Alaves are gunning for three points in their fight for survival in the Spanish top flight. Our Alaves vs Atletico Madrid prediction and La Liga betting tips consider whether they can surprise Diego Simeone’s side on Saturday.
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Alaves vs Atletico Madrid prediction: Alaves to win the corner count and the game
Key stats
- Our Alaves vs Atletico Madrid betting tips take into account that the visitors have only won three of their last seven matches in La Liga, losing three.
- Alaves have avoided defeat in six of their last eight matches.
- They average 5.81 corners per home game in La Liga, compared to Atleti’s 3.81 away.
Correct score prediction: Alaves 1-0 Atletico Madrid
Atleti were really poor in their most recent away match at Las Palmas, losing that game 1-0 against a relegation-threatened team, and a repeat is possible here, with Simeone’s men no longer seriously competing for anything.
They face an organised Alaves side that has been playing quite well and the hosts will take real confidence from good results in their last two matches, as well as a strong recent record at home to this opposition.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Bookies favour the visitors
- HOME: 27/10 (3.70) – 27.0%
- DRAW: 21/10 (3.10) – 32.3%
- AWAY: 11/10 (2.10) – 47.6%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
The visitors are the favourites according to the Alaves vs Atletico Madrid odds, with an implied probability of 47.6% that they win this match.
They played well in their last match, beating Rayo Vallecano 3-0 at home with Alexander Sorloth, Julian Alvarez and Conor Gallagher on target.
For more from the upcoming matches in Europe, today’s football betting tips look at some of the best picks.
Most recent H2Hs: Home advantage the key
Our Alaves vs Atletico Madrid prediction suggests this match could follow the recent trend which has seen all of the last six meetings between the clubs won by the team playing at home.
Atleti have been beaten to nil on each of their last two trips to Vitoria, in 2021 and 2024.
Spain La Liga 23/11/24
Atletico Madrid
CD Alaves
Spain La Liga 21/04/24
CD Alaves
Atletico Madrid
Spain La Liga 29/10/23
Atletico Madrid
CD Alaves
Spain La Liga 02/04/22
Atletico Madrid
CD Alaves
Spain La Liga 25/09/21
CD Alaves
Atletico Madrid
Alaves preview: Abqar still sidelined
The main absentee for the hosts is still the injured Abdel Abqar. They also have a doubt over midfielder Joan Jordan.
Predicted Lineup: Sivera (GK), Sanchez, Mourino, Garces, Tenaglia, Blanco, Guevara, Guridi, Alena, K. Garcia & Vicente
Spain La Liga 11/05/25 L Athletic Bilbao 1 CD Alaves 0 Spain La Liga 03/05/25 D Atletico Madrid 0 CD Alaves 0 Spain La Liga 23/04/25 W Real Sociedad 0 CD Alaves 1 Spain La Liga 20/04/25 D Sevilla 1 CD Alaves 1 Spain La Liga 13/04/25 L Real Madrid 1 CD Alaves 0
Atletico Madrid preview: Few issues for Simeone
The visitors should be at full strength here, and Simeone must decide whether to recall Antoine Griezmann, or stick with Alvarez and Sorloth up top.
Predicted Lineup: Oblak (GK), Galan, Lenglet, Le Normand, Llorente, Gallagher, Barrios, De Paul, Simeone, Alvarez & Sorloth
Spain La Liga 10/05/25 W Real Sociedad 0 Atletico Madrid 4 Spain La Liga 03/05/25 D CD Alaves 0 Atletico Madrid 0 Spain La Liga 24/04/25 W Rayo Vallecano 0 Atletico Madrid 3 Spain La Liga 19/04/25 L Las Palmas 1 Atletico Madrid 0 Spain La Liga 14/04/25 W Valladolid 2 Atletico Madrid 4 
Player to watch – Kike Garcia
Key to the home team’s chances will be the goal threat of Kike Garcia. The experienced striker has scored 12 in 31 appearances in La Liga this term.
Kike dominant in the air
Of all the players who could potentially feature in this fixture, none can better the 35-year-old’s average of 3.2 aerial challenges won per game in La Liga this term.