Algeria vs Burkina Faso prediction, odds & betting tips – 28/12/2025

Algeria take on Burkina Faso at Stade Prince Moulay Hassan on Sunday, with both teams looking to take charge of Group E at the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations.

With both sides aware that one more positive result would all but confirm a place in the knockout rounds, pragmatism could outweigh ambition in what promises to be a finely judged contest.

After reviewing our Algeria vs Burkina Faso prediction, check out other betting predictions for today.

Algeria vs Burkina Faso prediction: We expect a draw

Key statistics

• Algeria are unbeaten in their last 11 matches across all competitions (W8, D3).

• Burkina Faso are unbeaten in their last seven games, winning six of them.

• The last three meetings between these sides have all ended in draws.

Correct score prediction: Algeria 1-1 Burkina Faso

Both sides are in strong form and historically hard to separate, pointing towards another stalemate.

Pre-game odds and implied probabilities: Algeria edge the market

• Algeria: 17/20 – 1.85 (54.1%)

• Draw: 21/10 – 3.10 (32.3%)

• Burkina Faso: 3/1 – 4.00 (25.0%)

*Odds via Ladbrokes, subject to change

Algeria are slight favourites, but the odds reflect a competitive contest where a draw or Burkina Faso upset remains plausible.

Most recent head-to-head: Familiar AFCON rivals

This will be the fourth AFCON meeting between Algeria and Burkina Faso. Algeria won the 1996 encounter, while Burkina Faso responded with victory in 1998.

However, their most recent AFCON clash, in 2023, ended 2-2, with late drama. 

Notably, their last three meetings overall have all finished level, underlining how evenly matched these sides have become.

Algeria preview: Managing expectations, not just opponents

Algeria’s 3-0 dismantling of Sudan on matchday one was as assertive as it was efficient. Scoring inside two minutes through Riyad Mahrez immediately, before the winger added a second in the second half and Ibrahim Maza scored a third late on.

After painful group-stage exits in the last two AFCON editions, there is a clear emphasis on maturity over spectacle.

With qualification firmly within reach, Algeria may prioritise structure and discipline here rather than chasing another statement win. 

The Desert Warriors have no injury concerns, and Mahrez is expected to start as he closes in on Aissa Mandi’s national appearance record.

Predicted lineup: Zidane; Belghali, Mandi, Bensebaini, Aït-Nouri; Boudaoui, Bennacer; Mahrez, Chaibi, Amoura; Bounedjah

Algeria’s last five results

• 24.12.25 – Algeria 3-0 Sudan

• 12.12.25 – Algeria 1-2 United Arab Emirates

• 09.12.25 – Algeria 2-0 Iraq

• 06.12.25 – Bahrain 1-5 Algeria

• 03.12.25 – Algeria 0-0 Sudan

Burkina Faso preview: Belief built through adversity

Burkina Faso’s opening match was a psychological lift. Despite dominating Equatorial Guinea and facing the frustration of a late concession, the Stallions showed resilience and composure that has defined their recent rise.

Two goals in stoppage time, first from Georgi Minoungou and then Edmond Tapsoba, transformed potential disappointment into one of the tournament’s early highlights, earning them a 2-1 win.

Brama Traore now faces a selection dilemma, as Minoungou’s explosive cameo may earn him a start, but continuity could also be rewarded after such a dramatic victory. 

With no injuries or suspensions, Burkina Faso have the luxury of choice.

Predicted lineup: Koffi; Yago, Dayo, Tapsoba, Kouassi; Sangaré, Ouédraogo, Touré; Bertrand Traoré, Minoungou, Ouattara

Burkina Faso’s last five results

• 24.12.25 – Burkina Faso 2-1 Equatorial Guinea

• 18.11.25 – Burkina Faso 3-0 Benin

• 14.11.25 – Burkina Faso 3-2 Niger

• 12.10.25 – Burkina Faso 3-1 Ethiopia

• 08.10.25 – Sierra Leone 0-1 Burkina Faso

Player to watch: Riyad Mahrez (Algeria)

Mahrez remains Algeria’s emotional and technical leader. After scoring twice in the opener, his ability to dictate tempo, not just provide goals, could be decisive in a match likely defined by fine margins. If Algeria are to break the deadlock, their captain is the most probable source.