Roma vs AC Milan prediction, odds & betting tips – 18/04/2024

Roma
18/04/24 - 20:00

Finished

2

-

1

AC Milan

Roma - AC Milan

UEFA Europa League - Stadio Olimpico

3rd Round

roma vs milan predictions
Gianluca Mancini celebrates scoring in the first leg – Photo by Icon Sport

Roma and AC Milan meet for the second leg of their UEFA Europa League quarter final on Thursday. Our Roma vs AC Milan prediction considers whether the hosts can turn a 1-0 first leg advantage into a place in the last four.

Roma vs AC Milan prediction: Hosts to progress with draw in tight game

Roma vs AC Milan predictions
Our pick

🔥Hot tip

Under 2.5 goals

⚽ Correct score prediction

Roma 1-1 AC Milan

⚽ Double chance prediction

Roma or Draw

Key Stats

  • Our Roma vs AC Milan betting tips take into account that Daniele De Rossi’s team have been involved in six straight matches in all competitions featuring under 2.5 goals.
  • Roma have lost just one of their last 13 matches in all competitions.
  • Milan average just 0.88 goals per game against fellow Italian sides in European competition, winning just five of 17 matches against their compatriots.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Milan slight favourites to win second leg

  • HOME: 17/10 (2.70) – 37.0%
  • DRAW: 9/4 (3.25) – 30.8%
  • AWAY: 13/10 (2.30) – 43.5%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

The visitors are the favourites according to the Roma vs AC Milan odds with an implied probability of 43.5% that they win this game on the night, although Roma still start as favourites to progress into the last four.

Roma come into the match after a difficult few days with their weekend game at Udinese suspended at 1-1 following Evan Ndicka’s collapse. The 24 year old defender was treated quickly and has since been discharged from hospital and it has been confirmed that he didn’t suffer a heart attack.

Milan meanwhile were involved in an entertaining 3-3 draw at Sassuolo on Sunday with Noah Okafor firing in a late leveller.

For more picks from the European games, today’s football betting tips guide you through the best bets from a range of different markets. 

Last five H2Hs: Milan dominant before last week’s first leg

UEFA Europa League 11/04/24

AC Milan

AC Milan

0
Roma

Roma

1

Italy Serie A 14/01/24

AC Milan

AC Milan

3
Roma

Roma

1

Italy Serie A 01/09/23

Roma

Roma

1
AC Milan

AC Milan

2

Italy Serie A 29/04/23

Roma

Roma

1
AC Milan

AC Milan

1

Italy Serie A 08/01/23

AC Milan

AC Milan

2
Roma

Roma

2

Our Roma vs AC Milan prediction suggests the hosts still have plenty of work to do to reach the last four. Milan were unbeaten in nine in all competitions against Roma before the first leg and have won three of the last four meetings in the Italian capital.

Roma Preview: Cristante serves suspension

Evan Ndicka won’t feature after his weekend scare. Bryan Cristante is suspended but a host of regulars will return after weekend rests.

Predicted Lineup: Svilar (GK), Spinazzola, Llorente, Mancini, Celik, Pellegrini, Paredes, Bove, El Shaaray, Lukaku, Dybala

Elite Club Friendlies 31/05/24

W

AC Milan

AC Milan

2

Roma

Roma

5

Italy Serie A 26/05/24

L

Empoli

Empoli

2

Roma

Roma

1

Italy Serie A 19/05/24

W

Genoa

Genoa

0

Roma

Roma

1

Italy Serie A 12/05/24

L

Atalanta

Atalanta

2

Roma

Roma

1

UEFA Europa League 09/05/24

D

Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen

2

Roma

Roma

2

AC Milan Preview: Regulars to return after weekend rotation

Tommaso Pobega and Pierre Kalulu are set to miss the game through injury. Milan also named an experimental weekend eleven with the likes of Olivier Giroud expected to come back in.

Predicted Lineup: Maignan (GK), Hernandez, Tomori, Gabbia, Calabria, Adli, Reijnders, Loftus-Cheek, Leao, Giroud, Pulisic

Elite Club Friendlies 31/05/24

L

Roma

Roma

5

AC Milan

AC Milan

2

Italy Serie A 25/05/24

D

Salernitana

Salernitana

3

AC Milan

AC Milan

3

Italy Serie A 18/05/24

L

Torino

Torino

3

AC Milan

AC Milan

1

Italy Serie A 11/05/24

W

Cagliari

Cagliari

1

AC Milan

AC Milan

5

Italy Serie A 05/05/24

D

Genoa

Genoa

3

AC Milan

AC Milan

3

Player to watch – Romelu Lukaku

Former Inter striker Romelu Lukaku is one of the big danger men for the home team. He has scored seven Europa League goals this term, only three fewer than his Serie A tally.

roma vs ac milan prediction
Romelu Lukaku in action last week – Photo by Icon Sport

An early threat

71% of Lukaku’s goals in the competition this season have come in the first half. Four of his seven strikes have come in the opening 30 minutes.


Mark is a freelance football writer based in Madrid. He regularly attends and covers La Liga matches around Spain, whilst also following football across Europe.