a probability of 44.8%, but we're backing BTTS – No at 8/11 (1.73) with a probability of 57.9%.

Last five H2Hs: Wales unbeaten in last four

International Match 01/09/21

Finland

Finland

0
Wales

Wales

0

UEFA Nations League 18/11/20

Wales

Wales

3
Finland

Finland

1

UEFA Nations League 03/09/20

Finland

Finland

0
Wales

Wales

1

Wales have picked up two wins and two draws from their last four games against Finland with the pair playing out a goalless draw in their last encounter back in 2021.

Team news and form guide

Wales: Enjoying unbeaten run

Ben Cabango, Tom Lockyer, Joe Morrell and Tom Bradshaw have missed out on selection for one reason or another but captain Aaron Ramsey is back and raring to go.

Predicted lineup: Ward (GK), Davies, Mepham, Roberts, Rodon, Ampadu, Williams, Wilson, Ramsey, Moore & Johnson

Euro 2024 Qualifying 26/03/24

L

Poland

Poland

0 (5)

Wales

Wales

0 (4)

Euro 2024 Qualifying 21/03/24

W

Finland

Finland

1

Wales

Wales

4

Euro 2024 Qualifying 21/11/23

D

Turkey

Turkey

1

Wales

Wales

1

Euro 2024 Qualifying 18/11/23

D

Armenia

Armenia

1

Wales

Wales

1

Euro 2024 Qualifying 15/10/23

W

Croatia

Croatia

1

Wales

Wales

2

Finland: Hit and miss of late

Leo Väisänen, Tomas Galvez and Lucas Lingman are all missing from the latest Finland squad but the likes of Teemu Pukki, Glen Kamara and Lukas Hradecky are all available to play.

Predicted lineup: Hradecky (GK), Soiri, Jensen, Hoskonen, Uronen, Taylor, Lod, Kamara, Schüller, Håkans & Pukki 

International Match 26/03/24

W

Estonia

Estonia

1

Finland

Finland

2

Euro 2024 Qualifying 21/03/24

L

Wales

Wales

4

Finland

Finland

1

Euro 2024 Qualifying 20/11/23

W

San Marino

San Marino

1

Finland

Finland

2

Euro 2024 Qualifying 17/11/23

W

Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland

0

Finland

Finland

4

Euro 2024 Qualifying 17/10/23

L

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan

2

Finland

Finland

1

Player to watch – Brennan Johnson

Brennan Johnson always causes problems for opposition defences with his pace and movement but probably should have scored more than two goals in his 24 caps for Wales.

Brennan Johnson
Brennan Johnson of Wales breaks with the ball during the UEFA Euro Group D Qualifier – Photo by Icon Sport

Johnson, who recently moved to Tottenham Hotspur, has bags of talent and always gives everything on the pitch for his country. The 22-year-old is a very tricky wide forward who has a habit of winding up the opposition as we saw him do against Turkey last time out.

Should be scoring more goals for his country

We're backing Johnson to put in another impressive performance for Wales this week, one which will help guide his team to victory against a tough Finland side.


Avatar of James Kelbrick
James Kelbrick

A lifelong Evertonian, James started writing for an Everton fan site in the mid-2000s and then developed his own blog covering football transfers from across Europe's big leagues before becoming a regular match preview and betting tips writer for Biggest Free Bets. James moved to Free Super Tips next, and then Racing Post, where he worked as a full-time writer for a few years, taking on extra responsibilities such as creating the schedule and assigning out work. Following that, James wrote for a number of websites including Fore Bet before joining Football Whispers in December 2020.