Euro 2024 playoff draw and predictions

With only a handful of qualifiers left to play, the competitors for the Euro 2024 playoff draw have largely fallen into place. Here’s a look at the draw and our predictions to make it to Germany.

Euro 2024 playoff draw and predictions: latest news

Who has qualified for the draw?

The playoff spots for these playoffs are determined by nations’ performance in the UEFA Nations League, rather than their European Qualifier performance. 

Twelve sides are selected, the group winners of Leagues A, B and C, but if they are already qualified, which many have, they will be replaced by the next best-ranked team in their league.

The following sides have qualified based on their performance in the 2022/23 Nations League performances:

Euro 2024 playoff paths
Source: Football Rankings via X.com

When is the draw?

The draw takes place on Thursday 23 November at 11:00 GMT at The House of European Football in Nyon, Switzerland.

How does it work?

The paths will be broken down into two semi-finals and a final via the draw.

Three subsequent draws will be held to determine which semi-final winner gets the right to host their respective playoff final.

The semi-finals will take place on 21 March 2024 and the three finals on 26 March 2024.

Robert Lewandowski of Poland
(Photo by Mikolaj Barbanell / SOPA Images/Sipa USA) – Photo by Icon sport

Euro 2024 playoff draw and predictions: Our favourites

Path A

Only the great Robert Lewandowski remains from Poland’s dynamite trio that once hailed from Dortmund, as Jakub Blaszczykowki and Lukasz Piszczek have long since retired from international duty. Still, the Poles are a cut above lowly Estonia who languish 118th in the world rankings. Poland boast the likes of Napoli’s creative maestro Piotr Zielinski in midfield and Arsenal’s Jakub Kiwior in defence.

In the other semi-final, Ukraine are our other Path A pick if drawn against Wales, though with just six places separating them in FIFA's rankings, there is plenty of scope for a surprise.

Prediction to qualify: Poland & Ukraine or Wales

Ermedin Demirovic of Bosnia and Herzegovina
Photo: Armin Durgut/PIXSELL – Photo by Icon sport

Path B

Just eight places separate Bosnia and Herzegovina from Israel in the world rankings. Bosnia are not the same force without all-time top scorer Edin Dzeko, but still have quality players such as Atalanta’s Sead Kolasinac and AC Milan’s Rade Krunic to call on.

Meanwhile, Israel’s two shining lights could not be much further apart in age.

Thirty six-year-old Eran Zahavi is their all time top scorer, and 19-year-old midfielder Oscar Gloukh has shone for RB Salzburg. The pair are quite evenly matched, and Finland and Iceland are of a similar calibre too.

Ukraine, however, led by passionate skipper Oleksandr Zinchenko are a cut above, with far more players in Europe’s top five leagues.

Prediction to qualify: Bosnia & Ukraine* / Iceland & Ukraine* / Iceland & Bosnia

*Assuming Ukraine are not contesting Path A.

Greece players celebrate a goal
Picture by Yannis Halas/Focus Images/Sipa USA 21/11/2023 – Photo by Icon sport

Path C

Greece stands tall above qualification rivals Georgia, Kazakhstan and Luxembourg. Despite a ranking of 51st in FIFA’s World rankings, they are a long way ahead of Georgia, who are the second highest in this path at 76th.

Besides Georgia's Neapolitan superstar Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Greece also clearly possess the best squad. Striker Georgios Giakoumakis was voted MLS’ best newcomer last season, and already has two goals and two assists in three games this season.

Their backline is filled with Premier League quality, with Liverpool’s Tsimikas at left back, West Ham’s towering Mavropanos at centre-back, and Forest’s Odysseas Vlachodimos between the posts. This is an easy pick.

Prediction to qualify: Greece & Georgia

See also: Today's football betting tips


William Evans is a football and politics fanatic. A first-class graduate of UEA's Broadcast and Digital Journalism MA course, he also achieved a first class degree in politics and media studies during his time at UEA.