All eyes will be on San Mames when two Basque teams battle for a place in the Copa del Rey final on Wednesday, 11 February 2026.
View our free Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad predictions below.
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Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad predictions: Goals at both ends
Key stats
- Both teams were on the scoresheet in each of Athletic Bilbao's last eight matches.
- Real Sociedad's last 11 games across all competitions produced goals at both ends.
- Sociedad are currently on a 10-match unbeaten run.
Correct score prediction: Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Real Sociedad
It is important to note that these teams clashed at this stadium just over a week ago, and they played out a 1-1 draw.
Although Real Sociedad have no losses in their last 10 games, they have also not beaten Athletic Bilbao at San Mames in over five years.
Keeping in mind that the spoils were shared in two of the last three encounters between these sides, we believe that the first leg of this tie will end in a stalemate.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Sociedad up against it
- HOME: 23/20 (2.15) – 46.5%
- DRAW: 23/10 (3.30) – 30.3%
- AWAY: 9/4 (3.25) – 30.8%
*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Athletic Bilbao’s fortunes have improved over the past week, as they have won back-to-back games after going on a three-match winless run.
Ernesto Valverde's men eliminated Valencia, Cultural Leonesa, and Ourense in the previous rounds of the Copa del Rey en route to the semifinal.
On the other hand, Real Sociedad have beaten Alaves, Osasuna, Eldense, Reus Reddis, and Negreira in the Copa del Rey. They will go on the road for the sixth consecutive time in this competition.
As things stand, Athletic Bilbao are unbeaten in three games, while Real Sociedad have no losses in their last 10 matches.
With that in mind, Athletic Bilbao are the expected winners at 23/20 (2.15). Teams with these odds generally have a 46.5% probability of winning.
Don’t forget to check out more of our best betting tips and predictions after you’ve dissected our Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad predictions.
Keeping in mind that both teams found the net in Athletic Bilbao's last eight matches and Real Sociedad's last 11 games, BTTS – Yes has an appealing look at 19/20 (1.95). That one has a 51.3% chance of landing.
Most recent H2Hs: Evenly contested
In the last six clashes between Athletic Bilbao and Real Sociedad, both teams have two wins apiece with two draws between them.
Interestingly, the last Copa del Rey encounter between these sides was the 2019/20 final, and Real Sociedad won by a single goal. Although Sociedad have not advanced to the final of this competition since then, Athletic Bilbao have been to the final thrice in the last six seasons, winning the 2023/24 title.
Spain La Liga 01/02/26
Athletic Bilbao
Real Sociedad
Spain La Liga 01/11/25
Real Sociedad
Athletic Bilbao
Spain La Liga 04/05/25
Real Sociedad
Athletic Bilbao
Spain La Liga 24/11/24
Athletic Bilbao
Real Sociedad
Spain La Liga 13/01/24
Athletic Bilbao
Real Sociedad
Athletic Bilbao preview: Fair few absences
There is still a lot on the table for Athletic Bilbao on the injury front ahead of this crucial Basque derby in the Copa del Rey. While Unai Eguiluz is expected to return next month from a terrible cruciate ligament tear, Benat Prados is ruled out for the season with a similar injury.
Maroan Sannadi (knee) and Oihan Sancet (hamstring) are also unavailable for the hosts, while Daniel Vivian and Yuri Berchiche will need a final assessment to confirm their status for Wednesday.
Predicted lineup: Simon (GK), Gorosabel, Paredes, Laporte, Boiro, De Galarreta, Jauregizar, Serrano, Guruzeta, N. Williams & I. Williams.
Last five matches
- Athletic Bilbao 4-2 Levante
- Valencia 1-2 Athletic Bilbao
- Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Real Sociedad
- Athletic Bilbao 2-3 Sporting
- Sevilla 2-1 Athletic Bilbao
Real Sociedad preview: Plagued by injuries
Similarly for Real Sociedad, the injury gods have tightened their grip on the squad, with as many as seven first-team players nursing various health challenges.
Takefusa Kubo, Orri Oskarsson, Ander Barrenetxea, Unai Marrero, Wesley, Arsen Zakharyan, and Luka Sucic are all ruled out of this crucial Copa del Rey encounter.
Predicted lineup: Remiro (GK), Gomez, Caleta-Car, Zubeldia, Aramburu, Marin, Soler, Gorrotxategi, Guedes, Oyarzabal & Mendes.
Last five matches
- Real Sociedad 3-1 Elche
- Alaves 2-3 Real Sociedad
- Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Real Sociedad
- Real Sociedad 3-1 Celta Vigo
- Real Sociedad 2-1 Barcelona
Player to watch: Mikel Oyarzabal
Mikel Oyarzabal has been in sensational form, scoring five goals in his last five appearances across all competitions. The 28-year-old found the net in his last two appearances and will look to extend his scoring run to three games.