There’s a Madrid derby at the Estadio Metropolitano this Thursday. Our Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano prediction and La Liga betting tips consider whether Los Rojiblancos can bounce back from weekend disappointment.
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Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano prediction: Alvarez to strike and hosts to win by one
Key stats
- Our Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano betting tips take into account that the visitors have suffered a dip in form, with only one win and six points from their last eight games.
- 75% of Atletico Madrid home games in the league have ended with under 3.5 goals.
- 94% of Rayo’s away games in La Liga have served up under 3.5 goals.
Correct score prediction: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano
Atleti no longer look to be in serious title contention, so it may be slightly difficult for them to keep their intensity levels high over the remaining few weeks of the season.
That offers Rayo some hope here, but Inigo Perez’s side have struggled of late, and with Atleti at full strength, a home victory does still look likely.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Simeone’s side the odds-on favourites
- HOME: 8/15 (1.53) – 65.2%
- DRAW: 3/1 (4.00) – 25.0%
- AWAY: 5/1 (6.00) – 16.7%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
The hosts are the favourites according to the Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano odds, with an implied probability of 65.2% that they win this match.
They head into this following a late 1-0 defeat at Las Palmas, with a 93rd minute goal a hammer blow to their already slim title hopes.
As for Rayo, they could only draw 1-1 at home to Valencia on Saturday, but remain in the hunt for one of the lesser European places.
For more from the upcoming action in Europe, today’s football betting tips look at some of the best picks.
Most recent H2Hs: Atleti dominant at home
Our Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano prediction suggests that Los Rojiblancos can build on a strong recent run of home results against this opposition, with 10 of the last 11 meetings in their stadium going their way.
Atleti have also won nine of the last 11 meetings overall, with very little in the H2H record to offer hope to the visitors here.
Spain La Liga 22/09/24
Rayo Vallecano
Atletico Madrid
Spain La Liga 31/01/24
Atletico Madrid
Rayo Vallecano
Spain La Liga 28/08/23
Rayo Vallecano
Atletico Madrid
Spain La Liga 09/04/23
Rayo Vallecano
Atletico Madrid
Spain La Liga 18/10/22
Atletico Madrid
Rayo Vallecano
Atletico Madrid preview: Host at full strength
Atleti’s demise over the past couple of months has come despite few injury problems. They should have a full squad available here.
Predicted Lineup: Oblak (GK), Azpilicueta, Gimenez, Le Normand, Llorente, Lino, Barrios, De Paul, Simeone, Alvarez & Sorloth
Spain La Liga 10/05/25
W Real Sociedad 0 Atletico Madrid 4 Spain La Liga 03/05/25
D CD Alaves 0 Atletico Madrid 0 Spain La Liga 24/04/25
W Rayo Vallecano 0 Atletico Madrid 3 Spain La Liga 19/04/25
L Las Palmas 1 Atletico Madrid 0 Spain La Liga 14/04/25
W Valladolid 2 Atletico Madrid 4
Rayo Vallecano preview: No fresh issues for Perez
There are no new problems for Perez, but the Rayo boss won’t be able to count on the injured Abdul Mumin again this term, while striker Sergio Camello remains a doubt.
Predicted Lineup: Batalla (GK), Chavarria, Ciss, Lejeune, Ratiu, Gumbau, Diaz, A. Garcia, U. Lopez, De Frutos & Nteka
Spain La Liga 09/05/25
W Las Palmas 0 Rayo Vallecano 1 Spain La Liga 02/05/25
W Getafe 0 Rayo Vallecano 1 Spain La Liga 24/04/25
L Atletico Madrid 3 Rayo Vallecano 0 Spain La Liga 19/04/25
D Valencia 1 Rayo Vallecano 1 Spain La Liga 13/04/25
L Athletic Bilbao 3 Rayo Vallecano 1 
Player to watch – Julian Alvarez
While Alexander Sorloth and Antoine Griezmann are currently fighting for one place, there is little doubt that Julian Alvarez is now Atleti’s main man up top. The Argentine has scored three in his last three games to move onto 14 goals in La Liga this term.
Alvarez scoring early in the league
57% of the 25-year-old’s goals this season in La Liga have come before the interval. He has opened the scoring in the opening 15 minutes on two occasions, including a first minute goal at Real Sociedad.