AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior prediction, odds & betting tips 10/03/2024

10/03/24 - 11:15

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AZ - Excelsior

Netherlands Eredivisie - AFAS Stadion

Excelsior welcomed AZ Alkmaar in the reverse fixture and held the Dutch giants to a draw and since then it's been just four league wins for AZ Alkmaar. They will need to improve at home this weekend to keep the gap between themselves and Ajax at five points.

AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior prediction: Must-win game for hosts' European dreams

Key stats

• Excelsior have only failed to score in three league games
• AZ Alkmaar have lost once in their last seven Eredivisie matches
• It's only two wins in nine matches for AZ Alkmaar

Pre-game odds and win probability: AZ Alkmaar expected to revenge for earlier in the season

Home: 2/7 (1.29) – 77.8%

Draw: 19/4 (5.75) – 17.4%

Away: 8/1 (9.0) – 11.1%

Despite the two teams playing out a draw earlier in the season, the bookmakers have AZ Alkmaar as clear favourites, so opting against the outright betting market could be sensible. If that's the case, then be sure to check out the other free betting tips we have on offer.

Instead, we believe that punting on AZ Alkmaar's star striker, Vangelis Pavlidis, to score first in this game, just in the same way we've backed a trio of players in the Premier League to net first on our betting insights page.

Last five H2Hs: There's an even split in this tight fixture

Excelsior have not managed to win any of the last three games against AZ Alkmaar, even conceding 10 goals. However, before that, they won back-to-back matches scoring six in those games, so the draw last time out may be a more likely outcome.

Europe Friendlies 13/07/24

AZ

8

Excelsior

0

Netherlands Eredivisie 04/11/23

Excelsior

1

AZ

1

Netherlands Eredivisie 10/02/23

AZ

5

Excelsior

0

Netherlands Cup 11/01/23

Excelsior

1

AZ

4

Netherlands Eredivisie 23/10/22

Excelsior

2

AZ

1

AZ Alkmaar preview: Looking to win just second home game of 2024

AZ Alkmaar have won just one game in the league this calendar year, but it was one they couldn't afford to lose against Ajax. That sole home victory has seen them open up a five-point gap and put them as favourites to qualify for the Europa Conference League.

Predicted lineup: Ryan (GK) – Wolfe, Goes, Penetra, Sugawara – Clasie, Belic, De Wit – Van Bommel, Pavlidis, Mijnans

Netherlands Eredivisie 09/02/25

W

PEC Zwolle

0

AZ

2

Netherlands Cup 06/02/25

W

Quick Boys

1

AZ

3

Netherlands Eredivisie 02/02/25

W

Willem II

0

AZ

2

UEFA Europa League 30/01/25

L

Ferencvarosi TC

4

AZ

3

Netherlands Eredivisie 26/01/25

L

Sparta Rotterdam

2

AZ

1

Excelsior preview: Any point would be very welcomed

With the Eredivisie relegation battle set to take a twist this weekend when RKC Waalwijk take on Vitesse, Excleisor would do anything to pick up at least a point on the road, because if not they could drop into the bottom three.

Predicted lineup: Van Gassel (GK) – Zagre, El Yaakoubi, Nieuwpoort, Horemans – Baas, Sandra, Duijvestijn – Goudmijn, Parrott, Sanches Fernandes

Netherlands Eerste Divisie 10/02/25

L

Ajax Reserves

3

Excelsior

2

Netherlands Eerste Divisie 01/02/25

L

Vitesse

3

Excelsior

1

Netherlands Eerste Divisie 26/01/25

W

ADO Den Haag

0

Excelsior

1

Netherlands Eerste Divisie 17/01/25

L

Cambuur Leeuwarden

1

Excelsior

0

Netherlands Cup 14/01/25

L

PSV

5

Excelsior

4

Player to watch: Vangelis Pavlidis

Although AZ Alkmaar's Greek striker was in fine form earlier this season scoring 13 goals in his opening nine league games, it's been a sharp fall-off since then. Pavlidis has since managed to only find the back of the net eight times in 13 Eredivisie appearances.

Home comforts will suit the Greek star

Pavlidis has found a lot of comfort when playing in front of his home fans having only failed to score in three games at the AFAS Stadion. So, Excelsior will know he is the major threat to watch out for on Sunday.