Valencia are bidding to continue their revival under Carlos Corberan this weekend. Our Valencia vs Atletico Madrid prediction and La Liga betting tips consider whether they can upset Diego Simeone’s title-chasing side.
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Valencia vs Atletico Madrid prediction: Low-scoring draw at Mestalla
Key stats
- Our Valencia vs Atletico Madrid betting tips take into account that Los Che have only lost one of their last six games in La Liga.
- There have been dropped points for Atleti in four of their last five league games.
- Valencia are averaging 6.58 corners per home game in La Liga, while Atletico average just 3.91 per game on their travels.
Correct score prediction: Valencia 1-1 Atletico Madrid
This promises to be a tight game, with Valencia enjoying something of a honeymoon period under Corberan, with their results much improved overall.
The energy of the Mestalla crowd is also playing a role and this could be an awkward game for the visitors who have started to drop a few points, in a major blow to their title prospects.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Atleti the odds-on favourites
- HOME: 10/3 (4.33) – 23.1%
- DRAW: 23/10 (3.30) – 30.3%
- AWAY: 10/11 (1.91) – 52.4%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
The visitors are the favourites according to the Valencia vs Atletico Madrid odds, with an implied probability of 52.4% that they win this match.
They head into this game after a 1-1 home draw against Celta Vigo, a reasonable outcome in the end given they had Pablo Barrios sent off in just the seventh minute.
As for Valencia, they drew 1-1 in the derby at Villarreal last time out, with January signing Umar Sadiq netting a late equaliser.
For more from the upcoming matches in Europe, today’s free football betting tips look at some of the best picks.
Most recent H2Hs: Three draws in six at Mestalla
Our Valencia vs Atletico Madrid prediction suggests we could see a fourth draw in the space of seven meetings at Mestalla.
Los Che stunned Atleti with a 3-0 win in this fixture last season, but Los Rojiblancos have won five of the last six meetings overall.
Spain La Liga 15/09/24
Atletico Madrid
Valencia
Spain La Liga 28/01/24
Atletico Madrid
Valencia
Spain La Liga 16/09/23
Valencia
Atletico Madrid
Spain La Liga 18/03/23
Atletico Madrid
Valencia
Spain La Liga 29/08/22
Valencia
Atletico Madrid
Valencia preview: Correia the only absentee
The home team should have a full squad available, with the exception of right-back Thierry Correia who is out long-term with an ACL tear.
Predicted Lineup: Mamardashvili (GK), Gaya, Tarrega, Mosquera, Diakhaby, Rioja, Guerra, Barrenechea, Almeida, Sadiq & D. Lopez
Spain La Liga 11/04/25 W Sevilla 0 Valencia 1 Spain La Liga 05/04/25 W Real Madrid 1 Valencia 2 Spain La Liga 30/03/25 W Mallorca 0 Valencia 1 Spain La Liga 15/03/25 D Girona 1 Valencia 1 Spain La Liga 08/03/25 W Valladolid 1 Valencia 2
Atletico Madrid preview: Midfield problems for the visitors
Simeone will have to cope without the suspended Barrios and the injured Koke in the middle of the park here. Conor Gallagher could potentially come into the side in a central role as a result.
Predicted Lineup: Oblak (GK), Galan, Le Normand, Gimenez, Llorente, Lino, Gallagher, De Paul, Simeone, Griezmann & Alvarez
Spain La Liga 14/04/25 W Valladolid 2 Atletico Madrid 4 Spain La Liga 06/04/25 W Sevilla 1 Atletico Madrid 2 Spain Copa del Rey 02/04/25 L Barcelona 1 Atletico Madrid 0 Spain La Liga 29/03/25 D Espanyol 1 Atletico Madrid 1 Spain La Liga 16/03/25 L Barcelona 4 Atletico Madrid 2 
Player to watch – Antoine Griezmann
The visitors will be looking to Antoine Griezmann to provide the attacking spark that could prove the difference here. The Frenchman has eight goals and four assists in 24 appearances in La Liga this term.
Griezmann striking after the break
88% of the experienced forward’s goals in the league have come after the interval. That includes two goals in stoppage time at the end of the second half.