The EFL Cup returns with a banger of a game – the Burnley vs Derby County head-to-head on 26 August. The match will be held at Turf Moor, which, understandably, gives coach Scott Parker’s players a fair advantage. Moreover, Derby County come into the game without recording a single Championship win, which makes Tuesday’s clash all the more interesting.
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Burnley vs Derby County prediction: Rams stand no chance
Key Stats
- Coach John Eustace has a negative 0-3-2 record versus Burnley.
- The last 10 matches between the two clubs resulted in six Burnley wins and four draws.
- Derby County’s last triumph over this opponent came on 30 January 2007.
Correct score prediction: Burnley 2-0 Derby County
Derby County’s last win at Turf Moor was registered on 22 October 2004. It seems that there’s some sort of curse hanging over the Rams’ heads, and we doubt they’ll be able to shake it off in this EFL Cup, which is clearly a David vs Goliath battle.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Rams unlikely to advance
- HOME: 11/20 (1.55) – 64.5%
- DRAW: 31/10 (4.10) – 24.4%
- AWAY: 53/10 (6.30) – 15.9%
*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
The Burnley vs Derby County head-to-head does have a favourite to win, and with odds priced at 11/20 (1.55), it’s fair to say that the Clarets are the expected winners, with a 64.5% win probability behind them.
It’s very likely for the fans at Turf Moor to see under 0.5 Derby County total goals. The odds are stacked at 5/4 (2.25), which means there’s a 44.4% probability for the visitors to fail in their quest of scoring a consolation goal.
Check out the rest of our key football betting tips today for more data.
Most recent H2Hs: Can the Rams break the curse?
It’s been almost 20 years since Derby County last managed to beat Burnley. The 2007 match was won by the rams via an early 4th-minute opener by Steve Howard.
England Championship 08/04/25
Derby
Burnley
England Championship 10/12/24
Burnley
Derby
England Championship 25/01/16
Burnley
Derby
England Championship 21/09/15
Derby
Burnley
Burnley team news and form: Parker to use the bench
Some of Burnley’s players are injured and won’t play at Turf Moor this week. We are talking about the likes of Zeki Amdouni and Armando Broja. However, the manager has plenty of quality players to pick from, so he should have no issues securing a win.
Predicted lineup: Dubravka (GK), Ekdal, Walker, Esteve, Hartman, Ugochukwu, Cullen, Anthony, Mejbri, Larsen & Foster
England Championship 03/05/25
W
Millwall
1
Burnley
3
England Championship 26/04/25
W
QPR
0
Burnley
5
England Championship 21/04/25
W
Sheff Utd
1
Burnley
2
England Championship 18/04/25
W
Watford
1
Burnley
2
England Championship 11/04/25
W
Norwich
1
Burnley
2
Derby County team news and form: Rams can’t catch a break
Sure, the team won its first EFL Cup match against West Brom, but was it a convincing will? Of course, not. After all, coach John Eustace’s players had to rely on the penalty shoot-out to qualify for the next round of the competition.
Predicted lineup: Zetterstrom (GK), Sanderson, Batth, Clarke, Elder, Thompson, Nyambe, Ozoh, Adams, Weimann & Morris
England Championship 03/05/25
D
Stoke
0
Derby
0
England Championship 26/04/25
W
Hull
0
Derby
1
England Championship 21/04/25
W
West Brom
1
Derby
3
England Championship 18/04/25
L
Luton
1
Derby
0
England Championship 12/04/25
D
Portsmouth
2
Derby
2
Player to watch: Carlton Morris
Carlton Morris is enjoying the best days of his professional career, as his 2025/26 display is really something else, with three goals in three games for the Rams. However, he did get booked and failed to provide an assist to a teammate.
Can Morris top last season’s display?
Morris previously played for Luton Town. For the Hatters, the striker bagged eight goals in 41 Championship appearances, whilst also recording two assists. Surely, the 29-year-old player has a good chance of topping that record, as he is on penalty duty for his new team right now.