Newly-promoted Tondela journey to the Estadio da Luz to face Benfica in round three of the Portuguese Primeira Liga on Saturday. This will be the first meeting between the two sides since February 2022, when As Aguias secured a 3-1 victory to complete a second consecutive league double over the visitors.
FootballWhispers’ Benfica vs Tondela prediction examines the chances of both teams scooping all three points this weekend.
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Benfica vs Tondela prediction: As Aguias to ease to victory
Key stats
- Benfica are unbeaten in each of their last six matches (5W, 1D) since their 4-1 extra-time defeat against Chelsea in the FIFA Club World Cup round of 16 back in June.
- Tondela have won just two of their most recent seven competitive games while losing four and picking up one draw, having won each of the five matches preceding this run.
- Benfica have opened the scoring in five of their last seven games against Tondela, with a combined 12 goals scored between the two teams in that time.
- Benfica are unbeaten in their last eight Primeira Liga home matches, picking up five wins and three draws since kicking off the year with a 2-1 loss against Braga on January 4.
Correct score prediction: Benfica 3-0 Tondela
Benfica have flown out of the blocks this season, picking up four wins and one draw from their five matches while keeping five clean sheets in that time. Tondela, meanwhile, have struggled to impose themselves in the big leagues and we fancy Bruno Lage’s men to extend their dominance in this fixture.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Benfica clear favourites by the bookies
- HOME: 1/6 (1.17) – 85.7%
- DRAW: 13/2 (7.50) – 13.3%
- AWAY: 14/1 (15.00) – 6.7%
*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
With an 85.7% win probability according to the bookmakers, Benfica are heavy favourites to secure all three points at the Estadio da Luz this weekend.
Tondela will be looking to cause an upset at the Estadio da Luz as they have been given just a 6.7% probability of winning the game, while there is a 13.3% chance of the spoils being shared.
Benfica saw their 100% record in the new campaign come to an end on Wednesday, when they played out a goalless draw with Fenerbahce in the UEFA Champions League qualifiers.
As for Tondela, they were condemned to successive defeats in their opening two games of the new season last weekend when they fell to a 1-0 defeat against Famalicao on home turf.
While we take a closer look at both sides looking to return to winning ways, you can peek at FootballWhispers’ best picks and predictions in today’s free football betting tips.
Most recent H2Hs: Benfica on a dominant run
Benfica boasts a clear upper hand in this fixture over the last 10 meetings, having picked up nine wins and one draw since December 2017.
As Aguias are on a run of four consecutive victories over Tondela and are unbeaten in their last eight clashes (7W, 1D) since a 3-2 defeat in April 2018.
Portugal Primeira Liga 07/02/22
Tondela
Benfica
Portugal Primeira Liga 29/08/21
Benfica
Tondela
Portugal Primeira Liga 30/04/21
Tondela
Benfica
Portugal Primeira Liga 08/01/21
Benfica
Tondela
Portugal Primeira Liga 04/06/20
Benfica
Tondela
Benfica preview: Looking to set early title intent
Benfica held their own to see out a goalless draw against Turkish powerhouse Fenerbahce in the first leg of their Champions League playoff clash at the Sukru Saracoglu Stadium.
Prior to that, Lage’s men kicked off the season with four wins from their opening four matches, including a 1-0 victory over rivals Sporting Lisbon in the Portuguese Super Cup on July 31.
Benfica now turn their attention to the Primeira Liga, where they kicked off their quest for a first title since 2023 with a 1-0 victory over Estrela on August 16 courtesy of a second-half penalty from Vangelis Pavlidis.
As Aguias fell short by just two points in the title race last season when they finished second in the league standings with 80 points from 34 games, only behind champions Sporting Lisbon.
Predicted lineup: Trubin (GK), Dedic, Silva, Otamendi, Dahl, Aursnes, Barrenechea, Rios, Schjelderup, Pavlidis & Ivanovic
Portugal Primeira Liga 10/05/25
D
Sporting
1
Benfica
1
Portugal Primeira Liga 03/05/25
W
Estoril
1
Benfica
2
Portugal Primeira Liga 27/04/25
W
AVS
0
Benfica
6
Portugal Cup 23/04/25
W
FC Tirsense
0
Benfica
4
Portugal Primeira Liga 19/04/25
W
Guimaraes
0
Benfica
3
Tondela preview: Out to cause an upset
Having gained promotion from the Segunda Liga last season, Tondela have endured a difficult return to the Portuguese top flight, losing each of their opening two matches.
Tondela picked up 17 wins and 13 draws from their 34 games in the second tier to finish top of the league table, one point above third-placed Vizela in the promotion playoff spot.
Ivo Vieira’s men were denied a dream return to the Primeira Liga as they suffered a 3-0 defeat against Braga in the season opener on August 10, six days before losing 1-0 versus Famalicao in their first home game of the campaign.
While Tondela will be looking to find their feet this weekend, next up is the stern challenge of going up against an opposing side who are unbeaten in 13 of their previous 14 encounters (12W, 1D) since August 2013.
Predicted lineup: Bernardo (GK), Manso, Afonso, Marques, Maviram, Hodge, Alves, Huarte, Moudjatovic, Miro & Yarlen
Portugal Primeira Liga 16/08/25
L
Famalicao
1
Tondela
0
Portugal Primeira Liga 10/08/25
L
Braga
3
Tondela
0
Club Friendly List 24/07/25
W
Nacional
1
Tondela
2
Portugal Segunda Liga 16/05/25
W
UD Leiria
0
Tondela
2
Portugal Segunda Liga 11/05/25
L
Alverca
2
Tondela
1
Player to watch – Vangelis Pavlidis
Pavlidis enjoyed an impressive debut campaign for Benfica last season and we expect the Greek international to spearhead the home side's attack once again.
Following his move from Dutch outfit AZ Alkmaar, the 26-year-old racked up 19 goals in 34 Primeira Liga matches to finish second in the league’s scoring chart while also finishing with seven assists to his name.
Pavlidis netted Benfica’s only league goal this season, which came on August 16, when he converted a second-half penalty to hand As Aguias a 1-0 victory over Estrela in the league curtain-raiser.