Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz 05 prediction, odds & betting tips 13/02/2026

Borussia Dortmund have the chance to temporarily go within three points of league leaders Bayern Munich when they welcome Mainz 05 to Signal Iduna Park this Friday night. 

Can the hosts add life to a dull title race, or will the visitors manage to bag their fourth straight Bundesliga victory? Read our Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz prediction and preview to find out, but don’t forget to also check out our other Bundesliga predictions here.

Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz prediction: Thrilling encounter on the cards

Key Stats

• Borussia Dortmund are in the midst of a 14-match unbeaten run in the Bundesliga.
• Borussia Dortmund are the only team in the Bundesliga yet to taste defeat at home.
• Mainz have been awarded the second-most yellow cards this Bundesliga season, with 54 to their name.
• Mainz have won a Bundesliga-high eight penalties, turning seven of them into goals.

Correct score prediction: Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Mainz

Back in May 2023, Borussia Dortmund went into the final day of the season needing a victory over Mainz to claim their first league crown in 11 years.

Die Nullfunfer did not follow the script and battled to a 2-2 draw at Signal Iduna Park as they handed the title to Bayern Munich.

Three years on, we have a similar situation on our hands. Dortmund need all three points to have any chance of catching the seemingly indomitable Bavarians, though a red-hot Mainz side may have other plans.

The visitors, who seemed destined for relegation just a few weeks ago, are in the midst of an incredible winning run after picking up four victories from five games.

With Dortmund dreaming of a title push and Mainz still needing points to secure Bundesliga survival, the stakes are high. With that in mind, we are backing a high-scoring draw.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Bookies fancy hosts

HOME: 57/100 (1.57) – 63.7%

DRAW: 333/100 (4.33) – 23.1%

AWAY: 4/1 (5.00) – 20%

*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

Looking at those Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz odds, it is clear that the bookmakers fancy the home team to get the job done.

If you liked our predictions for this game, remember to also check our betting tips for today.

Most recent H2Hs: History of mixed results

Borussia Dortmund may have won their last two games against Mainz, but when you look further into the past, the picture becomes slightly different.

The last six head-to-head encounters have produced two wins for Dortmund, two wins for Mainz and also two draws.

It is worth noting that both teams to score has also landed in four of those six matches.

Germany Bundesliga I 27/09/25

Mainz

0

Borussia Dortmund

2

Germany Bundesliga I 30/03/25

Borussia Dortmund

3

Mainz

1

Germany Bundesliga I 09/11/24

Mainz

3

Borussia Dortmund

1

Germany Bundesliga I 11/05/24

Mainz

3

Borussia Dortmund

0

Germany Bundesliga I 19/12/23

Borussia Dortmund

1

Mainz

1

Borussia Dortmund preview: Potential selection issues for hosts

Spirits are high at Borussia Dortmund after Niko Kovac and his men powered to a fifth straight Bundesliga win, beating a struggling Wolfsburg side 2-1 last weekend.

Despite the positives, the hosts will be without centre-back Nico Schlotterbeck on Friday due to a suspension. With Filippo Calixte Mane and Emre Can also sidelined, there are cracks in Dortmund’s defence. 

Elsewhere, Marcel Sabitzer has recovered from a calf injury, but there are concerns over his fitness. The same goes for Karim Adeyemi who is recovering from an ankle injury.

Predicted lineup: Kobel (GK), Sule, Anton, Bensebaini, Ryerson, Bellingham, Nmecha, Svensson, Brandt, Beier & Guirassy

Last five matches

VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga)

Borussia Dortmund 3-2 FC Heidenheim (Bundesliga)

Borussia Dortmund 0-2 Inter Milan (UEFA Champions League) 

FC Union Berlin 0-3 Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga)

Tottenham Hotspur 2-0 Borussia Dortmund (UEFA Champions League)

Mainz preview: Visitors fighting for Bundesliga survival

One loss from 10, four wins from five, and out of the relegation zone. Urs Fischer has done a tremendous job since taking over a Mainz team that seemed nailed on for the drop.

The visitors remain without goalkeeper Robin Zentner due to injury, while centre-back Maxim Dal is on the mend and could make his return soon. 

Anthony Caci and Lennard Maloney are expected to be on the sidelines, and they will be joined by Benedict Hollerbach who is out for the season.

Predicted lineup: Batz (GK), Posch, Bell, Kohr, Da Costa, Lee, Sano, Amiri, Widmer; Silas & Tietz

Last five matches

Mainz 2-0 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)

RB Leipzig 1-2 Mainz (Bundesliga)

Mainz 3-1 VfL Wolfsburg (Bundesliga)

FC Koln 2-1 Mainz (Bundesliga)

Mainz 2-1 FC Heidenheim (Bundesliga)

Player to watch: Julian Brandt

Julian Brandt scored his fourth match opener this season during Dortmund’s last win against Wolfsburg – a goal which proved vital in the 2-1 victory.

Brandt also assisted both goals in their 2-0 win over Mainz earlier this season. The 29-year-old will be looking to add to his tally this Friday night.