Who will find love in the form of three points this Valentine's Day when mid-table QPR play host to relegation-battlers Derby County in the Championship?
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QPR vs Derby prediction: A low-scoring affair?
Key Stats
- Under 2.5 goals have been produced in five of Derby's last six outings.
- Three of QPR's last six league games have witnessed fewer than three goals.
- QPR have won four of their last six encounters with the Rams.
Correct score prediction: QPR 1-0 Derby
Derby County have only conceded more than one goal in one of their last five fixtures, but the visitors have also failed to score in four of their last six matches, which is why we're backing QPR to claim a narrow 1-0 victory on Friday night.
Pre-game odds and win probability: QPR the favourite
- HOME: 13/10 (2.30) – 43.5%
- DRAW: 5/2 (3.50) – 28.6%
- AWAY: 29/13 (3.23) – 31%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
QPR are the expected winner of this game with a probability of 43.5% and we agree with the bookmakers on this selection.
You can find all our predictions for today's games on our football betting tips page.
Most recent H2Hs: QPR in front
Friday's hosts have picked up three wins and suffered two defeats in their last five games against Derby with the Rams claiming a 2-0 victory when the pair met in October.
England Championship 05/10/24
Derby
QPR
England Championship 18/04/22
QPR
Derby
England Championship 29/11/21
Derby
QPR
England Championship 23/01/21
QPR
Derby
England Championship 04/11/20
Derby
QPR
QPR preview: Won three of last six
Martí Cifuentes' men made the trip to Coventry City on Tuesday night where a solitary late goal proved enough to decide the destination of all three points.
This game appeared to be heading for a goalless draw, despite the best efforts of both sets of players, until deep into stoppage time when Coventry scored a dramatic winning goal.
Forward Zan Celar and midfielder Lucas Andersen have both been ruled out of the Derby game due to injury.
Predicted lineup: Nardi (GK), Cook, Paal, Dunne, Edwards, Colback, Chair, Field, Frey, Smyth & Saito
England Championship 03/05/25
W
Sunderland
0
QPR
1
England Championship 26/04/25
L
Burnley
5
QPR
0
England Championship 21/04/25
L
Swansea
2
QPR
1
England Championship 18/04/25
W
Preston
1
QPR
2
England Championship 12/04/25
D
Bristol City
1
QPR
1
Derby preview: Lost four of last six
The Rams were looking to build upon a well-earned point at Norwich when they played host to Oxford United in midweek.
However, neither side were able to make the breakthrough in what turned out to be a goalless draw that won't live long in the memory for either set of fans in attendance.
Hamstring injuries look set to keep Kane Wilson, Dajaune Brown and Corey Blackett-Taylor out of the trip to the capital, though, each is expected to return to action before the end of the month.
Predicted lineup: Widell Zetterstrom (GK), Clarke, Elder, Phillips, Langas, Adams, Goudmijn, Ozoh, Mendez-Laing, Jackson & Salvesen
England Championship 03/05/25
D
Stoke
0
Derby
0
England Championship 26/04/25
W
Hull
0
Derby
1
England Championship 21/04/25
W
West Brom
1
Derby
3
England Championship 18/04/25
L
Luton
1
Derby
0
England Championship 12/04/25
D
Portsmouth
2
Derby
2
Player to watch: Ilias Chair
QPR's Moroccan midfielder Ilas Chair is enjoying another fruitful campaign for the London club despite not yet scoring a single league goal.
Chair, who has been at QPR since 2017, is usually good for between four to nine Championship goals per season but is yet to find the back of the net in 20 appearances of the 2024/25 campaign.
Chair has provided the creative spark for QPR this season
However, Chair is the top assists provider for QPR this season, setting up five goals so far, and we're backing the 27-year-old to put in another top performance against a Derby side that should prove tricky to break down.