Wales vs Finland prediction, odds & betting tips – 21/03/2024

21/03/24 - 19:45

Finished

4

-

1

Wales - Finland

Euro 2024 Qualifying - Cardiff City Stadium

2nd Round

Wales have the home advantage in this Euro 2024 qualifying match against Finland on Thursday night, where we are predicting a tight and tense 90 minutes.

Harry Wilson top scores for The Dragons in qualifying with three goals but the hosts have a selection of goalcoring options throughout the team and you can find even more goalscoring tips in our betting insights area.

Wales vs Finland predictions: History favours the Welsh

Key Stats

• Under 2.5 goals have been produced in five of the last seven meetings between these two countries, while four of Wales' last six international matches have also witnessed fewer than three goals.
• Wales are unbeaten in their last four encounters with Finland, picking up two wins during that period. The hosts have kept three clean sheets in their last six matches and have scored exactly one goal in each of their last two Euro 2024 qualifiers-
• Only Aaron Ramsey has scored more goals for Wales than Kieffer Moore in the current squad and we're backing the on-loan Ipswich striker to find the back of the net on Thursday night. Moore has scored three goals in his last seven appearances for Wales, netting 12 times in 39 caps in total.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Bookmakers backing a home win

• HOME: 9/10 (1.90) – 52.6%
• DRAW: 5/2 (3.50) – 28.6%
• AWAY: 39/10 (4.90) – 20.4%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

Wales are the expected winners of this game with a probability of 52.6%, and we tend to agree with the bookmakers on this one.

Wales played out a 1-1 draw against Turkey in their last qualifying match and have won three and drawn three of their last six matches in all competitions. Finland only just managed to beat San Marino 2-1 in their last Euro 2024 qualifier and have managed to secure three wins and three defeats from their last six outings.

For more football betting tips on the game, check out the Both Teams to Score market. You can back BTTS in this game at 16/13 (2.23) which has a probability of 44.8%, but we're backing BTTS – No at 8/11 (1.73) with a probability of 57.9%.

Last five H2Hs: Wales unbeaten in last four

International Match 01/09/21

Finland

0

Wales

0

UEFA Nations League 18/11/20

Wales

3

Finland

1

UEFA Nations League 03/09/20

Finland

0

Wales

1

Wales have picked up two wins and two draws from their last four games against Finland with the pair playing out a goalless draw in their last encounter back in 2021.

Team news and form guide

Wales: Enjoying unbeaten run

Ben Cabango, Tom Lockyer, Joe Morrell and Tom Bradshaw have missed out on selection for one reason or another but captain Aaron Ramsey is back and raring to go.

Predicted lineup: Ward (GK), Davies, Mepham, Roberts, Rodon, Ampadu, Williams, Wilson, Ramsey, Moore & Johnson

Europe - World Cup Qualifying 25/03/25

D

North Macedonia

1

Wales

1

Europe - World Cup Qualifying 22/03/25

W

Kazakhstan

1

Wales

3

UEFA Nations League B 19/11/24

W

Iceland

1

Wales

4

UEFA Nations League B 16/11/24

D

Tu00fcrkiye

0

Wales

0

UEFA Nations League B 14/10/24

W

Montenegro

0

Wales

1

Finland: Hit and miss of late

Leo Väisänen, Tomas Galvez and Lucas Lingman are all missing from the latest Finland squad but the likes of Teemu Pukki, Glen Kamara and Lukas Hradecky are all available to play.

Predicted lineup: Hradecky (GK), Soiri, Jensen, Hoskonen, Uronen, Taylor, Lod, Kamara, Schüller, Håkans & Pukki 

Europe - World Cup Qualifying 24/03/25

D

Lithuania

2

Finland

2

Europe - World Cup Qualifying 21/03/25

W

Malta

0

Finland

1

UEFA Nations League B 17/11/24

L

Greece

2

Finland

0

UEFA Nations League B 14/11/24

L

Rep of Ireland

1

Finland

0

UEFA Nations League B 13/10/24

L

England

3

Finland

1

Player to watch – Brennan Johnson

Brennan Johnson always causes problems for opposition defences with his pace and movement but probably should have scored more than two goals in his 24 caps for Wales.

Johnson, who recently moved to Tottenham Hotspur, has bags of talent and always gives everything on the pitch for his country. The 22-year-old is a very tricky wide forward who has a habit of winding up the opposition as we saw him do against Turkey last time out.

Should be scoring more goals for his country

We're backing Johnson to put in another impressive performance for Wales this week, one which will help guide his team to victory against a tough Finland side.