france vs croatia prediction
🔥 Our Hot tip

France to win and BTTS

France have conceded at least one goal in each of their last three victories.

France will look to overturn a two-goal deficit when they take on Croatia in the second leg of their UEFA Nations League quarter-final on Sunday, 23 March.

The hosts are looking to become the first country to win the Nations League twice but if they play like they did in Croatia on Thursday night then that pursuit will end in Paris on Sunday night.

Croatia, meanwhile, are on a path of redemption as they look to to go one better than they managed in 2023 when they lost the Nations League final to Spain.

As part of this week's round of Nations League betting tips, check out our France vs Croatia prediction below.

Croatia vs France prediction: The hosts to win on the night

Key Stats

  • France have won four of their last six UEFA Nations League matches.
  • Croatia have failed to win any of their last six away matches.
  • More than two goals have been scored in five of France's last seven matches.

Correct score prediction: France 2-1 Croatia

Their performance in Croatia on Thursday was an anomaly rather than the norm when you look at how France have fared in recent times. It would be a shock if they were to perform as badly as that again, particularly at the Stade de France. Croatia's away form is undoubtedly a concern so it's hard to imagine them winning in Paris.

Pre-game odds and win probability: France start as big favourites

  • HOME: 4/9 (1.44) – 69.2%
  • DRAW: 7/2 (4.50) – 22.2%
  • AWAY: 11/2 (6.50) – 15.4%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

The France vs Croatia odds are a slight surprise given that it was only a few days ago that the team now priced at 11/2 to win beat the team priced at 4/9. Regardless, France are the big favourites for this one and Ladbrokes have given them a 69.2% chance of victory while Croatia have been given just a 15.4% of coming out on top.

You can find all our predictions for today's games on our football betting tips page.

Most recent H2Hs: Advantage Croatia

Croatia have been somewhat of a bogey team for France in recent times with Luka Modric and co undefeated in their last three matches against Les Bleus. On Thursday night, they were dominant from start to finish and well worth their 2-0 victory. Can they now repeat that performance at the Stade de France?

UEFA Nations League 20/03/25

Croatia

Croatia

2
France

France

0

UEFA Nations League 13/06/22

France

France

0
Croatia

Croatia

1

UEFA Nations League 06/06/22

Croatia

Croatia

1
France

France

1

UEFA Nations League 14/10/20

Croatia

Croatia

1
France

France

2

UEFA Nations League 08/09/20

France

France

4
Croatia

Croatia

2

France preview: A final hurrah for Deschamps

Didier Deschamps revealed at the start of the year that he will step down as the French national team coach after the 2026 World Cup. While the ultimate aim will be to ride off into the sunset with another World Cup under his belt, winning the Nations League again would also be a nice way to finish. He will need his team to respond, though, after Thursday's shambolic showing.

Predicted lineup: Maignan (GK), Kounde, Upamecano, Saliba, Hernandez, Camavinga, Tchouameni, Camavinga, Dembele, Olise, Barcola, Mbappe

UEFA Nations League 23/03/25

W

Croatia

Croatia

0

France

France

2

UEFA Nations League 20/03/25

L

Croatia

Croatia

2

France

France

0

UEFA Nations League A 17/11/24

W

Italy

Italy

1

France

France

3

UEFA Nations League A 14/11/24

D

Israel

Israel

0

France

France

0

UEFA Nations League A 14/10/24

W

Belgium

Belgium

1

France

France

2

Croatia preview: The old guard continue to get the job done

The transition from the Croatian old guard to new blood is going to come at some point, but Croatia seem to be content with getting as much as they possibly can out of the likes of Luka Modric, Ivan Perisic and Mateo Kovacic while they still can. It was the 36-year-old Perisic who stole the show on Thursday, scoring and setting up another.

Predicted lineup: Livakovic (GK), Caleta-Car, Sutalo, Gvardiol, Stanisic, Kovacic, Modric, Sosa, Perisic, Kramaric, Budimir

UEFA Nations League 23/03/25

L

France

France

2

Croatia

Croatia

0

UEFA Nations League 20/03/25

W

France

France

0

Croatia

Croatia

2

UEFA Nations League A 18/11/24

D

Portugal

Portugal

1

Croatia

Croatia

1

UEFA Nations League A 15/11/24

L

Scotland

Scotland

1

Croatia

Croatia

0

UEFA Nations League A 15/10/24

D

Poland

Poland

3

Croatia

Croatia

3

Player to watch: Kylian Mbappe

Kylian Mbappe
Photo by Imago

Kylian Mbappe has proven his worth to Real Madrid this season, stepping up in some big moments for the club to put them in a great position both domestically and in Europe going into the final few months of the season. His national team now need him to stand up and deliver and given his track record of doing exactly that over the years, you'd be foolish to bet against him bailing them out again here.


Andy is a freelance Sports Journalist with ten years of experience covering football in the United Kingdom and abroad for various publications including the Manchester Evening News, UtdReport and Football Whispers. Andy also has a keen interest in basketball, cricket, golf and tennis and has covered major sporting events such as the Masters in Augusta.