Real Madrid are bidding to bounce back from European disappointment on Sunday at the Bernabeu. Our Real Madrid vs Athletic Club prediction and La Liga betting tips consider whether they’ll be able to pick up all three points here.
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Real Madrid vs Athletic Club prediction: Los Blancos to win by one
Key stats
- Our Real Madrid vs Athletic Club betting tips take into account that both teams have scored in five of the last six La Liga matches involving Carlo Ancelotti’s side.
- Athletic haven’t lost any of their 31 league games this season by more than a single goal.
- Three of their four defeats have come against top-three opposition.
Correct score prediction: Real Madrid 2-1 Athletic Club
Real Madrid have not been playing well for a number of weeks now, and on that level, their European exit in midweek was no surprise.
This is a tough game against a strong Athletic side, but with the visitors likely to rest some players as they continue to prioritise the Europa League, Ancelotti’s men look capable of recording a fifth one-goal win in six league matches.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Madrid the odds-on favourites
- HOME: 4/6 (1.67) – 60.0%
- DRAW: 29/10 (3.90) – 25.6%
- AWAY: 18/5 (4.60) – 21.7%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
The hosts are the favourites according to the Real Madrid vs Athletic Club odds, with an implied probability of 60.0% that they win this match.
They never really threatened to mount one of their famous comebacks in the Champions League in midweek, with Arsenal worthy 5-1 aggregate winners in their quarter-final clash.
As for Athletic, they saw off Rangers 2-0 at home in the Europa League on Thursday, to seal progress into the last four of that competition.
For more from the upcoming matches around Europe, today’s free football tips look at some of the best picks.
Most recent H2Hs: Low-scoring contests the norm
Our Real Madrid vs Athletic Club prediction suggests both teams will score in this match, as was the case when the clubs met in Bilbao in December when Athletic won 2-1.
However, all of the previous five meetings had served up two or fewer goals, with Athletic normally competitive against the defending Spanish champions.
Spain La Liga 04/12/24
Athletic Bilbao
Real Madrid
Spain La Liga 31/03/24
Real Madrid
Athletic Bilbao
Spain La Liga 12/08/23
Athletic Bilbao
Real Madrid
Spain La Liga 04/06/23
Real Madrid
Athletic Bilbao
Spain La Liga 22/01/23
Athletic Bilbao
Real Madrid
Real Madrid preview: Mbappe absent for the hosts
Kylian Mbappe is the big absentee for Real Madrid, with the Frenchman suspended as well as injured. Ferland Mendy remains a doubt, while Eder Militao and Dani Carvajal continue their recoveries from serious injuries.
Predicted Lineup: Courtois (GK), F. Garcia, Rudiger, Asencio, Valverde, Tchouameni, Camavinga, Ceballos, Bellingham, Rodrygo & Vinicius
Spain La Liga 11/05/25
L Barcelona 4 Real Madrid 3 Spain La Liga 04/05/25
W Celta Vigo 2 Real Madrid 3 Spain Copa del Rey 26/04/25
L Barcelona 3 Real Madrid 2 Spain La Liga 23/04/25
W Getafe 0 Real Madrid 1 Spain La Liga 20/04/25
W Athletic Bilbao 0 Real Madrid 1
Athletic Club preview: Valverde to rotate again?
We saw a lot of rotation from Ernesto Valverde last weekend, and a repeat is possible here, with another league match to come in midweek. The Athletic boss should have a full squad to pick from.
Predicted Lineup: Simon (GK), Yuri, Paredes, Vivian, Gorosabel, Prados, Ruiz de Galarreta, Berenguer, U. Gomez, I. Williams & Guruzeta
Spain La Liga 11/05/25
W CD Alaves 0 Athletic Bilbao 1 UEFA Europa League 08/05/25
L Man Utd 4 Athletic Bilbao 1 Spain La Liga 04/05/25
D Real Sociedad 0 Athletic Bilbao 0 UEFA Europa League 01/05/25
L Man Utd 3 Athletic Bilbao 0 Spain La Liga 23/04/25
W Las Palmas 0 Athletic Bilbao 1
Player to watch – Vinicius Junior
With Mbappe sidelined, this is a good opportunity for Vinicius Junior to take on a bit more responsibility and be the side’s main goal threat again. He has registered 11 goals in 26 appearances in La Liga this term.
Vinicius striking after the break
The Brazilian has been far more impactful in the second half of matches this season than the first. A huge 86% of his goals in all competitions have come after the interval.