Qarabag vs Braga prediction, odds & betting tips – 22/02/2024

22/02/24 - 17:45

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FK Qarabag - Braga

UEFA Europa League - Azersun Arena

A shock home defeat in the first leg of their Europa League knockout game has Sporting Braga staring down the barrel of elimination. Qarabag caused one of the biggest upsets of the round winning 4-2 over in Portugal meaning they hold an overwhelming advantage in this huge clash.

Qarabag vs Braga prediction: Braga looking to keep their Europa League adventure alive

Qarabag are likely to sit back and soak up pressure from a Braga side knowing they must win on the night by at least two goals given their fumbled efforts last week. This becomes even more tricky when considering Braga have lost three of their last four away matches.

Pre-game odds and win probability: A tight affair is expected on the night

Home: 11/5 (3.2) – 31.3%

Draw: 5/2 (3.5) – 28.6%

Away: 23/20 (2.15) – 46.5%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

When analysing the form of both sides, it's perhaps not a surprise to have seen Qarabag come out on top with the Azerbaijani side having lost just once in their last 16 games across all competitions. Braga on the other hand, have failed to win eight of their last 15 matches across all competitions including damning defeats against Qarabag, Sporting CP, FC Porto and also Benfica.

Last five H2Hs: Qarabag won the very first meeting last week

UEFA Europa League 15/02/24

Braga

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FK Qarabag

4

It was the first ever clash between these two sides last week so there were always going to be surprises with neither team having pitted themselves against one another. Despite dominating the ball with 59% possession, it was Qarabag who were far more efficient scoring four goals from their five shots on target.

Team news and form guide

Qarabag: Home comforts set to benefit Azerbaijani champions

The only team to have beaten Qarabag in Europe this season are Bundesliga leaders, Bayer Leverkusen, so they are certainly a tough nut to crack home and away.

Predicted lineup: Lunev (GK) – Cafarquliyev, Huseynov, Mustafazada, Matheus Silva – Romao, Jankovic – Zoubir, Benzia, Leandro Andrade – Juninho

Azerbaijan Premier League 01/09/24

W

Zira IK

1

FK Qarabag

3

UEFA Champions League Qualifying 28/08/24

L

Dinamo Zagreb

2

FK Qarabag

0

Azerbaijan Premier League 24/08/24

L

PFK Turan Tovuz

1

FK Qarabag

0

UEFA Champions League Qualifying 20/08/24

L

Dinamo Zagreb

3

FK Qarabag

0

UEFA Champions League Qualifying 13/08/24

W

Ludogorets Razgrad

2

FK Qarabag

7

Braga: Away form is a major concern

Braga were dumped out of the Champions League and into the Europa League, but after a disastrous first leg, they must now win away from home, something they've done just once in their past four attempts.

Predicted lineup: Matheus (GK) – Borja, Niakate, Fonte, Joe Mendes – Moutinho, Zalazar – Ruiz, Pizzi, Roger – Banza

Portugal Primeira Liga 01/09/24

D

Gil Vicente

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Braga

0

UEFA Europa League Qualifying 29/08/24

D

Rapid Vienna

2

Braga

2

Portugal Primeira Liga 25/08/24

W

Moreirense

1

Braga

3

UEFA Europa League Qualifying 22/08/24

W

Rapid Vienna

1

Braga

2

Portugal Primeira Liga 18/08/24

W

Boavista

0

Braga

1

Our free expert picks: 2-1 to Braga with Benzia scoring anytime

While the outright winner may be too close for you to call, there are sure to be other free betting tips to tempt you.

This game is sure to bring chaos and excitement with Braga knowing they must go all out to win convincingly. So, you may back the Portuguese side to win throughout and back Braga/Braga at odds of 13/5 (3.6) with a relatively pleasing probability figure of 27.8%

Elsewhere, you may believe Qarabag will hold firm and pull off another impressive big victory like in the first leg. If so, then Both Teams to Score and Qarabag to win stands at 4/1 (5.0 – 20%) which is a rather good value given how the previous encounter played out.

Hot tip – Over 1.5 goals

• The last fixture saw way over 1.5 goals scored between the sides
• Only four home games have produced under 1.5 goals for Qarabag this season

Other tips

Qarabag 1-2 Braga

• Qarabag are likely to sit back knowing Braga need a miracle to progress
• Braga have scored exactly two goals in their previous two matches

Yassine Benzia to score anytime

• Benzia has two in his last two league games
• The Algerian international scored on his last European outing at home

Player to watch – Simon Banza

Simon Banza has had a dream season for both club and country. The striker has 15 goals in 16 league appearances this campaign, has scored in his only Europa League match this term and helped DR Congo reach the semi-final of AFCON 2023.

Banza to continue perfect Europa League start?

Banza has been the bright light for Braga this term having only failed to score in four league games all season and appears to be translating that form over into the Europa League. Despite Braga falling to a heavy defeat against Qarabag, it was Banza who initially levelled things up late in the first half.