Athletic look to seal their place in the Champions League knockout playoffs as they welcome Sporting Lisbon to San Mames for the final fixture of the league phase.
The Spanish hosts sit 23rd in the 36-team table, clinging to a qualification spot by virtue of a superior goal difference over Napoli and Copenhagen in 25th and 26th, respectively, while the Portuguese visitors are 10th and will fancy their chances of finishing in the automatic qualification places.
Our Athletic Bilbao vs Sporting Lisbon prediction provides a clear outlook on the contest, with additional Champions League betting tips also included.
Contents
- 1 Athletic Bilbao vs Sporting Lisbon prediction: Hosts to make home advantage count?
- 2 Pre-match odds and win probability: Hosts have the edge
- 3 Most recent H2H: Home win trend to continue?
- 4 Athletic preview: Key midfielder suspended
- 5 Sporting preview: Attacker ineligible amid several absentees
- 6 Player to watch: Gorka Guruzeta
Athletic Bilbao vs Sporting Lisbon prediction: Hosts to make home advantage count?
Key stats:
- Six of Sporting’s seven Champions League games this season have been won by the home team on the day.
- Athletic have recorded victories in both of their previous home meetings with Sporting.
- Sporting have both scored and conceded in each of their last competitive away matches.
- Both teams have scored in each of Bilbao’s last four outings, all of which ended with over 2.5 goals.
Correct score prediction: Bilbao 2–1 Sporting
Bilbao have struggled for consistency in recent weeks, with a 2–1 league defeat at Sevilla over the weekend further highlighting those issues. However, the Basque club will look to build on the momentum gained from their previous Champions League outing after securing a thrilling 3–2 victory away at Atalanta.
Knowing that a slip-up on Wednesday could put their qualification hopes at risk, the Basque outfit are expected to go for broke, backed by their home support. That said, the encounter is unlikely to be straightforward against an in-form Sporting side who have won each of their last three matches.
However, the Lisbon outfit have historically struggled on visits to Spanish opposition, losing 10 of their 14 such trips in UEFA competition (D4). That trend could continue here against a Bilbao side who have won seven of their last 10 home games in European competition (D2, L1).
Pre-match odds and win probability: Hosts have the edge
- HOME: 6/5 (2.20) – 45.5%
- DRAW: 5/2 (3.50) – 28.6%
- AWAY: 21/10 (3.10) – 32.3%
*Odds courtesy of Ladbrokes and subject to change.
While the margins are not significant, Athletic head into this clash as favourites, reflected by their 45.5% win probability. Sporting’s chances of taking maximum points stand at 32.3%, with the draw priced at 28.6%.
Our hot tip — both teams to score and over 2.5 goals — offers solid value at 11/10 (2.10).
Most recent H2H: Home win trend to continue?
The home side on the day has won all four previous competitive head-to-head meetings between these teams, with two victories apiece. The most recent clash came in the Europa League in 2012, when Sporting secured a 2–1 home win before losing the return leg 3–1 in Bilbao.
Europe Friendlies 27/07/24
Sporting
Athletic Bilbao
Athletic preview: Key midfielder suspended
Midfielder Mikel Jauregizar Alboniga will play no part on Wednesday as he serves a suspension after picking up his third booking of the league phase on matchday seven.
Meanwhile, Inaki Williams, Benat Prados, Unai Egiluz and Aymeric Laporte all remain sidelined through injury.
Predicted XI: Simon (GK), Areso, Vivian, Paredes, Berchiche, Vesga, Galarreta, Navarro, Sancet, Williams & Guruzeta
Bilbao’s last five results:
- 24/01/26: Sevilla 2–1 Bilbao (L)
- 21/01/26: Atalanta 2–3 Bilbao (W)
- 17/01/26: Mallorca 3–2 Bilbao (L)
- 13/01/26: Cultural Leonesa 3–4 Bilbao (W)
- 07/01/26: Barcelona 5–0 Bilbao (L)
Sporting preview: Attacker ineligible amid several absentees
Sporting will remain without Eduardo Quaresma, Nuno Santos, Fotis Ioannidis and Geovany Quenda due to injury, while January signing Luis Guilherme is ineligible to feature in the league phase.
Predicted XI: Silva (GK), Fresneda, Inacio, Reis, Mangas, Simoes, Hjulmand, Catamo, Trincao, Araujo & Suarez
Sporting’s last five results:
- 24/01/26: Arouca 1–2 Sporting (W)
- 20/01/26: Sporting 2–1 PSG (W)
- 16/01/26: Sporting 3–0 Casa Pia (W)
- 06/01/26: Sporting 1–2 Vitoria Guimaraes (L)
- 02/01/26: Gil Vicente 1–1 Sporting (D)
Player to watch: Gorka Guruzeta
Gorka Guruzeta missed last weekend’s league defeat to Sevilla through suspension but returns to the squad for Wednesday’s clash. The Spanish forward will be looking to build on his strong continental form, having scored four goals in his last five Champions League appearances for Athletic.