Birmingham City will be hoping to cause an upset in the fourth round of the FA Cup when they host Leeds United at St Andrew's @ Knighthead Park at Sunday lunchtime. Sitting in 10th place at the Championship table, they face a team just 14 places above them in the English football pyramid, with Leeds 16th in the Premier League.
Birmingham beat Cambridge 3-2 away from home in the third round to get here, while the Whites were also victorious on their travels, beating Derby 3-1. Nonetheless, we are expecting an exciting cup tie in the Midlands.
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Birmingham vs Leeds prediction: Extra-time and penalties needed to separate sides?
Key stats
- Birmingham are unbeaten in eight games in all competitions, winning five.
- Leeds have lost just once in six matches across all competitions.
- Birmingham have also won three of the previous four H2Hs on home soil.
Correct score prediction: Birmingham 2-2 Leeds
After normal time, we can see both teams playing out a draw. Birmingham and Leeds are in good form heading into this clash, and so we could see plenty of goals in both ends too.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Leeds favourites with bookmakers
- HOME: 21/10 (3.10) – 32.3%
- DRAW: 13/5 (3.60) – 27.8%
- AWAY: 23/20 (2.15) – 46.5%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
As shown by the implied probabilities, Leeds are the favourites with bookmakers to win after 90 minutes and progress into the next round. A Birmingham victory can still be backed at over 32%, while a draw is rated at just under 28%.
Also, feel free to check out our dedicated Today’s betting tips page for more of our expert FA Cup predictions.
Most recent H2Hs: Birmingham strong at home
As mentioned before, Birmingham have actually won three of the last four meetings when playing at home, giving them a chance of causing an upset here. Leeds have won three of the previous four meetings generally though, so the Blues know just how tough of a test it is likely to be.
England Championship 01/01/24
Leeds
Birmingham
England Championship 12/08/23
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Leeds
Birmingham preview: Seung-ho injury blow
Paik Seung-ho is set to miss out for Birmingham after picking up an injury in midweek. Ethan Laird, Alex Cochrane and Lee Buchanan are all longer-term absentees.
Predicted lineup: Allsop (GK); Iwata, Klarer, Neumann, Wagner; Doyle, Solis, Vicente, Stansfield, Gray & Priske
Last five results:
- 10/02/26: Birmingham 0-0 West Brom (Championship)
- 07/02/26: Birmingham 2-1 Leicester (Championship)
- 31/01/26: Oxford United 0-2 Birmingham (Championship)
- 24/01/26: Birmingham 1-1 Stoke (Championship)
- 20/01/26: Sheffield Wednesday 0-2 Birmingham (Championship)
Leeds preview: Calvert-Lewin battling illness
Dominic Calvert-Lewin remains uncertain for Leeds with illness. Pascal Struijk and Anton Stach are also doubts with injury.
Predicted lineup: Darlow (GK); Bornauw, Bijol, Ampadu; Gnonto, Tanaka, Gruev, Byram; Piroe, Nmecha & Okafor
Last five results:
- 10/02/26: Chelsea 2-2 Leeds (Premier League)
- 06/02/26: Leeds 3-1 Nottingham Forest (Premier League)
- 31/01/26: Leeds 0-4 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 26/01/26: Everton 1-1 Leeds (Premier League)
- 17/01/26: Leeds 1-0 Fulham (Premier League)
Player to watch: Noah Okafor
With doubts over Calvert-Lewin, Noah Okafor could lead the line again for Leeds. He has two goals in his last two appearances, including against Chelsea last time out, and so is a player to keep an eye on for Birmingham.