An interesting fixture is on the cards as Benfica and Nacional Madeira lock horns at Estadio da Luz on Saturday, 8 March 2025. View our free Benfica vs Nacional predictions below.
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Benfica vs Nacional predictions: Goals expected to flow
Key stats
- Benfica are unbeaten in their last 21 clashes with Nacional Madeira (W19, D2).
- Seven of the last 10 top flight clashes between these teams went above the 3.5-goal threshold.
- Nacional suffered eight defeats in their last 10 away games.
- Benfica have averaged over three goals per game at home this season.
Correct score prediction: Benfica 3-1 Nacional
Nacional suffered 19 defeats in their last 21 clashes with Benfica. While the visitors have lost eight of their last 10 away games in all competitions, Benfica have 11 wins in 12 home games in the Portuguese top flight. On that note, this should be business as usual for Benfica.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Benfica are overwhelming favourites
- HOME: 2/9 (1.22) – 81.8%
- DRAW: 11/2 (6.50) – 15.4%
- AWAY: 11/1 (12.00) – 8.3%
*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Despite having a one-man advantage for over 70 minutes, Benfica lost the first leg of their UEFA Champions League quarter-final tie with Barcelona at home earlier this week.
However, Bruno Lage’s men have won four consecutive Primeira Liga games, scoring 10 goals in the process. They are up against a Nacional side that won only one of 12 away games this season.
As it stands, Nacional are 12th in the Portuguese top flight ahead of their clash with second-placed Benfica.
Given their impressive home record in the Primeira Liga (11 wins from 12), it is no surprise that Benfica are the expected winners at 2/9 (1.22). Teams with these odds generally have an 81.8% probability of winning.
Don’t forget to check out more of our best betting tips and predictions after you’ve dissected our Benfica vs Nacional predictions.
Interestingly, an even number of goals were scored in five consecutive meetings between Benfica and Nacional. On that note, even total goals has an appealing look at 17/20 (1.85). That one has a 54.1% chance of landing.
Most recent H2Hs: Business as usual for Benfica?
Nacional have no wins in their last 21 clashes with Benfica (D2, L19). The last time they defeated Benfica was in August 2010.
Portugal Primeira Liga 19/12/24
Nacional
Benfica
Portugal Primeira Liga 06/10/24
Nacional
Benfica
Portugal Primeira Liga 11/05/21
Nacional
Benfica
Portugal Primeira Liga 25/01/21
Benfica
Nacional
Portugal Primeira Liga 10/02/19
Benfica
Nacional
Benfica preview: Looking to get back on course
Following their disappointing home loss to Barcelona in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday, despite playing more than an hour with a one-man advantage, Benfica will look to return to winning ways on Saturday but may rest some key players ahead of next week's trip to Barcelona.
Nonetheless, they will remain without Angel Di Maria, Tiago Gouveia and Florentino Luis for short term injuries, while Manu Silva and Alexander Bah have long-term cruciate ligament injuries.
Predicted lineup: Trubin (GK), Araujo, Silva, Otamendi, Carreras, Barreiro, Aursnes, Kokcu, Cabral, Rego & Bellotti.
UEFA Champions League 05/03/25
L
Barcelona
1
Benfica
0
Portugal Cup 26/02/25
W
Braga
0
Benfica
1
Portugal Primeira Liga 22/02/25
W
Boavista
0
Benfica
3
UEFA Champions League 18/02/25
D
Monaco
3
Benfica
3
Portugal Primeira Liga 15/02/25
W
Santa Clara
0
Benfica
1
Nacional preview: No new injury concerns
Eyeing a top 10 finish in the Liga Portugal Betclic this season, 12th-placed CD Nacional will be confident in their chances of earning a good result on the road, as only midfielder Miguel Baeza is sidelined because of injury.
Predicted lineup: Franca (GK), Garcia, Ulisses, Vitor, Appiah, Soumare, Esteves, Dudu, Penha, Boia & Isaac.
Portugal Primeira Liga 01/03/25
W
Famalicao
1
Nacional
2
Portugal Primeira Liga 21/02/25
L
Braga
1
Nacional
0
Portugal Primeira Liga 15/02/25
D
Estoril
2
Nacional
2
Portugal Primeira Liga 09/02/25
W
SC Farense
0
Nacional
2
Portugal Primeira Liga 01/02/25
L
Arouca
2
Nacional
1
Player to watch: Vangelis Pavlidis
Vangelis Pavlidis has been in sensational form in recent weeks, scoring thrice and providing an assist in his last four appearances across all competitions. The Greek forward will be called upon to provide goals this weekend.