Barcelona will hope to overturn a four-goal deficit when they take on Atletico Madrid in the second leg of their Copa del Rey semi-final tie at Spotify Camp Nou on Tuesday, 3 March 2026.
View our free Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid predictions below.
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Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid predictions: Goals expected
Key stats
- At least four goals were scored in four of Barcelona's last five clashes with Atletico Madrid.
- Barcelona suffered a 4-0 defeat in the first leg of this tie.
- Five of the last six H2Hs produced at least 11 corners.
Correct score prediction: Barcelona 3-2 Atletico Madrid
Barcelona have had a near-perfect record at home across all competitions this season, winning 18 of 19 home games. The Blaugrana have prevailed in 15 consecutive matches at Spotify Camp Nou, scoring at least three goals in each of their last seven.
Atletico Madrid, on the other hand, have managed only two wins in their last six away games. Despite winning the first leg of this tie by four unanswered goals, it is worth mentioning that Diego Simeone's men have lost eight of the last 11 clashes between these sides.
All things considered, Barcelona should do enough to win, but not enough to advance to the Copa del Rey final.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Atletico up against it
- HOME: 8/15 (1.53) – 65.2%
- DRAW: 15/4 (4.75) – 21.1%
- AWAY: 15/4 (4.75) – 21.1%
*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Barcelona cruised to a comfortable 4-1 victory over Villarreal at the weekend. Hansi Flick's men will turn their attention to the Copa del Rey, where they need to overturn a massive deficit in order to reach the final.
Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, defeated Real Oviedo on the road last weekend. They have now won three games in a row and are unbeaten in their last four matches.
Ahead of this skirmish, Barcelona are the expected winners at 8/15 (1.53). Teams with these odds generally have a 65.2% probability of winning.
Don’t forget to check out more of our best betting tips and predictions after you’ve dissected our Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid predictions.
Also, bearing in mind that there were at least 11 corners in five of the last six meetings between these sides, over 10.5 total corners has an appealing look at 3/4 (1.75). That one has a 57.1% chance of landing.
Most recent H2Hs: Barcelona have bragging rights
Although Atletico Madrid won the first leg of this tie, they have lost three of the last four H2Hs. In fact, Atleti’s victory last month was their first win against Barcelona in the Copa del Rey since April 2000.
Spain La Liga 02/12/25
Barcelona
Atletico Madrid
Spain Copa del Rey 02/04/25
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
Spain La Liga 16/03/25
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
Spain Copa del Rey 25/02/25
Barcelona
Atletico Madrid
Spain La Liga 21/12/24
Barcelona
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona preview: Few absences
Barcelona are expected to be without Andreas Christensen and Frenkie de Jong for this crucial Copa del Rey clash, as both players are ruled out with injuries.
The reigning champions will also be without Eric Garcia following the defender’s late sending off during the first leg at Riyadh Air Metropolitano.
Gerard Martin will almost certainly come in for the suspended Garcia to pair up with Pau Cubarsi in central defence. The returning Pedri Gonzalez should feature alongside Marc Casado in a double pivot, while Lamine Yamal, Raphinha, and probably Ferran Torres line up in the final third.
Predicted lineup: J. Garcia (GK), Kounde, Cubarsi, Martin, Balde, Pedri, Casado, Lopez, Yamal, Torres & Raphinha
Last five matches
- 28/02/26: Barcelona 4-1 Villarreal (La Liga)
- 22/02/26: Barcelona 3-0 Levante (La Liga)
- 16/02/26: Girona 2-1 Barcelona (La Liga)
- 12/02/26: Atletico Madrid 4-0 Barcelona (Copa del Rey)
- 07/02/26: Barcelona 3-0 Mallorca (La Liga)
Atletico Madrid preview: Clean bill of health
Unlike their opponents, Atletico Madrid have no new injury concerns ahead of this skirmish.
Although Pablo Barrios and Nico Gonzalez were unavailable against Real Oviedo on Saturday due to fitness issues, both players are expected to be back for this game. This means, unless there's a new injury during training, Simeone should have a fully-fit squad for Tuesday's blockbuster.
Juan Musso has featured in goal for Los Colchoneros so far in this competition, and the goalkeeper is expected to continue between the sticks here, even as Simeone will likely retain the exact starting XI from the first leg with Antoine Griezmann and Julian Alvarez playing up front.
Predicted lineup: Musso (GK), Molina, Pubill, Hancko, Ruggeri, Simeone, Llorente, Koke, Lookman, Griezmann & Alvarez
Last five matches
- 28/02/26: Real Oviedo 0-1 Atletico Madrid (La Liga)
- 24/02/26: Atletico Madrid 4-1 Club Brugge (Champions League)
- 21/02/26: Atletico Madrid 4-2 Espanyol (La Liga)
- 18/02/26: Club Brugge 3-3 Atletico Madrid (Champions League)
- 15/02/26: Rayo Vallecano 3-0 Atletico Madrid (La Liga)
Player to watch: Ademola Lookman
Ademola Lookman put in an impressive performance in the first leg of this tie, scoring once and providing an assist in Atletico Madrid's 4-0 victory. The former Atalanta player, who has four goal contributions in two Copa del Rey assignments this season, will be called upon to provide goals on Tuesday night.