Things are getting tasty in the title race over in Portugal, with third-placed Benfica looking to close the gap on current leaders Porto when the two teams clash this Sunday.
Can the hosts move within four points of the leaders, or will the visitors bag a fourth straight league victory? Read our Benfica vs Porto prediction and preview to find out, but don’t forget to also check out our other Liga Portugal predictions, with latest odds provided by bet365.
Contents
- 1 Benfica vs Porto prediction: Tight game in prospect
- 2 Pre-game odds and win probability: Bookies put their chips on Benfica
- 3 Most recent H2Hs: Mixed results in recent times
- 4 Benfica preview: Title push continues
- 5 Porto preview: Injury worries for the league leaders
- 6 Player to watch: Vangelis Pavlidis (Benfica)
Benfica vs Porto prediction: Tight game in prospect
Key Stats
- Benfica have not endured a single league defeat this season.
- Benfica are looking to earn their fifth straight league victory this weekend.
- FC Porto have the best defensive record in the league, with eight goals conceded.
- FC Porto also have the weakest attack inside of the top four, with just 47 goals scored.
Correct score prediction: Benfica 1-1 Porto
Jose Mourinho has overseen an epic campaign with Benfica, and he is now setting his sights on the league crown.
There are seven points between them and Porto, but that gap could significantly shrink should the hosts prevail at Estadio da Luz.
The big test for Benfica will be trying to score against the best defence in the competition – one that has only shipped eight goals across 24 matches.
Porto are also eyeing up their fourth straight victory, meaning they will be a tough nut to crack when they come up against Benfica.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Bookies put their chips on Benfica
HOME: 11/10 (2.1) – 47.6%
DRAW: 9/4 (3.25) – 30.8%
AWAY: 12/5 (3.40) – 29.4%
*Odds from bet365, subject to change
Looking at those Benfica vs Porto odds, it is clear that the bookmakers are backing Jose Mourinho’s men to take all three points.
If you liked our predictions for this game, remember to also check our betting tips for today.
Most recent H2Hs: Mixed results in recent times
Over the last five head-to-head meetings, Benfica and Porto have managed to secure two wins each.
When these two sides clashed in the cup last January, it was Porto who edged Mourinho’s men by a single goal.
Benfica’s last success in this fixture came last April, winning 4-1 away from home.
Portugal Cup 14/01/26
FC Porto
Benfica
Portugal Primeira Liga 05/10/25
FC Porto
Benfica
Portugal Primeira Liga 06/04/25
FC Porto
Benfica
Portugal Primeira Liga 10/11/24
Benfica
FC Porto
Portugal Primeira Liga 03/03/24
FC Porto
Benfica
Benfica preview: Title push continues
With seven wins from their last eight matches in the league, Benfica have certainly boosted their title chances, though there is still a lot of work to do.
Last weekend’s victory over Gil Vicente leaves Mourinho’s men full of confidence as they prepare for Sunday’s massive encounter.
Ahead of the match, the hosts are still waiting to know whether Fredrik Aursnes will be available after picking up a knock last weekend.
Georgiy Sudakov is also a doubt, while Joao Veloso continues to nurse a shoulder injury.
Predicted lineup: Trubin (GK), Dedic, A Silva, Otamendi, Dahl, Rios, Barreiro, Prestianni, R Silva, Schjelderup & Pavlidis
Last five matches
02/03/26: Gil Vicente 1-2 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
25/02/26: Real Madrid 2-1 Benfica (UEFA Champions League)
21/02/26: Benfica 3-0 AVS Futebol SAD (Primeira Liga)
17/02/26: Benfica 0-1 Real Madrid (UEFA Champions League)
13/02/26: Santa Clara 1-2 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
Porto preview: Injury worries for the league leaders
Porto endured a 1-0 cup defeat to Sporting Lisbon last Tuesday night, marking their second loss in all competitions since the start of December.
Despite that slip-up, Porto remain on a three-match winning run in the league, and they will be determined to continue that trend against their arch rivals.
When it comes to team news, Samu Omorodion and Luuk de Jong are both out for the season with knee injuries.
Nehuen Perez is a long-term absentee, while Jan Bednarek is a doubt after picking up a knock on Tuesday night.
Thiago Silva has been out of action for the last three games, but might get some action on Sunday after recovering from his recent injury.
Predicted lineup: D Costa (GK), A Costa, Rosario, Kiwior, Zaidu, Froholdt, Varela, Veiga, Pepe, Gul & Pietuszewski
Last five matches
03/03/26: Sporting CP 1-0 FC Porto (Taça de Portugal)
27/02/26: FC Porto 3-1 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
22/02/26: FC Porto 1-0 Rio Ave (Primeira Liga)
15/02/26: Nacional 0-1 FC Porto (Primeira Liga)
09/02/26: FC Porto 1-1 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
Player to watch: Vangelis Pavlidis (Benfica)
Vangelis Pavlidis has been excellent for Benfica this season, scoring 20 league goals so far and even chipping in with four assists.
The Greek striker has endured a four-match drought, but we are not expecting his dry spell to last for long. The 27-year-old will be determined to show his class in Portugal's biggest fixture and he certainly is the man to watch.