The unofficial ‘ex-Chelsea boss derby’ will take place on Wednesday as Jose Mourinho’s Benfica welcome Antonio Conte’s Napoli to Estadio da Luz for matchday six of the Champions League league phase.
The Portuguese outfit moved to 30th in the 36-team table after picking up their first win of the campaign against Ajax and will be looking for consistency to stand a chance of clinching a playoff spot.
Meanwhile, the Italian visitors aim to get into a safer position after registering their second victory of the league phase season against Qarabag to sit 20th in the standings.
Our Benfica vs Napoli prediction provides clear insight, while the rest of our Champions League tips remain available for review.
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Benfica vs Napoli prediction: Frantic atmosphere anticipated in Da Luz
Key stats:
- Over 3.5 cards have been shown in each of the last three of Napoli’s games in the Champions League.
- Benfica have scored exactly two goals in four of their last five outings.
- Napoli have lost five of their last seven away games across all competitions (W2).
- Both teams have scored in four of the previous five head-to-head encounters.
Correct score prediction: Benfica 2-1 Napoli
Both sides are coming off big games over the weekend, with Benfica playing a 1-1 draw against city rivals Sporting Lisbon in the Derby de Lisboa, while the Perenopei emerged 2-1 winners over Juventus.
This one looks tricky to call given the imbalance in patterns. Napoli have been poor on the road, losing each of their last four in the Champions League, while the Eagles have not been convincing at home with no wins in their last three across all competitions.
Nonetheless, the hosts are tipped to edge the contest, knowing any slip-up here would make an already slim possibility of clinching a playoff spot more difficult.
Entering the encounter with fresher legs also adds to Benfica’s advantage, having played their last game two days earlier than their visitors.
Pre-match analysis: Clear but modest advantage for the hosts
- HOME: 13/10 (2.30) – 43.5%
- DRAW: 9/4 (3.25) – 30.8%
- AWAY: 21/10 (3.10) – 32.3%
*Odds courtesy of Ladbrokes; subject to change*
Not the widest of margins, but the hosts hold a noticeable advantage in this context according to the above odds.
Benfica are priced at a win probability of 43.5%, while Napoli’s likelihood of victory stands at 32.3%. A 30.8% chance of a stalemate reflects just how tight the game could be.
Meanwhile, our hot tip – home win or draw and under 3.5 – offers excellent value at 1.80 odds.
Most recent H2H: First meeting in almost a decade
The most recent encounter came around this time in 2016, when Napoli emerged 2-1 winners in the second leg of their group stage meeting in the Champions League.
The Italian outfit have won three of the previous four competitive meetings between the sides, while Wednesday’s clash presents Benfica an opportunity to secure their second triumph in this fixture.
Benfica preview: No fresh injury concerns
Benfica have no fresh injury concerns, though Alexander Bah (cruciate ligament tear), Bruma (Achilles), Dodi Lukebakio (ankle) and Henrique Araujo (muscle) would continue their spell on the sideline.
Captain Nicolas Otamendi is one booking away from suspension, so he is treading a fine line in this encounter.
Predicted XI: Trubin (GK), Dahl, Otamendi, A Silva, Dedic, Rios, Barrenechea, Aursnes, Barreiro, Sudakov & Pavlidis
Benfica’s last five results:
- 05/12/25: Benfica 1-1 Sporting (D)
- 29/11/25: Nacional 1-2 Benfica (W)
- 25/11/25: Ajax 0-2 Benfica (W)
- 21/11/25: Atletico CP 0-2 Benfica (W)
- 09/11/25: Benfica 2-2 Casa Pia (D)
Napoli preview: A host of absentees
Napoli are battling injury problems with no fewer than seven players expected to miss Wednesday’s clash; Romelu Lukaku, Alex Meret and Miguel Gutierrez are working their way back to fitness.
Conte remains with many gaps to plug in midfield, as Stanislav Lobotka, Kevin De Bruyne, Frank Anguissa and Billy Gilmour are all sidelined once again.
Predicted XI: Milinkovic-Savic (GK), Beukema, Rrahmani, Buongiorno, Di Lorenzo, Elmas, McTominay, Olivera, Neres, Lang & Hojlund
Napoli’s last five results:
- 07/12/25: Napoli 2-1 Juventus (W)
- 03/12/25: Napoli 2-1 Cagliari (W)
- 30/11/25: AS Roma 0-1 Napoli (W)
- 25/11/25: Napoli 2-0 Qarabag (W)
- 22/11/25: Napoli 3-1 Atalanta (W)
Player to watch: David Neres
David Neres featured 83 times across all competitions for Benfica before moving to Napoli in the summer of 2024, and all eyes will be on the Brazilian attacker to see how he performs against his former club.