It is Championship up against Premier League in the third round of the FA Cup as Derby welcome Leeds to Pride Park at Sunday lunchtime. The Rams are currently in 13th place in the Championship table, while the Whites are 16th in the English top flight.
The gap is only 17 places in total in the English pyramid, but there could still be a gulf in quality given the riches of the Premier League. Nonetheless, it is set up to be an intriguing cup tie.
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Derby vs Leeds prediction: Whites to show Premier League quality?
Key stats
- Derby have lost two of their last three games.
- Leeds have lost just once in eight matches.
- Leeds have also won the previous three H2Hs.
Correct score prediction: Derby 1-2 Leeds
Leeds should still have too much quality for Derby, even if they rotate their starting XI, and are in decent form at the minute despite narrowly losing to Newcastle in a 4-3 thriller at St. James' Park last time out. The Rams should put up a fight on home soil, but the Premier League outfit should emerge victorious.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Leeds favourites with bookmakers
- HOME: 7/2 (4.50) – 22.2%
- DRAW: 27/10 (3.70) – 27.0%
- AWAY: 3/4 (1.75) – 57.1%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
As shown by the implied probabilities, Leeds are the favourites with bookmakers to claim victory on their travels and thus progress into the fourth round of the competition. A draw after normal time can still be backed at 27%, while a Derby upset is rated at just over 22%.
Also, feel free to check out our dedicated Today’s betting tips page for more of our expert FA Cup predictions.
Most recent H2Hs: Leeds aiming for four in a row
As mentioned before, Leeds have won the last three meetings between the two sides. Their unbeaten run stretches further to four H2Hs, and playing in a higher division, they should be confident of another positive result here.
England Championship 29/12/24
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Leeds
England Championship 07/12/24
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Derby
England Championship 19/07/20
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Derby preview: A few injuries
Derby have a few players that will miss this clash through injury in Carlton Morris, David Ozoh, Max Johnston and Owen Beck. Still, we are expecting the Rams to field a strong starting XI as they look to give themselves the best possible opportunity of beating a Premier League side.
Predicted lineup: Zetterstrom (GK); Langas, Sanderson, Clarke; Ward, Thompson, Clark, Elder; Brereton Diaz, Agyemang & Brewster
Last five results:
- Derby 1-2 Wrexham
- Derby 1-0 Middlesbrough
- Leicester 2-1 Derby
- Birmingham 1-1 Derby
- Derby 1-1 Portsmouth
Leeds preview: Bogle doubtful
Jayden Bogle is doubtful for Leeds through injury, while Daniel James is definitely out. The Whites could choose to rotate their team and give some of their fringe players some minutes from the start.
Predicted lineup: Darlow (GK); Rodon, Bijol, Struijk; Byram, Tanaka, Ampadu, Gruev, Harrison; Piroe & Gnonto
Last five results:
- Newcastle 4-3 Leeds
- Leeds 1-1 Manchester United
- Liverpool 0-0 Leeds
- Sunderland 1-1 Leeds
- Leeds 4-1 Crystal Palace
Player to watch: Brenden Aaronson
Brenden Aaronson's brace against Newcastle means he has scored three goals in his last two appearances for Leeds. His extra quality could help make the difference against Derby.