There’s a Basque derby at San Mames this weekend. Our Athletic Club vs Alaves prediction and La Liga betting tips consider whether Los Leones can bounce back from European disappointment on Thursday.
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Athletic Club vs Alaves prediction: Bore draw in Bilbao
Key stats
- Our Athletic Club vs Alaves betting tips take into account that the hosts have drawn 47% of their league matches in 2025.
- Alaves have only lost once away in La Liga since appointing Chacho Coudet as their new coach.
- Four of their last five games have produced under 1.5 goals.
Correct score prediction: Athletic Club 0-0 Alaves
There have been very few goals in the recent league games of these two clubs, and that trend looks likely to continue here.
Athletic are likely to be missing some key attacking players, and they may struggle to break down an Alaves side that has done a good job of grinding out results of late.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Bookies favour the hosts
- HOME: 10/11 (1.91) – 52.4%
- DRAW: 9/4 (3.25) – 30.8%
- AWAY: 7/2 (4.50) – 22.2%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
The hosts are the favourites according to the Athletic Club vs Alaves odds, with an implied probability of 52.4% that they win this match.
They head into the game after a 4-1 defeat at Manchester United in the Europa League, with Mikel Jauregizar’s fine strike not enough to prevent a heavy defeat on aggregate.
As for Alaves, they drew 0-0 at home to Atletico Madrid in their last match in La Liga last weekend.
For more from the upcoming matches in Europe, today’s free football betting tips look at some of the best picks.
Most recent H2Hs: A derby that serves up few goals
Our Athletic Club vs Alaves prediction suggests this match will follow the recent trend that has seen this fixture end with few goals.
All of the last eight competitive meetings have ended with two or fewer goals scored in total, and Alaves haven’t scored on any of their last five competitive trips to San Mames.
Spain La Liga 15/12/24
CD Alaves
Athletic Bilbao
Spain La Liga 16/03/24
Athletic Bilbao
CD Alaves
Spain Copa del Rey 16/01/24
Athletic Bilbao
CD Alaves
Spain La Liga 22/09/23
CD Alaves
Athletic Bilbao
Europe Friendlies 06/08/22
Athletic Bilbao
CD Alaves
Athletic Club preview: Selection problems for Valverde
The home team are missing Alex Berenguer and Andoni Gorosabel to suspension. They also have doubts over the fitness of the key attacking trio of Oihan Sancet, Inaki Williams and Nico Williams.
Predicted Lineup: Simon (GK), Boiro, Vivian, Paredes, De Marcos, Vesga, Ruiz de Galarreta, Canales, U. Gomez, Djalo & Guruzeta
Spain La Liga 11/05/25 W CD Alaves 0 Athletic Bilbao 1 UEFA Europa League 08/05/25 L Man Utd 4 Athletic Bilbao 1 Spain La Liga 04/05/25 D Real Sociedad 0 Athletic Bilbao 0 UEFA Europa League 01/05/25 L Man Utd 3 Athletic Bilbao 0 Spain La Liga 23/04/25 W Las Palmas 0 Athletic Bilbao 1
Alaves preview: Visitors only missing one
The injured Abdel Abqar is the only injury absentee for Alaves who are unlikely to change much following a strong display last time out.
Predicted Lineup: Sivera (GK), M. Sanchez, Garces, Mourino, Tenaglia, Blanco, Guevara, Alena, Guridi, C. Vicente & K. Garcia
Spain La Liga 11/05/25 L Athletic Bilbao 1 CD Alaves 0 Spain La Liga 03/05/25 D Atletico Madrid 0 CD Alaves 0 Spain La Liga 23/04/25 W Real Sociedad 0 CD Alaves 1 Spain La Liga 20/04/25 D Sevilla 1 CD Alaves 1 Spain La Liga 13/04/25 L Real Madrid 1 CD Alaves 0 
Player to watch – Kike Garcia
A victory for the visitors would be a huge step towards safety for Coudet’s team. With 12 goals in 32 appearances in La Liga this term, Kike Garcia is by far their most likely match winner.
Kike dominant in the air
The experienced striker is sure to provide a physical test for the home defence. The 35-year-old averages 3.2 aerial challenges won per game in La Liga, more than any other player who could feature in this game.